260
FNUS28 KWNS 212145
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

A gradual amplification of upper-level troughing is expected across
the western CONUS this week. The primary fire weather threat will be
across the Southwest as dry, southwest flow gradually increases
through the weekend. Complementary ridging across the eastern U.S.
will provide a more efficient mechanism for moist return flow to the
Great Plains and Midwest. The relatively rich boundary layer
moisture east of the Rockies interacting with a nascent low pressure
system forming day 4/Thursday will promote widespread rainfall
across much of the Central Plains eastward into the Midwest and
Northeastern U.S. by day 6/Saturday as the low translates eastward.

...Southwest...
Synoptic setup with amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced
southwest flow will support increasing fire weather concerns across
much of the Southwest. Effects on fuels from recent rain and higher
elevation snow mainly north of the I-40 corridor will wane as dry
conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire
weather conditions are expected each day across portions of Arizona
and New Mexico through the weekend, with corresponding Critical
probabilities where forecast confidence is higher based on latest
model guidance consensus.

...Southern Georgia and Florida...
Fire weather concerns will remain across the Florida Peninsula as a
subtropical high to the east provides persistent east-southeast
winds across the state through early next week. Marine influence
will mitigate fire weather concerns along the Florida Atlantic Coast
but central and western Florida could see overlapping of sufficient
winds, low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent and
persistently dry fuels to promote at least Elevated fire weather
threat day 3 through day 5. Drying and curing of available fuels
across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia will continue
through the week but winds are not expected to be particularly
strong with no Critical probabilities added.

..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$