799
FNUS28 KWNS 182042
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

A mid/upper-level tough is forecast to deepen across the Pacific
Northwest Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. Thereafter, the evolution
of the trough is somewhat uncertain, largely due to
inter/intra-model variability. Though, many recent solutions now
suggest some form of splitting with a portion of the trough ejecting
across the northern Rockies and another becoming cutoff (or
redeveloping) off/near the coast of California/Oregon through the
remainder of the week.

...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Wind/RH...
Increasing mid-level winds - associated with the aforementioned
trough - will promote a broadening area of dry/breezy southwesterly
flow Day 3/Sunday across portions of the northern Great Basin, far
northeastern California, southeastern Oregon, and southwest Montana.
At this time, locally critical conditions appear most likely across
wind-prone areas of the Snake River Plain in Idaho.

Fire weather conditions are forecast to shift a bit southward while
also increasing in coverage and intensity Day 4/Monday, as the
aforementioned trough continues to deepen. While an area of critical
fire weather conditions appears probable, relatively poor run-to-run
model consistency precludes increasing critical probabilities to 70%
at this time.

Dry/breezy conditions are forecast to linger into Day 5/Tuesday
across the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced
surface pressure gradients should promote lighter surface winds and
locally elevated fire weather conditions.

...Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday: Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible Day 4/Monday into Day
5/Tuesday across portions of northern Great Basin, Northwest, and
northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the
aforementioned trough impinges on the area. While forecast guidance
suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+
inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive
fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty
remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms.

..Elliott.. 07/18/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$