852
FNUS28 KWNS 082153
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
A mid-level trough will translate eastward through the western U.S.
on Day 3/Friday, moving into the Northern Plains by Day 5/Sunday. A
corresponding cold front, increased cloud cover and some
precipitation should mitigate fire weather concerns for much of
region. Deeper subtropical moisture will promote a better
opportunity for widespread wetting rains across the Colorado River
Basin/Four Corners region. Surface trough development over the
weekend in the lee of the Rockies should support increasing
southerly flow through the Great Plains states. A residual dry air
mass across the Southern Plains, increasingly dry fuels and minimal
precipitation leading up to stronger south winds should present an
increasing fire weather threat to portions of OK and northern TX
over the weekend, where 40% critical probabilities remain.

...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday...
Ensemble guidance suggests a less progressive upper-level wave
pattern beginning early next week with broad troughing remaining
across the western U.S. with ridging east of the Rockies. Higher
boundary layer moisture across the Southern Plains should keep
relative humidity sufficiently high to reduce the fire weather
threat within continued southerly flow. However, frontal passages
and associated precipitation could be confined to the
central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest, keeping the Southern
Plains states under warm and mainly dry conditions, further aiding
in drying/curing of fuels.

..Williams.. 10/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$