168
FNUS28 KWNS 232205
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

Upper-level troughing will continue across the northwestern US
through early next week with mid-level shortwaves occasionally
rotating through the southwesterly flow aloft. Hot, dry, and breezy
conditions will continue into early next week across much of the
Inland Northwest, northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and
northern Plains. The Four Corners high will likely slowly shift east
over the southern High Plains late this weekend and early next week,
with daily monsoonal thunderstorms also likely to continue across
much of the Four Corners region.

...Northwestern US...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will overspread the
Inland Northwest, northwest Great Basin, and much of the northern
Rockies onto the northern High Plains Day 3/Saturday. West-southwest
winds will increase amid strengthening winds aloft and an onshore
pressure gradient. RH will decrease as drier air continues to filter
into the region leading to long duration elevated/critical
conditions with possible locally extremely critical conditions
developing within the 70% area. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms are likely to develop across portions of
central/eastern Montana on Day 3/Saturday as well.

Dry and windy conditions will continue across the same areas on Day
4/Sunday, while likely expanding farther onto the northern Plains. A
70% area was introduced extending northward from the Sierra Front
into southern Oregon/vicinity, with another 70% area in northern
Montana. Some forecast guidance indicates that critical conditions
will develop again in the Columbia Basin, but only an upgrade to 40%
was done at this time. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are
possible in southeast Montana/vicinity on Day 4/Sunday and will be
monitored for potential DryT probabilities going forward.

Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 5/Monday across
portions of the northern Great Basin/vicinity and possibly across
the Inland Northwest and into the northern Rockies. These dry and
breezy conditions may continue into Day 6/Tuesday, but there is too
much forecast uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level
ridge building back over the West with stronger southwest flow
retreating to the northwest.

Fuels will continue to cure across the northwestern US due to
consecutive days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions, which will
allow more areas to have receptive fuels and thus be included in
fire risk areas going forward. This period represents a critical
fire weather pattern as hot, dry, and windy conditions will follow
lightning. Growth on existing fires and new emerging fires is
expected.

...Southern Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely early to mid next week
across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. A 40% area was
introduced to reflect this with an expansion and additional areas
likely needed in subsequent outlooks as fuels rapidly cure.

..Nauslar.. 07/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$