Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 072053
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

Subtropical ridging over the western U.S. is forecast to briefly
intensify Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday before it begins to break
down later Day 4/Tuesday as mid-level troughing re-develops across
the West and persists into next weekend.

...Northwest: Day 4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop along/east of the
Cascades Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday across portions of
Washington and Oregon. While elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions are possible, probabilities for Critical
conditions currently remains less than 40% due to continued
run-to-run ensemble model variability.

...Great Basin into the Southwest: Day 5/Wednesday - Day
8/Saturday...
Dry and windy conditions are forecast to develop over the western
U.S. by mid-week as the aforementioned western U.S. trough impinges
on the area. While some increase in fire weather conditions is
expected from mid-week into next weekend, especially considering
several preceding days of dry/windy conditions, uncertainty
currently remains a bit too large to introduce probabilities for
Critical fire weather conditions. At this time, ensemble guidance
suggests elevated to locally critical conditions are most likely
across portions of Utah and Nevada.

...Dry Thunderstorms: Northwest into the northern Great Basin and
northern Rockies...
Thunderstorm potential will increase across the Northwest Day
3/Monday before shifting into the Great Basin and northern Rockies
Day 4/Tuesday through much of the extended period. While dry
thunderstorms will be possible, uncertainty on coverage, mode (wet
vs dry), and fuel receptiveness precludes introducing an area at
this time.

..Elliott.. 06/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$