204
FNUS28 KWNS 182150
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

...Synopsis...
An established ridge over the Intermountain West will amplify and
the pressure gradient will tighten on Day 3/Thursday as a trough
approaches the west CONUS coast. A mid-level low pressure system
will near the Pacific Northwest coast on Day 4/Friday as the
upper-level jet max peaks over southern/central OR. This will
provide widespread lift to portions of north-central OR and then
much of central/eastern WA under the left exit region of the jet
streak on the afternoon of Day 4/Friday. The trough will begin to
lift northeastward as it becomes slightly negatively-tilted
progressing into Day 5/Saturday. High pressure remains in place over
much of the southwestern half of the CONUS with shortwave trough
passages periodically moving across the crest of the high through
the northern states. While slight differences in timing of the
aforementioned trough remain, the overall pattern evolution remains
similar amongst various ensemble forecast guidance. As we turn the
corner toward next week, the ridge broadens and builds over the
Intermountain West once again.

...Pacific Northwest/Northern California/Great Basin...
The Pacific Northwest and immediately neighboring areas of northern
California and the Great Basin will remain foci through at least the
first half of the extended forecast. Starting on Day 3/Thursday and
continuing through Day 5/Saturday, expect multiple consecutive days
of gusty southwesterly winds combined with warm and dry weather as
the aforementioned large trough approaches from the west.
Near-normal conditions in the short-term followed by increasing
above-normal temperatures Day 2/Wednesday through Day 4/Friday will
culminate in a cold front passage on Day 5/Saturday as the trough
approaches. Given the jet aloft and surface conditions that would
support deep daytime mixing, a favorable pattern remains in place
for dry and breezy weather to overlap very dry fuels across
northeastern CA, southern OR, and northwestern NV. 40% Critical
probabilities were maintained on Day 4/Thursday through Day
6/Saturday along with a widespread 10% probability of Dry
Thunderstorms over much of the Pacific Northwest and the nearby
northern Rockies. This pattern of aforementioned upper-level
support, limited but adequate (precipitable water values near
0.5-0.7") moisture, fast-moving (25-35 mph) storms, and dry fuels
(ERCs near the 80-95th percentile) remaining in place with minimal
precipitation expected from the previous day, an area of 10% Dry
Thunderstorm risk was introduced over portions of the northern
Pacific Northwest and the nearby northern Rockies regions. Some of
this activity may linger through the night between the two risk
areas as well given the strong dynamic lift from aloft.

...Southern Plains...
On Day 6/Sunday and Day 7/Monday, a cold front will move across the
southern Plains, increasing fire weather risk in southwesterly flow
ahead of the front as it progresses southeastward. Current ensemble
forecast guidance suggests sustained 10-20 mph south to
southwesterly winds will combine with afternoon RHs near 15-20%
across the TX/OK Panhandles and surrounding areas with critically
dry fuels.

...Northern Plains...
Evolution of the post-frontal northwesterly winds over the northern
High Plains remains a concern on Day 6/Sunday. However, current
forecast guidance suggests that RHs are unlikely to reach Critical
thresholds and fuels also remain marginally receptive in some areas.
This region will be monitored with future outlook issuances as
guidance becomes more clear.

..Stearns.. 08/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$