069
FNUS28 KWNS 052142
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

An upper-level trough will track over the Southeast weakening and
displacing the Bermuda High early this week. An associated cold
front will push off the Atlantic Coast and through the Florida
Peninsula Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday with a secondary cold front
weakening as it moves through the Southeast. A cooler drier airmass
will remain over much of the eastern US through most of this
upcoming week, with another upper-level trough and associated cold
front forecast to move through the region Day 7/Friday - Day
8/Saturday. Upper-level short-wave ridging will break down over the
West early this week as westerly flow strengthens from the southern
Cascades through the Colorado Rockies. The southern half of the West
will remain warm and dry for the outlook period.

...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula...
Dry/breezy pre-frontal conditions are expected across portions of
the Florida Peninsula Day 3/Monday with dry/breezy post-frontal
conditions possible through mid-week. Uncertainty remains regarding
the extent and amount of precipitation on the Florida Peninsula as
the cold front arrives and an upper-level trough passes over the
region. Thus a 40% area was maintained on Day 3/Monday, but
probabilities were not included the following days due to the
uncertainty regarding the forecast precipitation and if the
post-frontal dry/breezy conditions will approach critical
thresholds.

...Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest onto central High Plains...
As an upper-level jet moves over the Intermountain West, the
potential for overlapping critical winds/RH increases from portions
of the Southwest onto the central High Plains. However,
ongoing/recent precipitation in these areas and forecast uncertainty
regarding where critical winds/RH may develop preclude from
introducing probabilities at this time. If stronger winds extend
farther south where drier fuels exist, then probabilities of
critical conditions will increase as a dry airmass will be in place
over the Southwest.

...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday: Southwest into the Great Basin...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the West Day 7/Friday
through next weekend. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty
remains regarding the timing and strength of the trough, thus,
precluding introducing probabilities of critical conditions at this
time. If forecast guidance trends hold, then probabilities will need
to be introduced across portions of the Southwest and possibly into
the Great Basin.

..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$