332
FNUS28 KWNS 052159
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will bring multiple rounds of
enhanced flow across portions of the western US from the
Intermoutain West into the Great Basin and Southwest. Multiple
periods of critical fire weather will be likely from D3/Sunday
through D6/Wednesday. Beyond the mid-week, flow aloft weakens
gradually. A few areas of locally critical conditions may persist
across the southwest D7/Thursday.

...Day 3/Sunday...
The upper-level low will advance towards the Northern Rockies, with
a trailing cold front further south and east.  The strongest winds
aloft will overspread eastern UT, northern and eastern AZ, and
western CO. Expect sustained southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph to
overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5 to 15 percent,
across the Southern Rockies and Southwest. The 70 percent Critical
probability remains across southern and eastern UT, northern AZ, and
western CO. 40 percent Critical probabilities encompass the
remaining portions of southeast NV, northwest NM, and central WY
where fuels are receptive. While confidence is not yet high enough
to warrant a drawn area, a non-zero chance of mixed dry/wet
thunderstorms over northern UT will be watched with future forecast
guidance.

Strong mid-level flow will also overspread portions of southern
Idaho on D3/Sunday. A secondary 70% critical region was introduced
across the Snake River Plain. In this region, strong westerly
surface flow around 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15 percent and critically dry fuels.

...Day 4/Monday...
The region enters a temporary synoptic transition phase between the
departing northern Rockies trough and the next approaching Pacific
system. Broad and persistent southwesterly flow will continue across
Southwest and Great Basin. Deeply mixed profiles under clear skies
will generate localized breezy conditions with 15 to 25 mph gusts
amid relative humidity reductions to 5 to 15%. The 70% area was
maintained with this update across southern Utah into northern
Arizona with a slight expansion into western Colorado. 40% Critical
probabilities encompass the remaining portions of southeast NV,
western CO, and central WY where fuels are receptive.

...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday...
Medium-range models and ensemble guidance show strong consensus for
a secondary, potentially more intense trough digging into the
western US again by mid-week. Ahead of this feature, an amplified
pressure gradient will trigger strong south/southwest surface winds.
This will likely cause continued widespread critical fire weather
conditions across a large swath of the Great Basin and Southwest. A
70 percent Critical probability was maintained across southern UT
and northern AZ D5/Tuesday where confidence is highest. Slight
expansion of the 70% was given in western Colorado where confidence
in stronger winds has increased. A 40 percent Critical probability
also continues Tuesday and Wednesday in nearby areas including far
eastern NV and portions of central WY.

A small 40% area was introduced across northern Arizona into
southern Utah D7/Thursday. Consensus is increasing that continued
overlap of dry/windy conditions will continue into this period.
After multiple rounds of windy/dry conditions fuels in the region
will be critically dry.

..Thornton.. 06/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$