985
FNUS28 KWNS 062145
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

...Discussion...
An upper shortwave trough will eject from the Intermountain West
into the Upper Midwest early this week, allowing high pressure to
retrograde into the western CONUS through Day 4/Wednesday.
Meanwhile, persistent ridging over the southern Plains will continue
to promote above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the
forecast period, although accompanied by relatively light surface
winds. Predictability wanes beyond Day 6/Friday with disagreement in
extended ensemble guidance on the evolution of the upper pattern --
particularly with eastern Pacific troughing and the remnants of
Hurricane Marie. However, members are generally in agreement for
another shortwave trough to sag into the Pacific Northwest from
British Columbia on Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday, increasing dry
southwesterly flow over the northern Great Basin. Fuels are expected
to remain marginal (60-80th percentile ERCs), thus hindering broader
fire concerns.

As the aforementioned upper trough translates eastward on Day
3/Tuesday, strong southwesterly flow aloft should allow dry and
breezy conditions to continue across the north-central states. 40%
Critical probabilities have been maintained across parts of the
northern Plains on Day 3/Tuesday where RH values of less than 20%
and sustained winds of 15-20 mph will overlap rainfall-neglected
fuels (and forecast ERCs remain at the 80-95th percentiles). On Days
4-6/Wednesday-Friday, dry and locally breezy conditions will
continue across southern Wyoming, although displaced from the most
receptive fuels.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$