360
FNUS28 KWNS 052129
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High
Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather
potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble
solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a
ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by
early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude
upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant
chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that
most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential
through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert
Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these
regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall
potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across
parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops
with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies.
D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per
GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend
and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal
intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass
already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain
entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the
teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most
probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may
emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into
early next week.

..Moore.. 02/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$