178
FNUS28 KWNS 012052
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

A mid/upper-level trough is currently forecast to remain over
portions of the Pacific Northwest from Day 3/Sunday through Day
8/Friday. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging, initially centered
over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to
gradually build across portions of the Great Basin through the week.
There remains a large amount of intra/inter-model and run-to-run
variability, regarding how far northwest the ridge is able to build.

...Great Basin...
Several days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected atop
receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and adjacent
areas - near the base of the aforementioned trough. Elevated to at
least locally critical conditions are possible from Day 3/Sunday
through Day 5/Tuesday, with 40% probabilities for Critical
conditions each day. While fire weather concerns may continue across
these areas beyond Day 5/Tuesday, confidence is currently too low to
introduce probabilities for Critical conditions due to the uncertain
trough/ridge evolution.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of
northern California, far northwestern Nevada, southeastern Oregon,
and southwestern Idaho Day 3/Sunday and perhaps into Day 4/Monday
before thunderstorm potential decreases across the West.

Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of
Arizona Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday, where fuels remain
critically receptive. Though, uncertainty regarding
placement/coverage is currently too large to introduce probabilities
for dry thunderstorms.

..Elliott.. 08/01/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$