349
FNUS28 KWNS 092142
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

...Synopsis...
A decaying mid-level trough will enhance zonal flow over the
northern U.S. as a strong cold front navigates the north-central
states, promoting fire weather concerns where fuels remain receptive
on Day 3/Friday. An upper-level low will enter the Pacific Northwest
and Northern Rockies this weekend with an accompanying 60-70 kt jet
over the Great Basin. This pattern may provide broader precipitation
chances and much cooler temperatures to the northwestern CONUS, thus
subduing fire weather concerns; however, strong southwesterly winds
amid critically low RH values may support a broader fire weather
threat in the Great Basin. As troughing departs and enters the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week, a very dry and much
cooler airmass will reside over the western CONUS. Simultaneously,
ridging is forecast to build across the Southeast favoring drier
conditions and above-normal temperatures.

...Day 3/Friday - Northern High Plains...
Poor overnight humidity recoveries are expected across eastern WY,
western SD, and the NE Panhandle leading into Day 3/Friday. As a
result, RH values will quickly decline to 10-20% as winds accelerate
ahead of an advancing cold front. Sustained westerly winds may
approach 25 mph across the terrain-favored plains, then shift to
northerly as the front passes. Notably, guidance indicates a 50-80%
probability of wind gusts exceeding 35 mph through the afternoon.
40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across southeastern
WY, northwestern NE Panhandle, and southwestern SD to account for
this threat.

...Day 4/Saturday - Northeastern California and Great Basin...
A robust upper low will impinge upon the northwestern U.S. on Day
4/Saturday, amplifying west-southwesterly flow over northern CA and
the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance depicts expansive 75-90%
probabilities of wind speeds exceeding 25 mph (50-80% chance of
sustained winds exceeding 30 mph) amid critically low RH in
northeastern CA and northern NV. Despite modest ERCs,
drought-stressed fuels could support new ignitions given the
severity of meteorological conditions. As a result, 40% Critical
probabilities were introduced across the region.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$