Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
848 FNUS28 KWNS 082153 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Day 3/Monday - Southeast and Gulf Coast States... A highly amplified large-scale trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS. Within the base of the trough, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a dry post-frontal air mass across the Southeast (including the FL Peninsula). While this may promote elevated fire-weather conditions, preceding rainfall along the passing cold front limits confidence in the development of critical conditions -- precluding probabilities at this time. Farther west, dry and modestly breezy post-frontal conditions will continue across much of the Gulf Coast states. Locally elevated conditions are possible, though the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the overall risk. ...Day 4/Tuesday - Central TX... Moderate midlevel westerly flow will become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. Embedded within the flow, medium-range guidance depicts a subtle/embedded midlevel impulse moving into the southern Plains. This will promote a deepening lee trough and dry/breezy southerly return flow across the southern Plains. Given modestly receptive fuels across central TX, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Days 7-8/Friday-Saturday... A substantial midlevel trough will advance eastward across the West, with strong flow impinging on the Rockies and eventually the Great Plains. While timing/evolution of the midlevel trough is uncertain, the overall pattern may favor increasing fire-weather potential across parts of the central/southern Plains late in the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 11/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$