512
FNUS28 KWNS 222145
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

Upper-level troughing will develop over the Pacific Northwest into
the northern Rockies late this week through the weekend. Mid-level
southwest-westerly flow of 30-60 knots will overspread the region
with a tightening onshore pressure gradient and lee troughing east
of the Cascades and northern Rockies. The Four Corners High will
likely slowly shift east-southeast towards the southern High Plains,
with daily monsoonal thunderstorms remaining likely across the
greater Four Corners region into early next week.

...Northwestern US...
Overall, a critical fire weather pattern will continue to unfold
through the weekend across the northwestern US with lightning
followed by hot, dry, and windy conditions. Elevated to critical
fire weather conditions are expected across the Inland Northwest,
northwest Great Basin, and extending through northern Montana Day
3/Friday as west-southwest winds strengthen amid a drying and
warming airmass. Critical winds/RH are likely to develop across
portions of north-central and northeast Montana, but this will
likely act more as a curing event.

Winds will strengthen on Day 4/Saturday across the Inland Northwest
and into northwest Montana, with critical conditions expected again
here and from south-central/southeast Oregon extending into
northeast California, northwest Nevada, and southwest Idaho.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in
portions of central Montana on Day 4/Saturday, but there remains too
much uncertainty regarding the overlap of receptive fuels and drier
thunderstorm development to include dry thunderstorm probabilities
at this time. However, dry and breezy conditions are likely across
portions of western/central Montana Day 4/Saturday.

Dry and breezy conditions will continue from the northwest Great
Basin through central/southern Idaho into Montana on Day 5/Sunday
and possibly Day 6/Monday. There remains forecast uncertainty
regarding lingering dry and breezy conditions across portions of the
Inland Northwest, and the likelihood of critical conditions in
portions of the northwest Great Basin and northern Montana. Much of
this depends on the evolution of the upper-level troughing over the
northwest US. Another source of forecast uncertainty is how areas
that currently have less receptive fuels in portions of northeast
Nevada, central/eastern Idaho, and southwest Montana will respond to
multiple consecutive days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions.

...Plains...
Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will likely develop across portions
of the Plains during the outlook period. Fuels, especially fine
fuels, will begin to cure and perhaps rapidly. How this pattern
affects these areas will continued to be monitored.

..Nauslar.. 07/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$