486
FNUS28 KWNS 302144
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

...Synopsis...
Late this week into the weekend, the subtropical ridge is expected
to shift westward over more of the Southwest and amplify over the
Rockies by early next week as a trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft from CA, through the
Great Basin, and into the Rockies is expected with this pattern. By
mid to late next week the subtropical ridge will generally remain
anchored over the Southwest.

...Day 3/Friday...
A relatively small area of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop
during the afternoon along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
extending west to east from northern NV into the Snake River Plain
and Caribou Range of ID. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave
trough will also aid in ascent later in the day/evening. Forecast
soundings across this region continue to suggest low PWATs atop
receptive fuels.

...Day 4/Saturday...
An increasing mid-level height gradient between a subtle shortwave
trough, traversing the Great Basin, and the subtropical ridge to its
south is expected. A very dry and deeply mixed boundary layer below
this stronger flow will promote momentum transfer aloft across
northern AZ and UT. Only minor adjustments were made to the low
probability area for Day 4/Saturday based on the latest extended
model and ensemble trends.

...Day 6/Monday...
After a slight decrease in wind speeds across the Southwest and
Great Basin Day 5/Sunday, an approaching Pacific trough will again
result in increasing mid-level flow on the northwestern fringe of
the ridge. Very similar to Day 4/Saturday`s threat, a low critical
probability area has been introduced for central UT and far
northwestern AZ since there is very reasonable agreement within the
extended solutions and ensembles for this pattern.

..Barnes.. 07/30/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$