506
FNUS28 KWNS 102048
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will enter the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies this weekend with an accompanying 60-70 kt jet over the
Great Basin. This pattern may provide broader precipitation chances
and much cooler temperatures to the northwestern CONUS, thus
subduing fire weather concerns; however, strong southwesterly winds
amid critically low RH values may support a broader fire weather
threat in the Great Basin on Day 3/Saturday. As troughing departs
into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region early next week, a
very dry airmass and near normal temperatures will reside over the
western CONUS. Simultaneously, ridging is forecast to build across
the Southeast favoring drier conditions and above normal
temperatures.

...Day 3/Saturday...
A robust upper low will impinge upon the northwestern U.S. on Day
3/Saturday, amplifying west-southwesterly flow over northern CA and
the western Great Basin. Ensemble guidance depicts expansive 60-80%
probabilities of wind speeds exceeding 25 mph amid critically low RH
in northeastern CA, northern NV, southeastern OR, and southern ID.
Despite modest ERCs, drought-stressed fuels could support new
ignitions given the severity of meteorological conditions. As a
result, 40% Critical probabilities were maintained across the
region. Farther west, gusty west/southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph
and RH values of 15-25% are expected in the Sacramento Valley.
Marginal fuels preclude Critical probabilities at this time;
however, new ignitions cannot be ruled out within localized dry
fuels.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$