980
FNUS28 KWNS 172201
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday...
A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and
north-central U.S. will bring an expanding area of heat and dry
conditions to much of the Intermountain West. A mid-level trough
should continue to promote some thunderstorm potential across
central ID/southwest MT Day 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday before translating
over the ridge axis into the Northern Plains by Day 5/Thursday.
Farther south, breezy south-southwest winds and dry conditions will
keep fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin where
fuels remain very dry. Monsoon moisture is expected to surge into
the Lower Colorado River Basin and lower desert areas of southern CA
and NV by midweek, pushing northward into the northern Great Basin
by Day 5/Thursday. High-based thunderstorms are expected on the
fringes of the monsoon moisture as early as Day 4/Wednesday across
portions of the Great Basin.

...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday...
Building heat and instability as the ridge strengthens will promote
drying of fuels as well as support a plume dominated fire weather
environment across interior portions of CA, although overall surface
winds will be light. High-based thunderstorms as mid and upper-level
monsoon moisture moves into southern CA could bring dry lightning
concerns mainly east of the coastal plain areas. Overall uncertainty
remains regarding magnitude of monsoon moisture plume spreading into
the Desert Southwest, Great Basin and southern California. This
precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long
term at this time.

..Williams.. 08/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$