243
FNUS28 KWNS 172144
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

...Discussion...
A broad mid-level ridge will dominate over much of Intermountain
West through next week as troughing across the northeastern U.S.
amplifies midweek. Monsoon moisture trapped within weak flow under
the ridge and afternoon instability will support daily afternoon
showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across the Colorado
River Basin and eastern Great Basin. This higher RH environment and
slow moving, terrain anchored convection will mitigate ignition
potential. Mainly dry conditions will persist across the interior
portions of the Pacific Northwest and CA through Day 4/Monday. Short
wave impulses on the western periphery of the upper ridge could
bring thunderstorms back into CA as early as Monday. Longer term
model guidance suggests better chances of dry thunderstorm impacts
for the Pacific Northwest emerging for the latter part of next week
as moisture from tropical storm Elida gets wrapped up in a
mid-latitude trough.

The building ridge aloft and lack of robust surface pressure
features across the West will keep winds relatively light across the
western coastal states where fuels are more receptive. Longer term
ensemble guidance suggests a return to breezy conditions across
portions of CA and the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 7/Thursday
where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added to
northeastern CA/southern OR. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests a
more inland push of an upper-trough into the Pacific Northwest on
Day 8/Friday, with a broader 40 percent critical probability area
introduced into much of central OR, northeastern CA and adjacent
northwest NV. The thunderstorm threat across CA and the Pacific
Northwest remains very sensitive to the expected track of a
subtropical moisture plume from tropical storm Elida. Thunderstorms
could threaten central/northern CA as early as Day 5/Tuesday, moving
into the Pacific Northwest by Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday. For this
outlook, introduced a 10 percent dry thunderstorm probability for
initial surge of subtropical moisture into northern CA and southern
OR, although this could change based on future model guidance.

..Williams.. 07/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$