227
FNUS28 KWNS 262149
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

Sub-tropical ridging over the central and eastern US is forecast to
intensify late this weekend and through much of next week. At the
same time, broad troughing will develop over the West, allowing for
increased thunderstorm chances across the Northwest. Fire-weather
potential should gradually increase through the extended forecast
period.

...Northwest...
Broad Pacific troughing should begin to develop across the West
Coast early next week as the upper ridge intensifies to the east.
Flow aloft will gradually turn more meridional as several weak
disturbances move northeastward across the West. An increase in
mid-level moisture (PWATS 0.7-1 inch) is likely with the broad
troughing. This should support a general increase in thunderstorm
chances over much of the region through next week.

Current guidance shows isolated thunderstorms beginning as by late
D3/Monday into early D4/Tuesday across northern CA and southern OR.
These initial storms will likely be dry given steep lapse rates and
PWATS generally below one inch. Confidence in greater storm coverage
and lightning potential increases into D5/Wednesday as a more
pronounced perturbation is forecast to move across the northern
Great Basin farther into the Northwest. However, a slow increase in
low to mid-level moisture each day and continued rainfall should
being to limit the opportunity for dry lightning strikes, creating
uncertainty on IsoDryT coverage. Some lightning threat is likely to
persist through D6/Thursday, though details remain too limited to
introduce probabilities.

...Great Basin...
As the upper ridge builds, flow aloft will generally weaken through
the next several days. The exception to this may be ahead of the
stronger perturbation midweek next week. While not overly
pronounced, some guidance shows enhanced flow aloft over spreading
drier parts of the eastern Great basin D5/Wednesday. This could
support some dry and breezy conditions favorable for elevated to
locally critical fire-weather concerns through the end of the week.

..Lyons.. 07/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$