860
FNUS28 KWNS 052056
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

...Discussion...
An upper shortwave trough will eject from the Intermountain West
into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early next week, allowing
high pressure to retrograde into the western CONUS through Day
5/Wednesday. Meanwhile, persistent ridging over the southern Plains
will continue to promote above normal temperatures and dry
conditions through the forecast period, although accompanied by
relatively light surface winds. Predictability wanes beyond Day
6/Thursday with disagreement in extended ensemble guidance on the
evolution of the upper pattern -- particularly with eastern Pacific
troughing and the remnants of Hurricane Marie. However, members are
generally in agreement for another shortwave trough to sag into the
Pacific Northwest from British Columbia on Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday,
transporting cooler temperatures and precipitation chances to the
region.

As the aforementioned upper trough translates northeastward through
Day 4/Tuesday, advecting subtropical moisture will provide
opportunities for accumulating rainfall along the Central
U.S./Canadian border. Despite somewhat cooler daytime temperatures,
a drier airmass and strong southwesterly flow aloft should bring
fire weather concerns back into the north-central states early next
week. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced across parts
of the northern Plains on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday where RH values of
less than 20% and gusty winds of 15-20 mph will overlap
rainfall-neglected fuels (and forecast ERCs remain at the 80-95th
percentiles).

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$