214
FNUS28 KWNS 282158
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 061200Z

...Day 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
An approaching mid-level trough will aid in northward moisture
transport into northern California beginning Day 2/Sunday. Steeper
mid-level lapse rates and instability along with dry surface
conditions will promote a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm environment
across northern California into south central Oregon for Day
3/Monday. Trough advancement will be rather slow through midweek,
keeping dry thunderstorm threat across northern California into
southern/southeastern Oregon by Day 4/Tuesday. Farther east,
uniform southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough will promote
strong south winds at the surface from the Mojave Desert into much
of central and eastern Nevada. Enhanced southerly winds will be
complimented with low relative humidity, hot temperatures as well as
dry fuels, prompted inclusion of 40 percent probability of critical
fire weather conditions for Day 4/Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will
simultaneously be surging northwestward into the Intermountain West
early next week. The initial push of elevated moisture along with
daytime heating will promote dry thunderstorm development along the
higher terrain of central and southwestern Utah on Day 4/Tuesday.
The thunderstorm threat extends into Day 5/Wednesday across much of
the Intermountain West, but some uncertainty exists in expected
magnitude of monsoon moisture which could enhance precipitation
amounts, roughly east of the Nevada/Utah border.

...Day 6-8/Thursday-Friday...
The upper-level ridge axis shifts eastward into the Great Plains and
Midwest by the end of the week with a potential negatively tilted
mid-level trough moving into the West Coast. The attendant mid-level
jet maxima will present a broad fire weather threat across portions
of the Great Basin Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday where minimal rainfall
from monsoon moisture is expected. 40 percent probabilities of
critical fire weather conditions were added to portions of southern
Nevada, western Utah and northwestern Arizona.

..Williams.. 06/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$