830
FXUS65 KCYS 281020
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
420 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected in central and
  northern Carbon County on Saturday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday with a
  very limited risk of stronger activity, primarily for the
  Nebraska Panhandle.

- Warm temperatures and daily coverage of scattered afternoon
  and evening showers and thunderstorms expected for Sunday
  through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A few thunderstorms are noted this afternoon across the Nebraska
Panhandle with scattered weak echoes further west into Wyoming.
Overall environmental analysis indicates instability is limited
to just the panhandle, with a much more prime environment for
severe potential just east of our CWA. With conditions unlikely
to strengthen over the next couple of hours, it`s doubtful
we`ll see much more than the activity already ongoing, perhaps a
few scattered showers or maybe another isolated storm or two,
but overall severe potential will be minimal at best and peaking
currently. That being said, our usual suspects of virga producing
some stronger to near severe winds could occur in Wyoming,
supported by inverted V soundings. Look out for brief periods of
strong breezes. Meanwhile further west dry conditions alongside
breezy winds and RH values into the low teens to single digits
are promoting critical fire weather conditions, with another
chance of this tomorrow though winds will be a bit tempered
compared to today.

Overnight precipitation and winds will wane. Into Saturday, a
cold front stalling out into our region will help be the focal
point for new shower and thunderstorm development, but once
again a lack of moisture will hinder any potential activity and
the marginal risk for stronger to severe thunderstorms has been
nearly removed from our area because of this. A similar setup to
today including gusty virga showers will once again be possible
though in an inverted V environment, with this lack of moisture
also fueling another potential red flag environment for a
smaller portion of Carbon County.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Sunday...Somewhat cooler temperatures in the wake of a cold front
and with an increase in cloud cover. Looks like adequate low and mid
level moisture for scattered late day showers and thunderstorms,
mainly east of I-25.

Monday...Temperatures about the same as on Sunday, with low level
upslope east winds and 700 mb temperatures near 10 Celsius. Despite
adequate low and mid level moisture, we should see a decrease in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms due to ridging aloft.

Tuesday...A warming trend develops as 700 mb temperatures rise to
near 15 Celsius. Adequate moisture aloft for isolated late day
showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of I-25.

Wednesday...The warming trend continues as 700 mb temperatures reach
16 Celsius. Moisture looks similar to Tuesday, thus we anticipate
isolated late day showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday-Friday...Similar temperatures to Wednesday with 700 mb
temperatures near 16 Celsius. Adequate low and mid level moisture
again, thus isolated to scattered late day showers and thunderstorms
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Winds will ease to start the TAF period and may be variable in
direction through the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop Saturday afternoon and evening. The most likely
impact is gusty and erratic winds with a few lightning strikes,
but a brief VIS drop is possible at the NE terminals. A
backdoor cold front will slip across the High Plains late
Saturday evening, which could bring low CIGs into the area, but
confidence is too low to add to the TAF at this time.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for WYZ421-422-427.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...WFO-RIW