514
FXUS65 KCYS 182258
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
358 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather expected
  through Wednesday night. Mountain snow showers possible each
  day.

- Models continue to alternate on the strength and placement of
  a low later this week, but expecting at least some
  precipitation and snow with this system, mainly south of the
  North Platte River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 311 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Low stratus has hung around longer than anticipated in the northern
Nebraska panhandle and as a result, temperatures are cooler than
originally forecast. Despite the coolness in the northern
panhandle, the rest of the CWA remains rather mild with current
temperatures anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above average.
Overnight, mostly quiet conditions are expected. Ample mid-level
moisture out west along with southwest flow could lead to some
orographic snow showers in the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges.
Any accumulations will be light as synoptic forcing remains weak
under the upper-level ridge.

Ridging will still be in place during the day Wednesday, leading to
another mild day across the forecast area. Temperatures will be a
bit warmer on Wednesday, with highs about 10 degrees above average
for most locations. East of the Laramie Range, lower elevation
locations will have the potential to make it into the mid 60s!
Temperatures are not expected to be as warm out west as cloud cover
will still be prevalent from mid-level moisture. A few weak
disturbances moving through the ridge aloft could spark some showers
during the day for locations out west as well. Southwest flow is
still expected so orographically induced snow showers will be
possible in the high terrain. Heading into the overnight hours, mid-
level moisture will spread eastward. With help from forcing from a
potent trough just to the west of the CWA, showers could move into
the high plains per the HRRR. However, will continue to monitor this
as most other models do not show precipitation chances during this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

The long term will be semi-active as a system moves across the
region Thursday into Friday, but with the bulk of this expected
to our south only a glancing blow of precipitation is expected
with overall fairly light impacts. Following this, ridging and
a slight warming trend is expected through the weekend, with
another southerly tracking low possibly glancing us on Monday,
but moving into Tuesday deep troughing from the north should
bring a cold front just beyond the long term that will cause
temperatures to drop notably and further precipitation chances
as we begin to approach Thanksgiving.

At the start of the long term a cutoff low will skirt to our
south with low overall impacts expected for the region. While
we will see a glancing blow and some precipitation chances
primarily along the I-80 corridor, ensembles and deterministic
are beginning to agree that the track of this system will be too
far south to bring more noteworthy impacts to the CWA. Areas of
showers and high elevation snow Thursday into Friday are
expected, with some snow possibly mixing into rain overnight
into Friday morning for areas east of the Laramie Range, but
minimal accumulations are expected if any. What can be expected
is that areas that see precipitation will have lower highs on
Friday, with our western zones and areas along and south of I-80
stuck in the 40`s for the most part, while areas further north
should peak somewhere in the low to mid 50`s for the day. Over
the weekend the region will remain generally in between systems,
though some weak transient ridging should overspread and keep us
dry and mostly clear, with areas east of the Laramie Range
warming back up into the widespread 50`s. Into Monday we`ll see
another low to the south of the region and guidance wants to
track this system even further south, bringing almost nil
impacts to sensible weather concerns. But overnight Monday into
Tuesday a deep trough from a stout Canadian low will begin to
descend into the region, with a cold front knocking on the
doorstep of the CWA by the very end of the forecast period - a
sign of the cooler temperatures to come as we move into the
holiday timeframe. This system could include rain and snowfall,
so keep a lookout for updates on this as we get closer to this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 356 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. High resolution
guidance is showing a small band of lowered CIGs near KBFF
during the early morning hours, but do not have this in the TAFs
at this time due to low confidence. Otherwise widespread CIGs
becoming high at FEW to SCT. Winds generally 10 kts or less
through tomorrow morning, but into the afternoon KRWL/KCDR/KAIA
may see some stronger gusts into the 20-25 knot range.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG