532
FXUS65 KCYS 022328
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
528 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild to warm temperatures will continue through Friday, before
  a potent weather disturbance aloft and its associated cold
  front bring cooler and wetter weather for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Current visible satellite imagery shows a mostly sunny day with
a few fair weather cumulus developing over parts of the high
terrain. Skies will remain mostly clear throughout the afternoon
and into the evening with mild temperatures. For the most part,
quiet conditions will continue into the overnight hours.
Western Nebraska could see some breezy conditions after 9 PM
tonight as a nocturnal low-level jet develops over the
panhandle. Decent subsidence will exist which could help these
winds make it down to the surface. Cannot rule out occasional
gusts over 30 MPH around and after midnight tonight.

Upper-level ridging over the center of the country will gradually
push eastward throughout the day Friday, allowing a potent trough to
inch closer to the CWA. Luckily, the CWA will still be locked into
southwest flow, keeping warm and dry air in place throughout the
day. According to NAEFS, 700 mb temperatures will be above the
97.5th percentile for most of the CWA, leading to well above average
temperatures with the potential for a few locations to set record
high temperatures. Chadron and Laramie have the best chance at
breaking their current records, while Alliance may come within a
degree or two of tying the record. Besides mild temperatures,
weak disturbances ahead of the trough will make their way into
the CWA. Lift from these disturbances and some increased
moisture aloft will lead to the development of scattered showers
with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. Precipitation will
become a bit more widespread west of the Laramie Range as the
night progresses, with some snow potentially mixing with rain in
parts of the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

At the start of the long term, an upper-level trough is across the
western CONUS which is being anchored by a stout upper-level low
centered over Utah. This trough will slide east across our CWA
Saturday, which will be the start of some changes for the region.
Lets first look at Saturday, a shortwave will ride up the trough
into our CWA as a cold front sweeps across the area. This will
result in a wet Saturday afternoon and evening with widespread
showers and chances of isolated thunderstorms. In addition to the
precipitation, a breezy day is in store as a tight pressure gradient
sets up over the CWA along with cooling temperatures. However, highs
for Saturday will still climb into the 60s west of I-25 and 70s to
low 80s east of the corridor ahead of the cold front. By Sunday, the
upper-level trough will eject to the northeast bringing a return of
southwest flow which wont have much of an effect on surface
temperatures as the cold will be locked in, more on that later. As
the trough moves out of the region, additional upper-level
disturbance will slide across the CWA, keeping chances of shower
activity through the day on Sunday. Surface temps, well, 700 MB
temperatures will hover around -2 degrees Celsius across our western
zones and 0 degrees over eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle.
With that being said, expect a chilly day with highs topping out in
the low 50s west of I-25 and upper 50s to lower 60s east of I-25.
What about lows over the weekend, well, lows will dip down into the
lower to mid 30s across western portions of the CWA and low to mid
40s for eastern portions, slightly cooler for Sunday night. If you
are wondering, there will be snow chances primarily above 9K feet
across the Snowy Range and Sierra Madres with accumulations of up to
an inch. Heading into the work week, there are some model
differences, but consensus has a weak ridge building back into our
CWA through Tuesday with another trough rolling through Wednesday
and Thursday. Precipitation chances, at this time, appear to be
minimal while we will see gradual warming trend. Temperatures early
next week will remain cool with highs struggling to reach the mid
50s to mid 60s, but by the end of the long term we expect highs to
climb back into the low 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. A nocturnal
low-level jet is expected tonight over the Nebraska panhandle,
leading to periods of gusty southerlies at KCDR. These may
intermittently spread to the other Nebraska terminals, but
confidence is low. When the winds are not gusting at the
surface, be prepared to find strong LLWS with SSW winds at
around 40 knots 1-2 kft AGL. This feature will weaken Friday
morning.

Gusty southwest winds will increase at KRWL and KLAR Friday late
morning, with gusts of 25 to 35 knots expected.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...MN