Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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462 FXUS65 KCYS 212342 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 442 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild weather will continue each day through Saturday as high pressure remains in control over southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. - Near to below normal temperatures will prevail for Sunday through Thanksgiving. Chances for snow will be greatest on Sunday and Wednesday, with drier conditions for Monday, Tuesday and Thanksgiving. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 133 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 Dry and mild weather will dominate the short term forecast across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. The synoptic pattern over the region features broad ridging that will last all the way through the day on Saturday. Mid-level temperatures will steadily rise on Friday and on Saturday, resulting in above-normal afternoon highs about 10 degrees or more above climatology for late November. Skies will generally be mostly clear through the period, with high cirrus drifting west to east and a few isolated mountain wave clouds aloft in the lee of the Laramie/Snowy ranges. Expect overnight lows near to slightly above average across most locations. By later afternoon Saturday, southwesterly flow aloft will increase ahead of a broad trough/frontal system moving through interior Wyoming. 500mb heights will drop through the afternoon and early evening with thicker clouds moving in in the mid and upper levels at this time. Surface wind flow will also increase as subsidence ramps up in the lee of the mountains. This will favor high winds, potentially up to high wind criteria in the Snowy Range foothills of I-80 as well as possibly on the Laramie Range summit. Overall forecast confidence is high through the short term with excellent agreement in HREF and larger-scale ensemble blends. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 133 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 Saturday night/Sunday...Brisk west southwest flow aloft continues Saturday night, and based on the low and mid level gradients and our local wind models, we may see winds near or exceeding high wind criteria across our Wyoming wind prone locations such as Arlington, Elk Mountain, Bordeaux and the I-80 Summit. On Sunday, a Canadian origin cold front progresses southward across our counties with moist west southwest flow aloft and decent low level upslope along the spine of the Laramie Range, thus snow looks to develop from west to east, with the greatest areal coverage over and near the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges. Based on the QPF, we may need some type of winter weather highlights for our mountains and nearby lower elevations. With 700 mb temperatures falling considerably, maximum temperatures will be significantly colder compared to Saturday. Monday...Low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft moves overhead with moist flow aloft lessening during the day, allowing the areal coverage of snow to decrease to scattered snow showers for the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges by afternoon. 700 mb temperatures near -5 Celsius will continue the cold high temperatures from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Tuesday...The moist zonal, west to east, flow aloft will continue to produce scattered to numerous orographic snow showers for our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, with cloud cover for other locations. Slightly warmer than Monday based on 700 mb temperatures. Wednesday...Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate trofiness aloft over Wyoming with enough low and mid level moisture to produce scattered to numerous snow showers and colder temperatures in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Thanksgiving...The holiday looks like a windy and cold day with brisk northwest flow aloft and decent low and mid level gradients to produce blustery conditions, 700 mb temperatures near -12 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the 30s, which will feel even colder due to the blustery conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 439 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 No aviation concerns for the TAF period. A ridge of high pressure over the Rockies will keep any weather at bay. Some high level clouds will float overhead tonight and into the day tomorrow. Winds will remain light and variable overnight at most terminals, with light winds continuing into the day tomorrow. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAC LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...SF