037
FXUS65 KCYS 052341
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
541 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms continue today
  and Friday bringing a marginal risk of severe weather
  alongside the potential for localized flooding.

- Mostly dry and mild weather will prevail for Saturday through
  Tuesday, with increasing chances for late day showers and
  thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms once again across the region
this afternoon, but with widespread cloud cover and cooler
temperatures alongside morning activity hindering the
environment, stronger weather has not bee able to develop. Not
ruling out the possibility of strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms, but the risk is looking more and more unlikely as
the better ingredients lie just to our south in Colorado. High
res guidance suggests we should continue to see activity through
the early evening hours before it should wane. However,
hazardous conditions still remain as the abundant rainfall we`ve
been seeing recently could lead to localized flooding. Any
locations that can see multiple decently potent thunderstorms
could need at least a flood advisory. Otherwise, a few
overnight showers or some storms could be possible, but should
mostly be relegated to the western portion of the CWA in the
intermountain areas. Also overnight, cloud decks should lower
once again, and areas of of low clouds to patchy fog for the
Laramie Summit and eastwards through the NE Panhandle could be
possible.

Tomorrow, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
with a marginal risk once again mostly relegated to extreme
southeastern Wyoming as widespread severe ingredients will be
too limited thanks to ongoing cloud cover and early
precipitation activity. But with a modest amount of instability
alongside some shear, a stronger storm or two can`t be ruled
out. One again though widespread precipitation activity and
storms training over each other could bring more moderate to
heavy rainfall, so look for a flood risk with this activity to
be possible. While widespread precipitation totals are expected
to average around a tenth to a half of an inch, localized
amounts exceeding 1-2 inches could be possible. Otherwise
Friday is expected to be our final cool day with highs in the
60`s under cloud cover and precipitation, giving way to warmer
temperatures over the weekend as more summer-like conditions
return.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Saturday...Northwest flow aloft prevails, and with some drying noted
at low and mid levels, no precipitation is expected. 700 mb
temperatures near 10 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures from
the lower 70s to lower 80s.

Sunday...The flow aloft turns north northwest and it looks slightly
cooler in the wake of a passing cold front. Looks like enough low
and mid level moisture for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms over and near the Snowy and southern Laramie Ranges
and the Laramie Valley.

Monday...Dry again as the low and mid levels dry out under north
northwest flow aloft.

Tuesday...As ridging aloft moves overhead, and 700 mb temperatures
rise to near 12 Celsius, maximum temperatures will rise into the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Isolated late day thunderstorms will be
possible over the Snowy and southern Laramie Ranges and the Laramie
Valley.

Wednesday-Thursday...Zonal flow aloft prevails, with weak shortwave
troughs aloft in the flow and adequate low and mid level moisture to
produce scattered late day showers and thunderstorms each day.
Temperatures will remain warm based on the projected 700 mb
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Zonal flow aloft will continue, and low level upslope will
produce low clouds and fog overnight.

Wyoming TAFS...For Rawlins and Laramie, scattered to broken
clouds from 5000 to 8000 feet will prevail, with fog at Rawlins
from 08Z to 15Z, reducing visibilities to 3 miles and ceilings
to 1500 feet. Winds will gust to 25 knots until 06Z to 08Z.

For Cheyenne, ceilings will range from 2500 to 4500 feet until
12Z, with periods of fog and showers, reducing visibilities to
4 miles, then fog will occur from 12Z to 15Z, reducing
visibilities to 2 miles and ceilings to 1000 feet, then ceilings
will improve to 5000 feet after 15Z Friday. Winds will gust to
20 knots until 06Z.

Nebraska TAFS...Ceilings will range from 3500 to 5000 feet until
06Z, with occasional ceilings from 2200 to 2500 feet until 03Z,
then fog will occur from 06Z to 15Z, reducing visibilities to
2 to 3 miles and ceilings to 800 to 2500 feet, then ceilings
will improve to 5000 feet after 15Z Friday. Winds will gust to
22 knots at Scottsbluff until 06Z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN