648
FXUS65 KCYS 021805
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1105 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High winds likely in the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming
  Saturday night into Sunday. High Wind Warnings are in effect.

- Seasonably warm and dry conditions expected during the start
  to middle of week, but mountain precipitation and high winds
  return by the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Mid level water vapor shows the ridge axis moving over the
Intermountain West region this morning. The low level jet is also
starting to kick in as the sustained winds are slowly inching above
40 MPH with wind gusts into the mid 50`s. As the pressure gradient
strengthens these wind gusts near 60 mph should start developing. In-
house guidance still shows about a 60 percent probability of
Bordeaux and Arlington reaching high wind criteria before dropping
off this evening. Also, due to the Warm air aloft caused by the
approaching ridge and the strong downsloping wind potential, todays
high temperatures will be on the warmer side for today. Area`s west
of the I-25 corridor will see high temperatures into the 60`s while
areas east of the I-25 corridor will see temperatures in the low
70`s today.

Monday, an upper level ridge will continue to reside over us and
keep us dry limiting our precipitation chances. A weak shortwave in
the form of cold front will push through the Intermountain west to
drop our temperatures back into the 50`s for our daily high.  While
no precipitation is expected, this front will keep everything east
of I-25 a little cooler and, everything west of I-25 will maintain
highs into low 60`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Long term remains active as we see some warmer than average
temperatures to start the period, but by the end we`ll see the
return of high winds and mountain snow to the CWA. Monday begins
with an upper level ridge overhead but a weak shortwave will be
riding the upper periphery of this feature, bringing a dry cold
front across the CWA. While no precipitation is expected, this
feature should at least help in cooling off the eastern portion
of the CWA to near or just below average on daytime highs, while
areas west of the Laramie Range will run a little warmer into
the 60`s. Tuesday the eastern half of the CWA catches back up,
with widespread 60`s and 70`s likely as highs run 10-15 degrees
above average. Wednesday another shortwave will pass across and
should knock the region down back into the 50`s to 60`s, but
will still mostly remain several degrees above normal. Then
Thursday into Friday we`ll see activity really pick back up as
a more potent shortwave brings a steady cooling trend alongside
winds and mountain precipitation. For the precipitation, much
like the previous discussion models have been keeping us in the
drier portion of the trough with the bulk of the energy to our
north. That being said, upslope enhancement should produce
multiple rounds of generally light precipitation for our higher
terrain, mostly in the western and northern portions of the CWA,
with snow for the mountains and rain/snow mix for the adjacent
plains and valleys. Meanwhile the 700mb winds continue to look
supportive for a multi-day high wind event with in house
guidance in agreement, so for this run have nudged the winds
closer to the NBM 90th percentile to bring our region wide winds
higher and closer to high wind criteria. We will likely be
looking at high wind warnings beginning early Thursday and
continuing into the evening Friday based on current guidance and
if models continue to remain in agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1102 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are
expected to remain breezy through this evening, then lessening
and becoming a bit variable overnight, followed by increasing
again tomorrow late morning into the afternoon with a southerly
component to winds for all sites at that time. Skies should
remain mostly clear through the day, with a bank of high clouds
moving in during the morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ106-110-
     116-117.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG