143
FXUS65 KCYS 081200
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
500 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very windy conditions across the Nebraska Panhandle Saturday
  with gusts over 50 MPH possible Saturday afternoon.

- Generally dry and quiet weather expected for much of next
  week. Locally strong winds expected for the southeast Wyoming
  wind prone areas late Monday and into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

KCYS radar loop at 230 AM shows a band of light to moderate
snow moving southeast across mainly southeast Wyoming. The
NWS office has officially received its first measurable snowfall
of the season with a quarter inch of snow accumulation (previous
snowfalls on Oct 18th and 27th were only a Trace at the
office). This activity is expected to continue over the next
hour before tapering to flurries and ending before sunrise. The
progressive upper level shortwave trough responsible for this
activity will quickly eject eastward into the central Great
Plains this morning while the surface cold front quickly digs
south into Colorado and New Mexico later this morning. Skies
will gradually clear with lows in the 20s to around 30 by
sunrise.

Although dry weather is expected for the rest of the weekend,
cooler airmass will remain in place through Sunday, with highs
struggling to reach the mid to upper 40s for most of the area.
Below average temperatures are expected with lows likely in the
teens to low 20s for the whole area by early Sunday morning.
Very windy today for the eastern plains behind the cold front.
Expect northwest winds between 25 to 40 mph with gusts over 50
mph. Can`t rule out a few locations along the Pine Ridge and
Cheyenne Ridge near Kimball and Sidney to see gusts approaching
60 MPH late this morning and early Saturday afternoon.
Contemplated issuing a last minute High Wind Warning, but the
peak 700mb wind max occurs before the best mixing and subsidence
this morning...with 700mb winds lowering after 900 am.
Therefore, will hold off for now due to limited confidence.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

Made some edits to the wind forecast Monday through early
Tuesday. In-house wind guidance continues to trend more
aggressive with another High Wind event across the wind prone
areas of southeast Wyoming...impacting portions of I-25 and
I-80. Models continue to show strong subsidence by early Tuesday
morning along with 700mb winds as high as 60 knots. At the
surface, models indicate an ample low level pressure gradient
along the mountains and are above the thresholds we normally
look for. Increased winds in these areas starting as early as
21z Monday, but the bulk of the event should start after sunset
Monday. Will continue to monitor model trends and may need a
High Wind Watch by tonight.

Otherwise, forecast remains on track past Tuesday, although
long range models are starting to hint towards a more noticeable
pattern change later next weekend.


Previous Discussion...
Issued at 101 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Monday will be the start of some pretty benign weather across
the CWA for the remainder of the long term period as ridging
dominates. Temperatures rebound nicely Monday with highs soaring
back into the mid 50s to mid 60s, warmest across eastern
Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. Under this upper level
pattern, expect similar highs for the duration of the long term
period while lows dive into the low 30s to low 40s. The only
weather of any concern for the long term period, if you call it
that, would be the possibility of another wind event Monday into
Tuesday for the typical wind prone areas, strongest across the
Laramie Range. This is something that bears watching for the
need of any wind products, stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

Surface cold front will push south of the region today. Windy
conditions are expected, especially across the eastern plains into
early this evening.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail today with any
remaining snow showers ending by sunrise. After a brief lull in the
winds this morning, northwest winds will quickly increase after 15z,
with gusts around 45 knots likely for the western Nebraska
terminals, KCYS and KLAR, until 01z this evening. A brief shower or
two and MVFR CIGS possible at KCDR after 18z, but confidence is too
low (<10%) to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RZ/TJT
AVIATION...TJT