455
FXUS65 KCYS 082124
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
324 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue through late this
  afternoon.

- Precipitation chances return for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Fairly benign conditions this afternoon aside from breezy winds
and lowered RH values primarily impacting our western zones.
These elevated fire weather concerns should be on the downturn
with winds lessening and RH values increasing this evening. This
evening and overnight, not expecting much in the way of
impactful weather aside from some low cloud cloud development or
possible fog once again in the Nebraska Panhandle based on model
soundings.

Thursday drier air shifts eastwards of the Laramie Range as
southwesterly flow starts to bring in moist monsoonal air. This
warm and moist air should start to produce some cloud cover and
a very low chance of an evening or nighttime mountain shower,
but the bulk of any precipitation activity isn`t expected until
the long term. With this comes warmer temperatures as well,
producing our expected warmest day of the seven day forecast
period including highs in the 70`s to low to mid 80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Moving into the long term we should see a more active pattern to
end the week and into the weekend as moisture continues to
overspread from southwesterly flow under the influence of a
ridge before a Pacific trough then briefly changes our flow on
Sunday. For Friday and Saturday, widespread cloud cover from the
moisture will temper our highs down into the 60`s to 70`s.
Meanwhile some showers and a few weak thunderstorms could be
possible, but the bulk of this activity should be relegated to
the high terrain as we will lack a notable forcing mechanism to
produce more widespread precipitation activity. Still, a few
showers should make their way off of the high terrain and even
as far east as the high plains. And don`t discount this
moisture out fully - with PWAT values 200-250% of normal, if we
can get any forcing assistance, heavy downpours will be
possible. On Sunday a brief lapse in moisture as the trough
moves across is expected, but the jet overhead will cause near
high wind criteria for the day. At 700 mb, the jet should max at
around 50-60 knots for our usual wind prone regions, but most
guidance is expecting we`ll stay just outside of high wind
criteria (gusts 58+ mph). In house guidance has also declined
as of this update, leading to higher confidence that we`ll be
close to reaching our first high wind warnings of the season,
but not quite yet. But this trough brings colder air, with highs
much lower into the 50`s to widespread 60`s and a few low 70`s
in the Panhandle possible. Monday and Tuesday we go back under a
transient ridge which should return southwesterly flow with
areas of showers returning as well under moist flow once again.
Temperatures should remain cool and fall-like during this time,
once again in the 50`s to 60`s and low 70`s, with significant
weather concerns limited. Just beyond the long term, our next
deep trough is expected which may bring concerns from Wednesday
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Some lingering clouds brining MVFR conditions to KSNY late this
morning, but otherwise expecting VFR conditions and SKC to
prevail this afternoon and evening. Overnight we`re likely to
see some low clouds and possible fog develop in the Nebraska
Panhandle, and most likely sites to see this impact will be KBFF
and KAIA. Winds breezy today with gusts 20-30 knots, strongest
WY terminals.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG