795
FXUS65 KCYS 050522
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1122 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gorgeous weekend is in store as temperatures rebound into
  the 50s and 60s with clearing skies and minimal precipitation
  chances.

- Warmer, drier weather returns for the week ahead, with fire
  concerns increasing after Monday.

- More unsettled weather pattern may return as early as
  Wednesday and continue into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A pleasant weekend is in store as temperatures return to above
average by Sunday. Some scattered clouds and gusty winds will be
around this afternoon as the system that brought yesterday`s
precipitation moves further eastward. 700 mb temperatures are still
below zero, but are average for this time of year. Seasonal high
temperatures in the 50s can be expected for most cities this
afternoon. Heading into the overnight hours, low temperatures
will also be seasonable. However, cannot rule out the potential
for fog developing tonight. Clear skies and calm winds, as well
as residual moisture could lead to fog formation in the Nebraska
panhandle and the high valleys out west.

Sunday will see a return to above average temperatures as upper-
level ridging takes a hold of western CONUS. 700 mb
temperatures above 0C will begin to creep back into the CWA,
raising high temperatures above what they were Saturday.
Subsidence under the ridge will keep skies mostly sunny with no
precipitation chances. Sun and high temperatures in the 50s and
60s will lead to a pleasant Easter for those doing egg hunts
outside! Even the wind will behave on Sunday with light winds
expected throughout the duration of the day.

Temperatures on Monday will be similar to Sunday, however, a weak
upper-level disturbance passing through the area will increase
clouds throughout the afternoon hours. As a result, highs could be a
few degrees cooler compared to Sunday, depending when clouds start
to filter in. Winds will also increase during the afternoon hours as
a low-level jet builds over the eastern plains of the CWA.
Precipitation is unlikely during this time, but a stray high terrain
shower cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The storm track will remain active over the western United States
for much of next week. Beginning on Tuesday, our area will begin to
feel some influence from a potent upper level low expected to pass
well to our north. As usual, this will increase westerly flow aloft
while also supporting a surface through that should drive westerly
flow eastward across the High Plains. Warm, but not record breaking,
temperatures are anticipated with 700-mb temperatures around +3 to
+5C. Dewpoints will also be low, leading to near critical RH and at
least elevated fire weather conditions. The wind component is more
uncertain, at least along and east of the Laramie range where fuels
are in critical status. Wind speeds will peak sometime between
Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Current probabilities for
high wind are around 60% in the Arlington/Elk Mountain area, 20-30%
in the I-80 summit and Bordeaux areas, and 10% in southeast Wyoming
adjacent to the wind prone areas (Rawlins, Laramie, Cheyenne,
Douglas, Wheatland). A cold front will sweep through behind the
upper level low to our north, but most guidance currently has this
moving through the area in the late afternoon hours, allowing for
another mild day on Wednesday. If this front accelerates a little
bit, forecast highs could bust on Wednesday. High-based shower
activity will be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday. While the
probability for measurable precipitation is quite low, there will be
a chance for dry microburst activity both days.

Behind Wednesday`s system, a different synoptic weather pattern is
expected to set up across the region. Ensembles are in fairly good
agreement showing moisture increasing by Thursday, both in the lower
levels and aloft. Temperatures look to remain fairly close to
average Thursday onward as well, with lighter winds favored. At the
surface, most LREF ensemble members have south to southeast winds
east of the Laramie Range, and south to southwest winds to the west.
This will set up a pattern of diurnal convection each day from
Thursday onward. The details remain highly uncertain considering
this is 5-7 days out right now, but expect to see daily chances for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday through at
least Sunday. The daily details will depend on the timing and
strength of a series of disorganized upper level lows moving across
the western CONUS during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of
this TAF period. Winds will remain generally less than 10 knots
throughout this forecast. KRWL and KCDR are two exceptions, as they
may see winds gust to near 20 knots Sunday, between 18Z to 23Z.
Under clear skies and calm winds tonight, FG chances remain minimal,
around 10%, for portions of the Nebraska Panhandle and the high
valleys to the west.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RZ