119
FXUS65 KCYS 071134
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
434 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Prolonged high winds will be possible today and Saturday. High
  Wind Warnings are in effect for the wind prone areas of
  Southeast Wyoming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

The winds have stayed elevated in the wind prone areas to include
the Summit with wind gusts between 45 to 55 mph. Another high wind
warning was issued for our wind prone areas and the Summit and
Foothills in between Laramie and Cheyenne. During the day today the
700mb jet will continue its strength producing winds between 50 to
60 knots. Starting at 12z strong subsident flow begins taking effect
over Arlington allowing for those winds to start mixing down to the
surface. By 15z the GFS omega fields show strong subsidence
developing over the Bordeaux area and the Summit. Following the GFS
omega field guidance the start times for the High wind warning
corresponded to the timing of the strong subsident flow. By 06z the
700mb jet decreases below 50 kts over our area, however by 03z the
omega field shows strong rising motion over the wind prones
effectively shutting of the jet from those stronger surface winds.
The rising motion does occur quicker over the Bordeaux and Summit
areas a little quicker so the high wind warning ends at 00z while
Arlington ends at 03z. By this evening a quick moving shortwave is
expected to drop down from Canada and briefly move through the
Intermountain West before entering the Northern Plains.  WHile the
stronger showers are expected to be in Northern Wyoming and in South
Dakota where the strongest area of divergence lies. Some light
showers are expected to move through our area in the overnight
hours. For the Sierra Madre and Snowy mountains a few inches of snow
looks to accumulate in the overnight hours. However, for the lower
elevations especially in the northern counties the showers will
likely start off as rain and quickly transition to snow. For areas
like Goshen county and the Nebraska Panhandle the showers may stay
as rain due to the warmer temperatures from the gusty westerly winds
during the day. By Saturday morning the showers look to dissipate as
the short wave pushes further southeast. Saturday continues to be
breezy as the 700mb jet pushes east and the Intermountain west
transitions to Northwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM MST Thu Nov 6 2025

At the start of the long term period, strong winds continue into
Saturday as temperatures take a nose dive, Sunday will see a
reprieve from the winds. So, expect some chilly temps this weekend
as highs only top out in the 40s across the CWA. The 500mb pattern
becomes northwesterly as a shortwave dives south with slim chances
of precipitation as lower levels remain dry based on modeled
soundings. As this shortwave and associated upper level low pushes
off to the east late Saturday into Sunday, upper level winds will
shift slightly and become northerly. This will help maintain the
cooler temperatures this weekend compared to what we`ve been seeing
as cool Canadian air filters in. The other condition that may be of
some concern, will be the continuation of stronger winds Saturday. A
pinch in the gradient will elicit strong winds at the surface, with
the Nebraska Panhandle seeing the strongest as northerly winds gust
to near 45 mph especially for Alliance, Chadron, and Sydney. If
model trends continue, this may make the need for wind products this
weekend, stay tuned. As mentioned earlier, temperatures tank this
weekend with lows by Sunday morning in the teens and low 20s across
the CWA. What about next week, well, we will see some changes as
weak ridging noses in, resulting in a pretty benign weather pattern
for most of the work week. Precipitation chances will remain nil as
temperatures rebound, with highs soaring back into the upper 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 433 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Another gusty day with VFR conditions expected through TAF
period. A mid level shortwave will create some overnight showers
however its uncertain if any of the TAF sites will receive any
precipitation due to the layer of dry air near the surface. A
700mb jet will create a low level windshear threat at 2,000ft at
around 40knots. For our Wyoming terminals wind gusts look to
reach between 35 to 40 knots by the afternoon and into the
overnight period. The Nebraska Terminals will have gusts between
25 to 30 knots that will increase to 30 to 40 knots by Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for WYZ106-116-117.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...MM