616
FXUS61 KCTP 271835
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
235 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Level 2/5 severe t-storm risk shifted to the west out of Warren
County

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and heavy
rainfall remain possible through Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Unfortunately, the pattern into midweek does not lend itself to
a high confidence forecast given the growing uncertainty
details surrounding the evolution upstream convective activity.

KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and heavy rainfall are possible this afternoon through Tuesday

Convection has been percolating across CPA from late morning
through early afternoon. While much of this activity has been
fairly shallow and transient so far, a few stronger cores have
briefly pulsed to near severe limits before decaying. Weak deep-
layer wind shear will continue to modulate the overall storm
intensity and longevity; however, steady diurnal heating
through broken cloud cover (with smoke aloft) has allowed
temperatures to warm into the mid 70s-80s within a relatively
moist air mass. This heating/mixing has allowed low-level lapse
rates to increase to around 8 to 8.5 C/km, which is favorable
for isolated downbursts capable of producing strong to damaging
wind gusts (most likely 40-60 mph). GOES imagery shows several
deepening towers and cumulus clusters, hinting that thunderstorm
coverage will continue to increase - especially along a subtle
surface trough/weak front draped across the region. The
potential for damaging gusts should increase on the margin in
tandem with thunderstorm coverage, but the overall threat should
remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude watch
issuance per SWOMCD #1765 (5% probability). Storm motions have
also been fairly progressive so far from NNW to SSE which
should limit any localized flooding concerns within brief heavy
downpours.

Timing and placement uncertainty grows heading into tonight
with continued CAM variability concerning downstream
development/propagation of Great Lakes/Ohio Valley MCS activity.
The main shortwave does appear to reach CPA by Tuesday morning.
The decaying? MCS or related feature and associated cloud cover
could dampen severe risk into the afternoon. Hires guidance
seems to suggest an eastward shift in the greatest svr/FF risk
as the trough deepens over the northern Mid Atlantic. Some heavy
rain potential will linger into Wednesday as the slow moving
upper low pivots from northeast PA toward southern New England.
Storm totals could exceed 2-3 over some parts of the northeast
CWA by Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Radar trends suggest increasing t-storm coverage through the
afternoon and will continue to utilize PROB30s for brief
localized terminal restrictions. Low confidence in timing of
showers and storms (lowering of flight cats) later tonight into
Tuesday given high uncertainty with upstream tstm evolution.
There is a fairly good signal for at least MVFR early Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Restrictions likely SHRA & TSRA.

Thu-Sat...Improving conditions into late week. Patchy AM fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl