943
FXUS61 KCTP 110550
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
150 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* A bit more cloud cover for Saturday. Looking wetter for
late Saturday and early Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and perhaps a brief thunderstorm tapering off from
northwest to southeast early today.

2) A nice afternoon today, but increasing chance for widespread
moderate to perhaps heavy rain late Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and perhaps a brief thunderstorm tapering
off from northwest to southeast early today.

A cold front nearly bisecting PA from NE to SW will push slowly
south through the rest of the state this afternoon and evening
before stalling out just south of the Mason/Dixon line today.
Main factor favoring showers early on is the dewpoints across
the far southeast are still quite high.

Much of the rain so far is not reaching the ground. Widespread
mid level cloud deck over the area. There is a heavier shower
(small thing) over Somerset Co.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A nice afternoon today, but increasing chance
for widespread moderate to perhaps heavy rain late Saturday into
early Sunday.

Still a bit early to tell how much the models may suffer a
bit of convective feedback, but the current pattern supports
what we have been having for much of the summer.

More information below.

As SFC high pressure moves well off the Mid Atlantic and
Southern New England Coast, low level moisture lurking just
south of the Mason/Dixon line Fri night will push steadily NE
across the state on Saturday within broad llvl flow from the
south to southwest. A notable axis of streamline convergence
shifting gradually east across Central PA late Sat afternoon/Sat
night will provide increasing llvl theta-E advection and
numerous showers with a few to several tenths of an inch of
rainfall likely across at least the SE half to two thirds of
the CWA by early Sunday. A few PM TSRA possible Saturday and/or
Sunday afternoons, especially over the western mtns. A more-
active (wetter) pattern is in store for Mon-Tues. But, the flat
upper ridge over the southern half of the CONUS will make it
difficult for deep moisture to make it into PA ahead of any
shots of atmos forcing. The week could end dry as the upper
ridge pumps up over the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak cold front dropping southward across the Commonwealth
overnight separates drier air to the north (Td around 10C) from
more humid air to the south (Td around 20C). Slower southward
progression of this front and its associated mid/high clouds
has pushed back the timing & extent of overnight fog/low
stratus. Visibility restrictions are more likely (60-70% chance)
at KBFD/KJST, driven by clearing skies (mainly KBFD) and
upslope flow + recent rainfall (KJST), with lowering confidence
in restrictions for points southward/eastward across our area.
Intermittent light showers remain possible across the southern
airfields (KJST/KAOO/KMDT/KLNS) heading into daybreak, with
shower activity waning through the overnight hours as the front
continues south and drier air filters in from the north.

As per the previous discussion, VFR conditions will return
area-wide once any fog burns off after sunrise. Expect partly to
mostly sunny skies with light, generally northerly winds,
tending variable at times as high pressure slides across the
Northeastern US.

Friday evening looks to begin mainly clear, with cloud cover
overspreading the area from SW to NE overnight heading into
Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the Tennessee Valley.
Friday night looks to be mainly dry outside of upslope drizzle
along the Allegheny ridgeline, with shower chances favored to
hold off until Saturday.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, with some potential for
afternoon SHRA/TSRA on at least a hit and miss basis.

Tue...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible over NW PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Martin
AVIATION...Teare/Bauco