616
FXUS61 KCTP 111459
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1059 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Gusty winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon will
  contribute to an elevated risk of wildfire spread.
* After a brief cool down on Wednesday, warmer temperatures will
  return late in the week and remain with us into the weekend.
* A strong low pressure system will bring gusty winds this
  weekend and a threat for severe weather on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quite a bit of variability in temperatures this morning as is
typical under a ridge of high pressure this time of year.
Many valley locations dropped below freezing this morning while
ridge locations stayed in the middle to upper 30s. As surface
heating commences, deep mixing up to 3-4kft will allow
temperatures to soar through the 60s and crest the 70F mark for
locations east of I-99 and south of I-80. 12-hr temperature
changes should approach 40F for many locations, which is about
as drastic as we see around here - tis the season. Highs will
end up 20 to 25 degrees above the historical average for mid
March.

As a moisture-starved cold front approaches from the northwest
this afternoon, gusty west-southwest winds will pick up across
the area. Gusts of 15 to 30 mph are expected, with the higher
end gusts expected in western and northern Pennsylvania. The
combination of gusty winds and dry air/fuels will lead to an
elevated risk of wildfire spread this afternoon. Based on
collaboration with Bureau of Forestry partners, fuels are not
quite dry enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning, but a long-
fused Special Weather Statement remains in effect until 8PM for
a majority of Pennsylvania (excluding a few counties in
northwest PA). 99% of wildfires in PA are started by humans, so
please hold on to your cigarette butts today and avoid starting
any fires.

The cold front will push south of the Mason-Dixon line tonight
with continued dry conditions expected. Winds could stay breezy
in northeast PA tonight, but lighter winds will build in
elsewhere as high pressure retakes control of the Commonwealth.
Lows by daybreak Wednesday will range from the middle 20s north
of US-6 to the low 40s south of the PA Turnpike.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After Tuesday`s warmth, slight midweek cooling is seen with
light easterly flow on Wednesday as a front stalls south of the
Mason-Dixon line. Highs Wednesday are progged in the low 40s in
the northeast to near 60 degrees across the southern tier.
Lighter winds should limit the risk of wildfire spread somewhat,
but low relative humidity is expected once again Wednesday
afternoon. There is higher-than-normal uncertainty for a day 2
high temperature on Wednesday, which is fairly typical for cool-
air damming situations like this.

There is still some uncertainty around slight precip chances
Wednesday aftn/eve, with some light rain possible in the
northern tier along a wavy frontal zone. A few wet snowflakes
could mix in as well, but accumulation should be limited.

Temperatures begin to rebound on Thursday and Friday as a
closed upper low passes south of the region. Upper ridging will
keep it dry and mild over Pennsylvania, but clouds will be more
common. Highs each afternoon will generally be in the mid 50s
to the mid 60s with light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mild temperatures will continue Saturday. However, a pattern
change is expected this weekend, as low pressure tracks across
the Great Lakes. Rain showers are expected to develop Saturday,
with ensemble guidance progging the highest PoPs Sunday morning
as a cold front crosses the region. A few thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out.

A tightening pressure gradient around this system will bring
the potential for strong winds throughout the weekend. This
risk of high winds has also been outlined via CPC`s D8-14
Hazards Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not much change to the 12Z TAF package.

LLWS will still be possible at BFD up to mid morning. For
all areas, expect winds to pick up after mid morning.

Looking at mainly clear skies today, with some clouds late.
A cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into
this evening. Most locations will remain dry into late
Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wed...VFR/no sig wx.

Thu...Isold SHRA possible mainly wrn PA.

Fri...VFR/no sig wx.

Sat...SHRA enters W PA during PM, restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Banghoff
LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB
AVIATION...Martin