956
FXUS61 KCTP 021059
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
659 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure will bring abundant sunshine, lower humidity,
  and seasonable temperatures through Tuesday.
* Temperatures gradually increase into next week with a small
  uptick in humidity.
* Isolated to scattered showers/storms return to central PA by
  midweek, but dry conditions persist for many.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pre-dawn nighttime microphysics imagery depicts thick fog in the
deepest valleys across north central PA this morning thanks to
relatively warm rivers/creeks underneath an anomalously cool
airmass for this time of year. Farther southwest, a deck of mid
clouds blankets locations south of US-22 from I-99 over to the
PA border. Temperatures at daybreak range from the low 40s in
the coldest parts of the northwest mountains to the upper 50s in
the Lower Susquehanna valley - a preview of fall and the coldest
morning since June 4th.

High pressure will continue to move into the region today and
the latest surface analysis paints the center of that surface
high over Michigan. With low pressure well to the south of PA,
winds should be weaker today than they were yesterday. A
shortwave in the upper level pattern will bring some cirrus
clouds across the region today, with perhaps some filtered
sunshine at times. Still, abundant sunshine and noticeably lower
dewpoints set the stage for an incredible Saturday (and entire
weekend).

Afternoon highs will end up in the 70s for most with a few
locations cresting the 80F mark. Overnight, temperatures will
drop back into the 50s with the coldest valleys dropping into
the 40s (similar to this morning) and patchy valley fog will
develop again. With a pattern like this, persistence is
generally a good forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure moves overhead on Sunday, ensuring virtually
cloud-free skies and slightly warmer temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees warmer compared to Saturday, likely in the mid
70s to mid 80s. High pressure remains in control through
midweek, ensuring no rainfall and more sun than clouds through
Tuesday. Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s will correspond with
dewpoints in the same range. The gradual uptick in temperatures
over the next few days will be accompanied by a southeasterly
return flow as high pressure moves off to the east.

The latest HRRR Smoke model indicates that Pennsylvania will be
pinched between two fairly robust plumes of wildfire smoke
aloft, which means we`ll have bluer skies than our friends in
New York and Maryland/Virginia the next couple of days- we`ll
take it. It doesn`t get much better than this for this time of
year. No matter if you`re headed out to garage sales, camping,
cooking out, laying stripes as you mow your lawn, or going on a
hike/bike, it will be a spectacular few days for outdoor
activities. Enjoy!

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Tuesday, GEFS and ECENS runs depict the Ohio Valley being
sandwiched between two big domes of upper level ridging. That
bit of weakness in the ridging should facilitate the northward
surge of a bit more moisture later Tuesday with an associated
uptick in cloud cover, especially in southern PA. Still fairly
high confidence in Tuesday being dry, but the chance for rain
returns on Wednesday. The best forcing for showers/storms will
remain well south of Pennsylvania, so the probability of
precipitation Wednesday - Friday next week remains only in the
15-30% range most of the time. Surface high pressure to the
north should keep the best chances of rain across
southern/southwest PA all the way into the weekend.

Humidity and temperature levels will stay at reasonable levels
through the week with no significant heat in sight. Dry and
seasonable seems to be the trend for August so far in
Pennsylvania. This stretch of dry weather should be helpful for
water-logged portions of southeast PA that could not catch a
break in July. Any bit of drying we can get will be helpful
ahead of tropical season, when we`ve seen plenty of significant
floods over the years following a wet spring/summer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patches of early morning valley fog should quickly dissipate by
mid morning given low dewpoints. Any areas of MVFR should
quickly improve with mainly clear skies and relatively light
winds anticipated through today. VFR conditions are expected
throughout the rest of the today with very high (~100%)
confidence based on model consensus. Conditions tonight will be
very similar to last night, and patchy valley fog will again
become the concern during the early morning hours on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...Dry with VFR conditions.

Wed-Thu...SHRA and TSRA chances return.

&&

.CLIMATE...
* Top 10 warmest June+July
* Top 10 warmest July

For June + July 2025:

Harrisburg:     76.8F average temperature ranks 7th warmest
Williamsport:   74.0F average temperature ranks tied 7th warmest
Altoona:        73.1F average temperature ranks tied 3rd warmest
Bradford:       67.7F average temperature ranks 2nd warmest
State College:  73.3F average temperature ranks tied 3rd warmest

For July 2025:

Harrisburg:     79.8F average temperature ranks 8th warmest
Williamsport:   76.8F average temperature ranks tied 9th warmest
Altoona:        74.7F average temperature ranks 8th warmest
Bradford:       69.5F average temperature ranks tied 4th warmest
State College:  76.0F average temperature ranks 4th warmest

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guseman/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Guseman/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Guseman/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Guseman/Banghoff/Bauco
AVIATION...NPB/Bowen
CLIMATE...Banghoff