057
FXUS61 KCTP 151921
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
221 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor adjustments to forecast snow accumulation for tonight

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain and wet snow later today into tonight with limited
minor accumulation most likely (C-1") over east-central PA

2) Mid-February thaw continues for most of this week with
temperatures remaining above the historical average

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain and wet snow later today into tonight with
limited minor accumulation most likely (C-1") over east-central
PA

Latest guidance as well as trends in radar imagery and temp obs
continue to point to mostly light rain as precip begins across
south central PA this afternoon, with snow at higher elevations.
As temps cool tonight, precip will likely become mostly snow
where precip is still falling (Susq Valley and east) with a
wet/slushy (low SLR) accumulation of between a coating and 1
inch in that area area. Highest chance (25 pct) for more than 1
inch of snow in central PA would be eastern Schuylkill Co.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mid-February thaw continues for most of this
week with temperatures remaining above the historical average

Stretch of above average warmth for mid February continues
through most of this week with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. A
seasonable cool down is likely by next weekend.

After mainly dry start to the week, rounds of precip are likely
Wednesday and again Friday into the weekend. Rain is the
dominant ptype with some mixed precip potential primarily over
the northern tier.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain will overspread the southern half of the Commonwealth this
afternoon, bringing reduced visibility and, eventually, reduced
ceilings. High confidence IFR visibility and/or ceilings for all
airfields except IPT tonight, and even there a several-hour
period of IFR ceilings is possible as rain changes to snow.

As temperatures cool off tonight, rain will mix with or
changeover to snow, with potential impacts to MDT and LNS. The
main impact would be slightly lower visibilities in snow
compared to if it stays plain rain.

Any snow and rain will be out of the area by early Monday
morning, but lower ceilings and visibilities will linger into
Monday morning. In fact, IFR ceilings could linger at BFD/JST
into Monday afternoon. Brightening skies will build in on
Monday, with dry conditions prevailing.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...Persistent low clouds/vis overnight, slow improvement
each afternoon

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

Thu-Fri...Sct -RA, restrictions possible

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for PAZ057-059-
063-065-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Banghoff/Martin