290
FXUS61 KCTP 021804
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
204 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories issued for all of central
  PA from 11pm tonight through 9am Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight.

2) Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of next week
ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight.

Clearing skies and decreasing winds will allow for temperatures
to fall into the 20s and 30s tonight, leading to widespread
frost and freeze concerns. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings
have been issued for all of central Pennsylvania and are in
effect from 11 pm tonight through 9 am Sunday. There was some
question about whether or not winds would stay elevated enough
over parts of southeast PA to preclude frost development, but it
appears there will be enough potential for frost to include
them in the advisory as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of
next week ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers
and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

A warming trend begins tomorrow that continues through the
middle of the week. Expect to see high temperatures in the 60s
and 70s on Monday and Tuesday as southwesterly flow develops out
ahead of the next frontal system that will move through the
region. A few locations across south-central PA may even
approach 80 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers will
be possible on Tuesday,especially across northwest PA, but the
better chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be on
Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front.
Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front, with
potential frost/freeze concerns developing once again to end the
week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conds will persist across the region through the TAF
period. There are some borderline MVFR cigs across the western
highlands this afternoon, but these cigs are generally at or
above 5kft east of the Allegheny Front. A W/NW breeze of 5-10
kts, and perhaps a gust to 15kts, will continue today as well.

Skies will clear this evening into the overnight period. Winds
will generally go light and variable, although we may hold onto
a 5-10 kt W/NW breeze across the Lower Susq Valley (MDT/LNS).

Sunday will feature continued VFR conds beneath partly sunny
skies. The W/NW breeze will become a bit gustier, and could
gust to around 20 kts by Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...

Sun night-Mon...Scattered -SHRA develop across wrn PA, and some
thunder is possible by Monday PM.

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE;
restrictions possible.

Wed...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046.
Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
PAZ035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Bauco
AVIATION...Evanego