485
FXUS61 KCTP 160900
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Marginal Risk for SVR TSRA across the southern few layers of
  PA counties this afternoon/early evening.
* SPC Day 3 Slight Risk covers the Bulk of PA Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wildfire smoke from Ontario and northern Minnesota will
trigger code red and orange air quality alerts today and Friday

2) Thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy rainfall for
Saturday/Saturday evening followed by cooling trend and much
more comfortable humidity Sunday into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1:  Wildfire smoke from Ontario and northern Minnesota
will trigger code red and orange air quality alerts today and
Friday

The smoke will continue to overspread the Commonwealth today,
into Friday leading to reduced visibility at times.

The poorest air quality index (AQI) in PA early today extended
from the NW and North-Central Mountains through the Mid
Susquehanna Valley and into SERN PA.

The bulk of the thicker smoke resided on the north side of a
cold front that extended from Northern Ohio and Northern PA to
SE NY. We`re seeing just one lone, brief heavy shower near the
NE Ohio/NW PA border and drifting SE along this frontal
boundary.

The thickest smoke will arrive in northwestern around sunrise
today and push southeastward across the rest of central PA
during the day today.

The PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has issued
statewide Code Red Air Quality Alert for today (Thursday) and
Code Orange Air Quality Alert for Friday. These alerts are based
on predicted 24 hour averages. Individual hours may see worse
air quality.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy
rainfall for Saturday/Saturday evening followed by cooling
trend and much more comfortable humidity Sunday into next week.

A potent cold front and rather sharp upper level trough will be
dropping from the Upper Glakes Region.  Thunderstorms are
expected to fire-up Saturday and could produce locally heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding.

Strong Mid/Upper level height falls and favorable, initial
weak, mid-level capping just ahead of the approach of the right
entrance region of an 80 kt upper level jet will combine with
high moisture content of the atmos to bring the threat for SE
moving, discrete Supercells which could produce strong to
damaging isolated downburst wind gusts and perhaps a few
instances of large 1 inch + diameter hail.

SPC`s Day 3 risk now covers the majority of Pennsylvania. PW
values are forecast to reach the 1.5-2.0" range which suggests
intense rain rates will be possible.

A drying trend is expected Sunday. Additional bouts of
rain/t-storms are possible into the workweek. Temperatures will
trend near to below historical averages through late week with
some noticeable cooler nights possible.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Smoke from fires up in Canada and northern Minnesota will be
across the area through today and likely into Friday.

For Central and Northern airfields (BFD/JST/AOO), smoke will
transition from mostly elevated at 08z Friday to more sfc level
through the day on today as smoke advects SE across the region.

For eastern airfields (IPT/UNV/MDT/LNS), sfc level smoke
already moved into IPT behind a cold front that pushed through
earlier Wed evening. This smoke is expected to move south into
at least LNS by 4z. MDT and UNV will be on the western periphery
of this batch of smoke, but likely will also see vsby drop
later tonight. The eastern airfields will see a reinforcing shot
of sfc level smoke come in from the west in the late afternoon
or early evening on Thursday. Aside from smoke, there may also
be some valley fog late tonight into Thursday morning mainly in
the north.

With a cold front across the southern tier of PA by 18z today,
can`t rule out a few pop-up showers or thundershowers (10 pct
chc at JST, MDT, LNS) otherwise dry through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Fri AM...Mainly VFR, with areas of late night/AM fog. Some
reduced visibility possible from smoke, with an isolated late-
day SHRA/TSRA possible.

Fri PM-Sun...Chance of showers and t-storms, mainly during
the afternoon hours on Saturday into early Sunday aft.

Mon...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No daily records were tied or broken Wednesday (Jul 15).

Daily record high max temperatures for July 15th. Middletown
came very close to tying ro breaking the recond with an
observed high temp of 98.

SITE    | RECORD/YEAR |
-----------------------
MDT     |   99/2024   |
-----------------------
IPT     |  103/1995   |
-----------------------
AOO     |   98/1995   |
-----------------------
BFD     |   88/2013   |
-----------------------
STCP1   |   97/1887   |
-----------------------

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert
AVIATION...Lambert
CLIMATE...Steinbugl