366
FXUS61 KCTP 051956
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
356 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are
  expected late this afternoon through Friday and again later
  this first full weekend of June
* Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
  additional rounds of showers and temperatures trending near
  to slightly below the seasonal average

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
We`re experiencing a mainly dry and quite warm early June
afternoon with temps in the U70s to L80s acrs the high terrain
and mid to upper 80s in the Central and Southern Valleys with
generally light wind and moderate Tds in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
These max temps are +10-15 degrees above the historical average
in most places.

SFC cold front and Lake Erie breeze have melded over the past
few hours just to the west of a KOLE to KBFD and KFKL line with
a BKN line of SHRA and a few strong to severe TSRA developing
over NW PA and SW NY.

The LLVL focus along the aforementioned cold front combined
with an area of enhanced deep layer UVVEL beneath the right/
entrance region of a 45 to 55 kt jetlet will focus the best
threat for deep convection across the NW third to half of our
CWA through 01Z before the intensity of the SHRA/TSRA slowly
wanes.

SPC upgraded the previous MRGL risk for SVR TSRA to a SLGT for
approximately the NW half of the CWA into this evening, likely
based on the factors noted above.

Although a few isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible between 22Z Thu
and 02Z Fri across the SE half of the CWA, current thinking is
that the fairly extensive mid cloud layer, broad llvl
divergence, slightly warmer mid level temps and lack of deeper
layer ascent/shear will limit POPS to 15 percent of less in that
area.

Corridor of notably higher PWs 1.2-1.5" (or +1-2 sigma anomaly-
wise) will accompany the weak cold front across the NW part of
the CWA late this afternoon/evening.

Tonight will be on the muggy/humid side with areas of fog/low
stratus and min temps 60-65F or +10-15 degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front will be slow-moving and continue
to trigger another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon/evening and lingering over southern PA into
Saturday.

Short term model data shows the focus for storms will shift
gradually to the southeast Fri-Sat with max POPs on Friday from
the Allegheny Plateau/Laurel Highlands into the central ridge
and valley region, before becoming focused over Southern Tier
and Lower Susq Valley on Saturday. A marginal/low risk for
isolated strong/severe wind gusts and heavy downpours will exist
primarily on Friday/D2.

An emerging model trend with the 05/00Z cycle is for a quicker
exit to the rain which affords most of CPA (particularly the NW
half or so of the CWA) a dry start to the first full weekend of
June. This appears to come at a cost with another wave of rain
now projected to expand ENE across the area Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Daytime max temps cool off to near/below
normal on the north side of the Cfrontal Boundary Friday-Sunday
while nighttime readings remain above early June climo due to
lingering BKN-OVC cloud cover and moderately high SFC Tds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
rounds of showers likely as an amplified upper trough across the
Central US and Ohio Valley shears NE across the Glakes Region by
the middle of the week.

SFC and Upper level ridging over head and to our west will bring
drier conditions for much of the period Wednesday through early
Friday of next week.

Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly below the
seasonal average in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered-BKN mid and high clouds will continue to stream ENE
across the Central Mtns and Susq Valley through the rest of
this afternoon/early evening hours.

Increasing coverage and intensity of showers/TSRA will occur
along and just to the SE of a slow-moving cold front currently
(1930Z) located near a KOLE to KBFD and KFKL line.

Brief restrictions (mainly from VSBY dipping into the MVFR
range) will be embedded in this area. The showers and storms
will be moving generally to the east-northeast at around 15-20
kts.

Otherwise and elsewhere across Central and SE PA, clouds will
continue to build during the late afternoon/early evening
hours ahead of the approaching cold front. VFR conditions
should be prevailing across much of Central PA and the Susq
Valley at least until 00Z Friday.

Prob30 groups for TSRA will be maintained at all airfields
except for KMDT and KLNS. Once the front passes there could be
visibility reductions late tonight and Friday morning from fog
due to surface moisture and light to calm wind (north of the
cold frontal boundary) at any sites that experienced
precipitation.


Outlook...

Fri...Numerous SHRA/TSRA, esp Central and NW in the afternoon
and evening. Brief reductions to MVFR and IFR in the TSRA.

Sat...Showers/PM TSRA continue, mainly confined to the southern
third of PA. Precip chances gradually tapering off across the NW
half to 2/3rds of PA late morning into the afternoon.

Sun...VFR/no sig wx expected.

Mon...Showers and storms, especially late across the north and
west.

Tue...Showers/PM TSRA

&&

.CLIMATE...
The high temperature at Altoona reached 89 degrees at 2:22pm on
June 4th. This broke the record of 86 degrees set back in 1971
and 2024.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Gartner
AVIATION...Lambert/Bowen
CLIMATE...Martin