722
FXUS61 KCTP 120946
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
446 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Gusty winds in the Laurels and lake effect rain/snow showers
  across the northern tier will continue today and Thursday
* Temperatures moderate to slightly above average this weekend
* Rain and perhaps a few storms on Saturday will be followed by
  a cold front Saturday night and Sunday, with cooler and windy
  conditions early next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today looks quite similar to yesterday, though just a bit
warmer, and less in the way of coverage of snow showers. A tight
pressure gradient will allow for widespread winds gusts in the
25 to 35 mph range Wednesday, with some guidance suggesting the
potential for gusts over the Laurel Highlands to approach 40 to
45 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued until 4PM for Somerset,
Bedford, Blair, and Cambria counties.

Winds aloft are more zonal this morning, helping steer lake
effect showers (rain/snow mix) mainly north of I-80. Those winds
will veer to a more northwesterly fetch this afternoon and
evening bringing lake effect showers into northern PA. Thermal
profiles support a rain/snow mix thanks to surface temperatures
in the mid 30s. Warm advection will keep temperatures trending
up compared to yesterday, with highs ranging from the middle
30s in the northern tier to low 50s in the southeast. Gusty
winds will still pack a punch, but won`t feel quite as chilling
when the temperatures are noticeably warmer.

Scattered lake effect streamers continue overnight, perhaps
changing back over to primarily snow and making it as far south
as the I-80 corridor. Wind remain gusty, with gusts up to 30mph
still possible in the Laurel Highlands. Mostly cloudy skies are
likely for most of the area, though southeast PA will see some
clearing. This is especially relevant with the potential for
significant solar storm to impact Earth Wednesday. The Aurora
Borealis was visible as far south as Mexico Tuesday evening and
Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts indicate the storm on
Wednesday could be even stronger. If you`d like to see the
Northern Lights, you`ll likely need to drive southeast!
Temperatures by daybreak Thursday should be seasonable
generally in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level troughing will remain in place through the end of
the week, keeping the chance for rain and snow showers in the
forecast on Thursday. High pressure building in at the surface
will lower inversion heights and shut off the lake effect
machine by Friday. Clouds will persist in the northwest, while
a mix of sun and clouds is more of the norm in the southeast.
Thursday will remain a bit breezy, but winds will gradually
trend down into the weekend. Highs trend up a couple degrees
each day, with highs in the low 40s to mid 50s by Friday.

Dry conditions continue into Friday night thanks to high
pressure, which means mostly clear skies, light winds, and a
decent amount of frost by Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weekend will be marked by a storm system traversing the
region with its parent low pressure center well north of the
Great Lakes. Here in Pennsylvania, a surface warm front is
progged to track through the region on Saturday, with warm
advection showers likely along and behind that front. It remains
to be seen how much moisture will make it across the mountains
and into Central PA, but a trailing cold front Saturday night
could produce a risk for thunderstorms and perhaps some severe
weather. The most likely area for storms will be in the Ohio
Valley into western Pennsylvania, as it typical of a southwest
flow regime with the low tracking well north of Pennsylvania.

At some point in the Saturday night to Sunday timeframe, a
surface cold front will cross the area, likely with some showers
along it. Ensemble guidance progs the cold front to be rather
strong with significantly cooler and drier air building in
behind it. The exact timing of cold front passage will have big
implications on our weather in Pennsylvania. A slower passage
would allow temperatures to soar into the upper 60s across the
southeast. A faster front would put Pennsylvania in the cold
advection northwest flow regime for more of Sunday, with a risk
of gusty winds and perhaps an elevated risk of wildfire spread
across southeast PA where moisture has been harder to come by
lately.

Temperatures trend colder again next week behind the cold front.
Gusty winds will linger behind the front with lake effect
showers continuing. Thermal profiles will dictate whether
precipitation falls as rain or snow, but the best chance for
precipitation will be across the northern and western mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thick clouds overhead currently as bands of snow will tend to
break up more and lift northward as the night goes on. The
latest CAMs and upstream radar trends show the bands of snow
moving across the northeastern half of the state, but snow
remains light and no restrictions are expected at this time.
Meanwhile, just some light, likely unrestrictive snow flurries
or sprinkles could occur at MDT and LNS.

Models have winds shift back to the west more by early afternoon
on Wednesday, so sites like BFD may have more in the way of
snow showers again. Latest guidance shows additional bands of
lake effect snow moving into BFD by mid morning with
restrictions expected through the day. Most other areas will be
VFR on Wednesday. Winds will pick back up again by late morning
or early aft.

Outlook...
Thu...Rain and snow showers over northwest PA along with gusty
winds.

Fri...Improvement expected, with winds diminishing and
lingering -SHSN across NW PA diminishing as well.

Sat...Dry, generally VFR.

Sun...Increasing clouds and milder but a chance of showers,
mainly late.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ024-025-033-
034.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Banghoff
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Bowen