171
FXUS61 KCTP 062000
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
400 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Several rounds of mainly afternoon and early evening showers
  and scattered thunderstorms will bring the risk for localized
  severe wind gusts and flash flooding this weekend with the
  focus shifting mainly to the southern half of the state.

* Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
  additional rounds of showers and temperatures near to
  slightly below the seasonal averages.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A slow-moving surface cold frontal boundary stretched from the
Finger Lakes region of New York State, southwest across the
Northwest Mountains of PA and Central Ohio at 1930Z.

Several rounds of showers and TSRA (some in briefly training
small line segments) will track east across the region through
this evening, presenting the threat for isolated strong to
severe wind gusts and localized very heavy rain of over one
inch in less than an hour. Although a Flood Watch for the threat
of Flash Flooding of small streams and creeks remains in effect
until 02Z Fri across the SE part of our CWA (along and to the SE
of I-81) localized Flooding is possible practically in any
location where two or more TSRA train over the same locations
considering abundant deep layer moisture and PWAT values
in excess of 1.5 inches.

Deep layer shear will be relatively weak through tonight,
especially as we see the right entrance region of the upper
level jet max pull away to the NE of the CWA late today.

SPC has continued the MRGL risk for svr wx today. Warm cloud
depth is not too deep at less than 12kft, but again, PWAT is
near 1.5". MBE vectors are <12kts for the aftn/early evening,
and indicates a threat for slow moving cells.

The high moisture and slow movers could lead to a FF threat
despite basin-avg QPF <1" all over. Most models do not generate
QPF SE of MDT during the day. Maxes under the mainly cloudy sky
will be near 70F in the north and highest elevations of the
Laurels where clouds will be thickest/most prevalent. Expect
L80s in the Lower Susq where they have the best/longest period
of sunshine today.

Ongoing areas of convection will continue to slide slowly to
the SE through the night. However, loss of the sun will
gradually lower instability and reduce the risk for svr wx and
heavy rainfall rates/flooding by late evening.

The front will inch southeastward thru the night, and be
somewhere between UNV and MDT at sunrise Sat.

Mins tonight in the U50s-M60s thanks to the high dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to drift
to the SE Sat and limit deeper moisture and the threat of
strong convection to the SE part of the CWA on Sat.

Lighter SHRA will be possible back into AOO- UNV- IPT, but not
much farther NW than that line.

Some slightly drier air behind the front will not make any
progress SE on Sat, but will continue to dry out (L50s) over the
NW in the aftn.

Muggy air will The 60+F dewpoints will hang on until Sat night
in the SE half of the CWA. Sat night looks mainly dry, but
SHRA/TSRA move back in from the SW late in the night. Dewpoints
get into the L50s N and U50s S. That should be a refreshing but
brief change. Wind continues to veer from N-E-S Sat night-Sun-
Sun night bringing the mugginess back to the region. The risk
for svr wx returns to all but perhaps the far nrn tier on
Sunday, but could be limited by any clouds and precip in the
morning. PoPs in the categorical range are a solid bet. The
clouds/precip Sun should keep maxes a couple degs F lower than
Sat. While the E may be near normal, the SW (Laurels) may be
7-8F cooler than normal Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next period of dry weather will be mid-late week.
Temperatures close to normal for most of next week.

Earlier discussion below.

Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
rounds of showers likely as an amplified upper trough across the
Central US and Ohio Valley shears NE across the Glakes Region by
the middle of the week.

SFC and Upper level ridging over head and to our west will bring
drier conditions for much of the period Wednesday through early
Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few rounds of showers and t-storms are expected to continue to
progress slowly east across the region late today/early tonight.

Cold front moves to the south/east tonight with model data
picking up on post- frontal low clouds particularly at high
elevation terminals BFD and JST where upslope flow will be a
factor.

Outlook...

Sat...Showers/PM TSRA continue, mainly confined to the
southeastern third of central PA airspace. Drying out Saturday
night with patchy fog likely.

Sun...Next round of showers/t-storms spreads from SW to NE into
Sunday night.

Mon-Tue...Unsettled pattern continues with additional rounds of
showers and t-storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ036-056>059-
063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Martin/Gartner
AVIATION...Lambert/Steinbugl