626
FXUS61 KCTP 022307
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
707 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure will bring abundant sunshine, lower humidity,
  and seasonable temperatures through Tuesday.
* Temperatures gradually increase into next week with a small
  uptick in humidity.
* Isolated to scattered showers/storms return to central PA by
  midweek, but dry conditions persist for many.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A fantastic afternoon, weather-wise, is in progress across the
Commonwealth, with sunny skies and comfortable
temperatures/humidity levels.

This will lead into another clear, cool night, with near ideal
radiating conditions. We should see lows by morning well down
into the 40s (maybe even some isolated upper 30s) in our
normally chillier valley locales across northern PA. Areas of
river valley fog can also be anticipated once again near and
north of I-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Fine summer weather will persist through early next week, as a
surface ridge stays anchored over the northeastern and Mid-
Atlantic states. This adds up to more rain-free weather, with
sunny skies by day, and mainly clear conditions at night.

Present indications are that humidity levels will also stay at
reasonable levels, with most of the hot, muggy conditions
staying off to the south and west of the Commonwealth.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Regarding the large-scale, upper level pattern, general de-
amplification is expected with time next week, basically
reverting back to an expansive summertime upper ridge across the
southern CONUS, with a more progressive zonal type pattern near
the U.S., Canadian border.

Although, in time, the above described pattern may bring heat,
humidity, and more frequent convection back into PA, it looks
like our mostly rain-free weather could well last through the
latter part of next week, as an expansive surface high pressure
ridge only slowly nudges to the east.

Temperatures look seasonable for early August, with highs mostly
in the 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds generally around 3-5kts are progged by the bulk of model
guidance to trend calm overnight, with JST/AOO most likely to
retain a light breeze overnight. VFR conditions are virtually
certain ~100% confidence) through 00Z Monday at all airfields
outside of IPT/BFD. Valley fog formation across the northern
tier of Pennsylvania will bring about an outside chance of
restrictions at IPT (< 10% probability) with a low chance of
restrictions (~20-30%) at BFD in the 09Z-11Z timeframe. This TAF
cycle has went ahead an included MVFR restrictions for a brief
period at BFD, going off of persistence based of yesterday
evening`s observations under a similar synoptic set-up. After
12Z Sunday, virtually certain (~100% confidence) in VFR
conditions at the airfields with winds generally below 10kts.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...Dry with VFR conditions.

Wed-Thu...Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
possible, but for the most part, VFR continues.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The low in Bradford this Saturday morning of 41 degrees tied
the record of 41 set in 1985.

More climate data below.

* Top 10 warmest June+July
* Top 10 warmest July

For June + July 2025:

Harrisburg:     76.8F average temperature ranks 7th warmest
Williamsport:   74.0F average temperature ranks tied 7th warmest
Altoona:        73.1F average temperature ranks tied 3rd warmest
Bradford:       67.7F average temperature ranks 2nd warmest
State College:  73.3F average temperature ranks tied 3rd warmest

For July 2025:

Harrisburg:     79.8F average temperature ranks 8th warmest
Williamsport:   76.8F average temperature ranks tied 9th warmest
Altoona:        74.7F average temperature ranks 8th warmest
Bradford:       69.5F average temperature ranks tied 4th warmest
State College:  76.0F average temperature ranks 4th warmest

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guseman/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Jurewicz
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...Banghoff/Martin