131
FXUS61 KCTP 200252
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1052 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A cold front will push southeast across the region through
  late evening accompanied by showers and scattered
  thunderstorms, with a few containing strong westerly wind
  gusts over 60 mph.

* After a partly sunny, cooler and drier Easter Sunday, another
  batch of showers on Monday will precede moderating
  temperatures and fair weather for the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
After this afternoon`s impressive bow echo, the southern tier
was not to be outdone as a second longer lived bow raced along
the PA/MD border over the last 90 minutes, producing numerous
severe reports, including a 70kt gust at KRSP. This cell is
finally weakening as it tracks through northern MD and brushes
far southern York County.

Convection should be all but over by midnight, with some
residual showers possible over the higher terrain of western
Somerset County. The front should move south of the MD border by
06z. Expect residual clouds for the overnight despite drying air
mass, and 6-12KTs of wind and dropping Td will keep the threat
for fog low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Easter Sunday will be partly sunny S and mostly sunny N as the
clouds linger north of the old front. Very seasonable maxes in
the u50s N and l70s S as the wind comes around to the east as it
lightens up thru the day. Clouds invade from the west later Sun
night, but initially clear-ish sky will allow for mins in the
40s. Temps may rise by morning and weak showers move in to the
wrn mtns by sunrise.

Warm front-cold front pair will be just a few hour apart on
Monday. Several showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the
area, mainly in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Spring is springing with no mentions of snow in the long term
fcst. This is thanks to long-wave ridging overhead and a
prolonged stretch of above average temperatures. One weather system
pushes through the region on Mon/Mon night bringing only light
rainfall amounts to the region (generally less than a quarter of
an inch). Then, we get a several day stretch of dry and mild
weather. 8H temps in the double digits above zero will mean
mild and even warm temps for most of the period. Another system
moves thru late in the period on Friday and Friday night,
bringing another chance for rain and perhaps some storms.

Highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s will be
trend. Mins should stay above freezing in all of Central PA
thru the period, with many nights only dipping into the m50s in
the S. Portions of northern PA who have not quite seen
grass/flowers takeoff yet should see a burst of green over the
next week or two.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Thunderstorms are mainly limited to areas south of JST and AOO
as of 23Z, with very little impact expected to any airfields
through the rest of the night. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots will
be possible for a few more hours before decreasing overnight.
VFR conditions are being observed everywhere except BFD where lo
clouds have started to move in. These low clouds will expand
southeastward into the overnight hours with MVFR ceilings
expected at JST after 03Z. A brief period of MVFR conditions is
also expected at UNV and AOO as well. Model RH profiles suggest
that low clouds could make it to IPT, but the HREF shows only a
30% chance of this happening.

Low clouds will dissipate into the morning as high pressure
builds in. VFR conditions are then expected for most of Sunday
with mainly clear skies. Winds will be light for most of the
area, though there could be a few hours of wind gusts to 25
knots east of UNV during the late morning/early afternoon.

Outlook...

Sun Night...VFR. Chance of rain showers at KBFD and KJST as
warm front lifts northeast.

Mon...Another round of showers and a few t-storms possible with
cold FROPA into Monday night. LLWS psbl.

Tue...Low cigs KBFD/KJST and few rain showers psbl early then
trending VFR.

Wed - Thu...VFR with mainly clear skies and light winds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco