501
FXUS61 KCTP 302332
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
732 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Dry weather is expected to continue through the middle of next
  week, featuring cool nights, and warm comfortable afternoons
* Frost possible again Sunday morning in northern PA.
* Next chance for rain comes Thursday and Friday with a cold
  front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes this evening and
will continue to drift southeast into Pennsylvania tonight. The
result will be clear skies and calm winds with ideal radiational
cooling conditions. A Frost Advisory is in effect for McKean
County, where confidence is highest that temperatures will drop
below 37F tonight, but patchy frost is also possible in the
deepest valleys and typical cool spots across the rest of
northern and central Pennsylvania. Lows by Sunday morning will
range from the mid 30s in the north to near 50 across the
southeast.

Sunday will be another magnificent fall day with clear skies and
pleasant temperatures. Afternoon highs will be 5 to 8 degrees
warmer on Sunday than they were today, which gets us just about
back to average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Although a general upper-level trough axis will stay situated
over the northeastern states through Labor Day, heights aloft
will generally be rising. With dry surface high pressure still
in control as well, look for more sunny days and clear nights.

Nights will be chilly, but likely not as cold as Friday or
Saturday nights. Afternoons should reach well into the 70s, with
even some lower 80s possible in the Susquehanna Valley by
Monday. Rain-free conditions will be ideal for any Labor Day
festivities held outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper-level, synoptic-scale configuration looks to feature
a transition towards an amplified pattern, with a building
western North American ridge axis, a deepening Great Lakes and
Midwestern trough axis, and a western Atlantic ridge. Given
consistency of our ensemble prediction systems in showing this
pattern, confidence is relatively high.

At the beginning of the period (Tuesday and Wednesday), with a
deep layer of dry air still in place and continued moderation of
daytime highs over time, minimum afternoon RH values will dip.
By Wednesday, we may also see increasing SW winds in the
boundary layer, as surface high pressure starts to push eastward
off the coast. In fact, on Wednesday, ensemble probabilities
for combined sub-30% RH and wind gusts of greater than 20 mph
are locally 30-40%. Thus, we may have to watch fire weather
parameters more closely by Wednesday, particularly given our
lack of rainfall for much of the Commonwealth in the last 2-4
weeks.

Later in the week, it is anticipated that the lower-level flow
will turn more southerly and bring increased moisture into the
region. Also, with an approaching cold front from the northwest
and deepening troughing aloft upstream (mentioned above), the
chances for showers should increase.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure will keep mainly clear skies and light winds
over the area through Labor Day and most likely until next
Wed.

Some clouds now and then, but not much else. For tonight,
went with VCFG at BFD after Midnight, as the earlier package
had. The airmass is quite dry for fog, and we did not have much
fog last night. Also not much rain for the month of August,
just some during the second part of the month. Therefore not
much moisture to work with at night for fog.

Perhaps some showers late Wednesday into Thursday, as a cold
front nears the area from the west.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...AM valley fog possible; otherwise predominantly VFR.

Wed...Isolated SHRA possible in the afternoon across the far
west at locations such as BFD and JST.

Thu...More in the way of widespread showers. Not much chance
of a thunderstorm at this point.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ005.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Jurewicz
AVIATION...Martin