556
FXUS61 KCTP 071822
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
222 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A nice end to the Labor Day weekend.

2) Uptick in heat and humidity for mid midweek.

3) Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A nice end to the Labor Day weekend.

A refreshingly low dewpoint airmass has settled in across
Pennsylvania and will ensure pleasant conditions for Labor Day
outdoor activities.

   ----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Uptick in heat and humidity for midweek.

As the center of high pressure drifts southeast of PA on Tuesday
and Wednesday, return southwesterly flow will usher in an uptick
and heat and humidity. The never ending ridge of high pressure
centered over the Central US will also begin to nudge into the
Mid Atlantic as upper troughing over the Northeast retreats and
the amplified upper level pattern begins to flatten out a bit.

Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s and
Wednesday will trend about 5 degrees warmer areawide. Combined
with dewpoints back in the mid to upper 60s, heat index values
may crest the 90F mark in the south central mountains on
Wednesday. Dry conditions will prevail and we`ll continue to
enjoy a break from very active stretch of severe weather we`ve
dealt with this summer.

   ----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Showers, storms, and gusty winds Wednesday night
into Thursday.

By Wednesday night, a low pressure system will be moving across
northern Ontario with a cold front extending south through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. The pressure gradient
will support a notable uptick in synoptic scale winds Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday. It`s been awhile since we`ve had
widespread gusty winds, but we`re getting into the time of year
where such a weather pattern becomes more common.

Gusty winds will ramp up Wednesday during the day out of the
southwest ahead of an approaching cold front, and continue
through Thursday afternoon shifting to a westerly direction
after the front passes. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph seem
realistic at this point, with the highest readings occurring at
higher elevations in the Laurel Highlands.

The cold front will also bring a chance for showers and storms
ahead of and along the front. The risk for severe weather will
depend on the magnitude of a shortwave trough racing through
the region and any associated jet dynamics in play.

Vertical wind profiles look unidirectional, so the primary
hazard would be from damaging winds. Timing of the cold front
and dewpoints largely staying out of the upper 60s to lower
70s range are the 2 main reasons to think storms will not get
too crazy, unlike recent events. Timing of the cold front has
been similar the last few days.

Rain arrives in northwest PA late Wednesday night and will sag
south across the Commonwealth during the day on Thursday.

High pressure builds behind the cold front, giving way to a dry
and sunny Friday. There could be a few isolated PM showers and a
storm or two on Saturday or Sunday, but most locations will stay
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are virtually certain to continue this afternoon
and evening with plentiful sunshine and light winds. There will
be some fair weather stratocumulus clouds across the region
this afternoon before dissipating this evening; however, any
decks will likely stay between 3,000-4,000 ft AGL. Guidance
outlines another round of patchy fog will be possible into
Tuesday morning, though it may not be as extensive as it is this
morning. BFD/UNV/IPT will be the main airfields of concern;
however, drier low-level dry air in recent observations allows
for slightly higher confidence in less restrictions overnight
into Tuesday morning. Any fog Tuesday morning likely mixes out
quickly with VFR conditions likely (> 90% chance) by 14Z and
into the end of the 18Z TAF package.

Outlook...

Wed...Primarily VFR, although late-day SHRA/TSRA possible
across the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA could bring scattered SHRA/TSRA areawide.

Fri...VFR prevails with drier conditions across all of central
Pennsylvania.

Sat...Primarily VFR conditions, some potential for afternoon
SHRA/TSRA but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Martin
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Martin
AVIATION...Bauco/Beaty