410
FXUS61 KCTP 232349
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
749 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*Lowered dewpoints and minimum RH this afternoon.
*WPC added a level 1/4 excessive rain risk for Monday 7/27.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Pleasant/dry pattern continues into the last weekend of July.
2) Turning more humid with showers and storms next week. Perhaps
a few strong storms with heavy rain at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Pleasant/dry pattern continues into the last
weekend of July.

After a stormy period since last weekend, a really nice
afternoon outside with clear skies and low humidity levels.
PW values about as low as they get this time of year.

High pressure over the region will provide the area with
another night with clear skies and cool temperatures.

Friday will feature another day of sunshine and low humidity.

While there could be a shower or storm over the region this
weekend, the airmass remains rather dry. Main support for any
activity would be across western sections on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Turning more humid with showers and storms next
week. Perhaps a few strong storms with heavy rain at times.

Weak systems dropping southeast next week will bring chances
for showers and storms at times. Systems are rather weak and
will be moving along, so timing would be a factor.

The other factor is that the higher dewpoint air is expected
to be rather limited, mainly later on Tuesday.

Main timing for anything widespread would be late Monday night
into early Wednesday.

More detail below.

The pattern looks increasingly unsettled Sunday into the middle
of next week as upper troughing is carved out over the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states.

Ample northern stream system energies set to dig into the upper
trough position will support potential for strong storms and
heavy rainfall. WPC introduced a broad level 1/4 marginal
excessive rain risk for D5/Monday July 27 that covers most of
CPA.

Severe storm potential could shift east/southeast on Tuesday.
Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low,
and will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the
Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR prevails through the 00Z TAF period as high pressure
building over the area provides mainly clear skies.

Not a lot of potential for fog tonight, fcst temperatures
fcst to drop to near dewpoints, but dewpoints are fcst to
fall too, so not really much chance of reaching the cross
over temperature for fog formation at our 7 TAF sites. The
airmass about as dry as it gets in July.

Light/variable winds overnight will trend southeasterly at
around 5-10 kts during the day on Friday.

Outlook...

Sat...Generally VFR conditions with low-end (< 20%) chance of an
afternoon shower/storm across western sections of central PA.

Sun...Increasing chances of PM showers/storms, with some
restrictions possible.

Mon-Tue...Restrictions possible in showers/storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Martin
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Martin
AVIATION...Martin/Teare