420
FXUS61 KCTP 192044
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
444 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Dry spell and warming trend continues through Tuesday with
 temperatures trending above the historical average for late
 October; Fall foliage at or near peak in most of Central PA
*Breezy, moisture-starved frontal passage brings an increased
 wildfire risk and limited opportunity for rain into the middle
 of next week
*Seasonably cooler end to next week with odds favoring dry
 weather into the last weekend of October

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Late afternoon discussion.

Fine fall afternoon outside, with bright sunny skies, light
winds and very dry air. Minor changes to tempeatures based on
current obs. Like last night, expect a huge variation in
temperatures as sun lowers in the sky, given how dry the airmass
is.

Earlier discussion below.

Cloud-free sunshine gives way to a moonlit sky tonight. We
continued to lean on the lower-end NBM percentiles for min
temps given very dry air and efficient radiational cooling.

Valley fog remains likely in the usual river/stream valleys in
north central PA, while areas of frost prompted a frost
advisory in the 5 active zones in the lower Susq Valley where
the growing season remains active.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry spell continues through Tuesday with high pressure
dominating the pattern. Max and Min temps will make a series of
higher highs and lows within an overall bullish warming trend.
That said, we continued to lean warmer during the day and cooler
at night given the prevailing synoptic pattern and dry air
remaining in place. Daytime max temps will be 10 to 20 degrees
above the historical average and could make a run toward daily
record levels by Tuesday with highs in the 75-80F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Guidance shows a weakening shortwave approaching the region
Tues night into Wednesday, but moisture will be limited and the
only impact will be an increase in cloud cover.However, a
stronger shortwave will push a cold front across the region Wed
night. The best forcing looks to remain north of Pennsylvania
with this system, but there should at least be a chance for rain
showers across most of Central PA. Rainfall will be light with
ensemble mean QPF generally less than 0.2 inches.

This front will be followed by a cool down for the later part
of next week, with highs dropping back into the 50s and low 60s
for Thursday and Friday. Uncertainty increases into next weekend
with some guidance showing a weak disturbance bringing the
chance for some more rainfall to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clear skies with very dry air thanks to high pressure over
Central PA will continue to provide VFR conditions through
Sunday. The only exception would be patchy valley fog overnight.
IPT again looks to be the site with the greatest chance of
seeing any impacts, but confidence is too low (less than 30%)
to include any restrictions in the TAF.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...VFR with light winds. Valley fog possible nrn PA each
AM (but not lkly at any of the terminals).

Wed...Showers approaching BFD during the late afternoon and
spreading southeastward into the evening.

Thu...AM showers decreasing in coverage through the day.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ057-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Martin
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Evanego/Bauco
AVIATION...Colbert/Bauco