723
FXUS61 KCTP 080125
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
925 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Beneficial rainfall overnight before ending from NW to SE
  early Wednesday morning
* Breezy and much cooler tomorrow feeling more like Fall; start
  of another prolonged dry stretch into the weekend
* Nighttime frost/freeze potential increasing mid to late week
* Some chc of showers across southeast PA early next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Most of the rain so far as of 9 PM has been along the shoreline
of Lake Erie and over far southwest PA.

Current obs and radar support band of heavier rain lifting
northeast across the Susquehanna Valley this evening so far.
This activity will continue the next few hours, before being
further east by late tonight. Current temperatures on track,
along with the winds.

Earlier discussion below.

Wave of low pressure and PW max near KY/IN/OH seems to have
robbed the best moisture return so far into CPA via southwest
LLJ ahead of primary cold front crossing Lake Erie. All
indications from hires model data indicate a continued
uptick/west-to-east expansion of shower activity through the
evening hours with beneficial rainfall continuing overnight into
early Wednesday morning.

Much drier/increasing northerly flow behind the cold front will
end rainfall from NW to SE across most of CPA by 12Z/8AM Wed.
Min temps trend 10-15 degrees lower across the NW mtns with lows
in the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Hints of just enough of a breeze to taper the cold Wednesday
night, but it will still be on the cold side, so would still
be expecting that at some point that headlines will be needed.

Thursday night looks to be the colder night with a weak
pressure gradient and high 500 mb heights and low PW values,
hard to see how one would not get colder than Wednesday night.

Earlier discussion below.

Turing breezy and noticeably cooler tomorrow with mix of sun
and clouds as 1030+mb high pressure migrates southeastward over
the Great Lakes. The airmass associated with this seasonably
strong anticyclone will be the coldest so far this season and
bring (after many days of above normal daytime warmth) the
first prolonged stretch of seasonably cooler Fall weather to
CPA. This stretch should also include the first widespread frost
and freeze with the highest risk Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be needed
in the next 1-2 forecast cycles. Max temps on Thursday are
expected to be ~5 degrees below the historical average for early
October.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Have low chc pops in the far southeast for Sunday. I been
watching this system since Monday. Interaction between a
developing low just off the coast early on and an upper level
low dropping southeast could at least make for a breezy and
cool day on Sunday and perhaps Monday as well, especially if it
is cloudy. Also a nasty setup for our coastal friends. At least
not talking winter weather with this one. Will continue to
monitor the situation over the next few days.

After this lookng at perhaps a bit of a moderating trend as we
get to the middle of next week.

Earlier discussion below.

High pressure stays pretty much locked in over the region in
stagnant blocking pattern with closed/sfc low offshore the OBX.
This will translate into an extended dry stretch at least
through Saturday. Easterly flow could begin to influence the
area by the end of the weekend with various model solutions even
suggesting some potential for rain across the eastern part of
the forecast area as the low tracks northward off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Daytime highs trend near to above the seasonal
average with the largest departures (+5-10F) across northwest
PA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Multiple rounds of showers will continue through the night
ahead of a cold front which is just beginning to enter northwest
PA. Some of the showers may be heavy and may lead to visibility
restrictions. While there has been occasional lightning with
some of the showers over northern Maryland, as well as with the
showers along the cold front itself, we will continue to keep
mentions of thunder out of the TAFs as the already limited
instability will decrease over the next couple of hours.

IFR ceilings have developed at BFD and JST, but all other TAF
sites remain VFR as of 23Z. Low clouds will gradually expand
eastward into the early morning, but there is a wide range of
solutions in the models as to how low ceilings get. The LAMP
suggests a prolonged period of IFR ceilings at all airfields
except MDT and LNS, but the HREF indicates a high probability of
ceilings improving quickly behind the cold front as much drier
air works its way in from the northwest. Model RH profiles from
the HRRR and RAP would favor the HREF solution, and we have
leaned towards that outcome with the 00Z TAF package. IFR
visibilities also can`t be completely ruled out across the area,
but the best chance for that appears to be at JST.

Cloud cover quickly decreases after sunrise as high pressure
builds in, giving way to mainly clear skies with scattered
diurnal cumulus in the afternoon. Winds will turn to the
northwest behind the cold front and will be sustained at 10 to
15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely.

Outlook...

Thu...VFR.

Fri-Sun...Patchy AM fog, otherwise clear with VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Martin
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Martin
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Martin
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Martin/Bauco
AVIATION...Bauco