


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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745 FXUS61 KCTP 040739 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 339 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Incredible weather for Independence Day with plenty of sun, seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity * Warming trend into the first weekend of July with hot/humid conditions expected to peak Sunday and Monday * Isolated t-storms possible downwind of Lake Erie and over the Allegheny/Laurel ridgetops Saturday afternoon and evening; daily chances for showers and t-storms next week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Nighttime IR channel difference imagery is detecting fog in the valleys across the northern tier of CPA into the Coal Region and Poconos/NEPA. Radiational cooling along with spotty rainfall last evening and air/water spread >= 20 degrees are all contributing for fog formation. A quick check of mesonet obs indicates some of the usual cool spots in the northern mtns should dip into the upper 40s prior to sunrise; the last time BFD had a low temp in the 40s was back on June 11th. Fog will dissipate quickly between 7-8AM in most locations. An incredible Independence Day for CPA with abundant sunshine, seasonable temperatures, 0% chance of rain and low/comfortable humidity. Max temps between 75-85F are within +/- 3 degrees of 4th of July climo. Continued to lean on the low-end of the guidance for dewpoints which drops minRH AOB 40% in most areas. Good viewing conditions for fireworks tonight with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and overnight low temps in the 50-60F range. That said, very light wind and low level nocturnal stability should impact/limit smoke dispersion. Some valley fog is also possible again in a few spots late tonight into early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Warming trend expected over the first weekend of July along with an uptick in humidity/dewpoints. Max temps on Saturday are +3-8F warmer vs. Friday, but dewpoints/humidity levels remain generally tolerable/seasonable in the 60-65F range. That changes by Sunday by adding another 2-4 degrees to max temps (mid 80s to low 90s) with Td climbing above 65F in the central and eastern valleys. In other words, hot and humid by the end of the holiday weekend with min temps also making a series of higher-lows. In terms of precip, there is an emerging signal in the HREF for isolated to scattered diurnal showers/t-storms downwind of Lake Erie and over the ridgetops along the Allegheny Plateau and Laurels. We coordinated with BUF & CLE to add low POPs across the NW mtns Saturday afternoon and evening which also lines up well with SPC general/non-severe thunderstorm outlook area. Sunday still looks rain-free for now as CPA will be in the squeeze play subsidence zone between approaching cold front to the west and potential tropical/subtropical depression near the Carolina coast. Warmer temps aloft @700mb should also suppress any terrain induced convection. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PoPs increase into Monday and Tuesday as a trough arrives and taps into some tropical moisture off the East Coast. Very warm weather will continue on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Temps will fall a few degrees into Tue. PoPs drop into the 20-40 pct range on Wed as heights briefly rise over the area, before the PoPs rise again Thursday with the approach of another shortwave trough. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Great weather overnight into the upcoming holiday weekend, as high pressure build into the area with rather dry air to start with for early July. Often the 4th of July can be active with thunderstorms. The potential for fog overnight is low, given most of the area did not get rain today and now the drier air is working into the area. Outlook... Sat-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR. Mon-Tue...Potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Colbert AVIATION...Martin