838
FXUS61 KCTP 121906
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
306 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Decreased chc for SHRA/TSRA and removed mention of SVR TSRA for
late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat advisory in effect across the Lower Susq Valley and
adjacent Scent PA through early this evening. Relief should be
here for Sat.

2) A few fast-moving and generally low-topped TSRA are expected
to flare up late this afternoon across the Eastern third of the
CWA, with some producing brief gusty winds.

3) More storms will move into PA Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat advisory in effect across the Lower Susq Valley and
adjacent Scent PA through early this evening. Relief should be
here for Sat

As expected for many days, the heat and humidity will remain
high through the daylight hours today over the SE. Overall,
there are just minor adjustments to the temps/dewpoints for this
afternoon.

The passage of a cold front late today/tonight will usher in
lower dewpoint air and make it feel much less muggy on Sat.
Afternoon RH in the 35-45% range will feel refreshing after a
couple of very humid days. Temps will still be hot, getting into
the 80s and perhaps near 90F Sat.

   ---------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: A few fast-moving and generally low-topped TSRA
are expected to flare up late this afternoon across the Eastern
third of the CWA, with some producing brief gusty winds.

LLVL flow is broadly diffluent across much of the CWA with weak,
neg llvl theta-E advection ahead of a cold front helping to
negate much in the way of deep convection this afternoon.
Furthermore, showers that developed across the Laurel Highlands
and Wcent Mtns have dissipated as they moved into the enhanced
llvl downsloping along the eastern edge of the Alleghenies.

Some development of a few taller showers and brief TSRA is still
possible near and to the east of the RT 15 corridor, approx from
KELM to KIPT and KTHV, but any threat of strong/damaging wind
gusts has greatly diminished in this aforementioned unfavorable
environment for deep convection.

   ---------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: More storms will move into PA Sunday afternoon.

After the drier Sat, the flow backs and the more-southerly flow
brings more-humid air back into PA. The mugginess will be
noticed the most in the SE, with the Td just nearing 60F in the
aftn. A very narrow jet buckles just a little and provides
sufficient dynamics for another afternoon and evening round of
severe thunderstorms. Arrival looks mid-late aftn NW with the
storms crossing the CWA and exiting to the SE by 10-11PM. Some
storms are possible out ahead of the front associated with the
upper dynamics. The next visit from organized storms will likely
not be until at least mid week (Thurs).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drying, westerly downslope flow and broad llvl diffluent flow
will prevent much coverage of otherwise fast moving showers and
maybe a brief TSRA to the east of a KIPT to KSEG and KTHV line
through 00Z Sat.

Have some VCSH in most of the TAFS later this afternoon, but
even that convective development is looking less likely attm.

Otherwise, look for essentially VFR conditions to prevail late
this afternoon right through Saturday.

A break on Saturday, but a stronger cold front on Sunday will
bring the potential for more strong storms on Sunday.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR favored early, with restrictions possible as FROPA
brings chance of -SHRA/-TSRA later in the day.

Monday...Additional scattered -SHRA and associated restrictions
possible.

Tuesday...Still a slight chance of showers and storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ036-057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin