863
FXUS61 KCTP 041552
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1152 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Incredible weather for Independence Day with plenty of sun,
  seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity
* Warming trend into the first weekend of July with hot/humid
  conditions expected to peak Sunday and Monday
* Isolated t-storms possible downwind of Lake Erie and over the
  Allegheny/Laurel ridgetops Saturday afternoon and evening;
  daily chances for showers and t-storms next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Spectacular weather for this Independence Day across Central PA
with below normal Precip Water of just 0.4 to 0.7 of an inch
helping to provide nearly cloud free skies and excellent vsby
for a Summer day.

Mid-Late afternoon high temps between 75-85F are within +/- 3
degrees of 4th of July climo. Continued to lean on the low- end
of the guidance for dewpoints which drops minRH AOB 40% in most
areas.

Good viewing conditions for fireworks tonight with mainly clear
to partly cloudy skies and overnight low temps in the 50-60F
range. That said, very light wind and low level nocturnal
stability should impact/limit smoke dispersion.

Some fog is also possible again late tonight/early Saturday
throughout the deeper valleys in Northern PA similar to this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Warming trend expected over the first weekend of July along with
an uptick in humidity/dewpoints as we progress through the day
Saturday.

Max temps on Saturday are +3-8F warmer vs. Friday, but
dewpoints/humidity levels remain generally tolerable/seasonable
in the 60-65F range. That changes by Sunday by adding another
2-4 degrees to max temps (mid 80s to low 90s) with Td climbing
above 65F in the central and eastern valleys. In other words,
hot and humid by the end of the holiday weekend with min temps
also making a series of higher- lows.

In terms of precip, there is an emerging signal in the HREF for
isolated to scattered diurnal showers/t-storms downwind of Lake
Erie and over the ridgetops along the Allegheny Plateau and
Laurels. We coordinated with BUF & CLE to add low POPs across
the NW mtns Saturday afternoon and evening which also lines up
well with SPC general/non-severe thunderstorm outlook area.
Sunday still looks rain-free for now as CPA will be in the
squeeze play subsidence zone between approaching cold front to
the west and potential tropical/subtropical depression near the
Carolina coast. Warmer temps aloft @700mb should also suppress
any terrain induced convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PoPs increase into Monday and Tuesday as a trough arrives and
taps into some tropical moisture off the East Coast. Very warm
weather will continue on Monday with highs in the mid to upper
80s. Temps will fall a few degrees into Tue. PoPs drop into the
20-40 pct range on Wed as heights briefly rise over the area,
before the PoPs rise again Thursday with the approach of another
shortwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A beautiful day is on deck for this 4th of July. Skies are
expected to remain clear and winds will be light and variable.
Dry conditions and VFR will prevail throughout the day and into
tonight.

There will again be the possibility for some early morning
valley fog across the airspace, but impacts to airfields is
expected to remain limited. Overall confidence in fog
development remains low.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

Mon-Tue...Potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Bowen