459
FXUS61 KCTP 032343
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
743 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered dewpoints and raised wind gusts slightly for the rest
  of the afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures trend warmer today through the first few days
of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures start to trend warmer today through
the first few days of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that
will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday
and Thursday.

After the nip in the air today with highs still 5-10 deg F below
normal, expect to see high temperatures jump into the 60s and
70s on Monday and Tuesday as a moderately gusty southwesterly
flow develops out ahead of the next, slow-moving cold front.

A few locations across south-central PA may even push the 80
degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Scattered-numerous showers will
impact the region (mainly the NW 1/2 of PA) on Tuesday,
especially across northwest PA. The higher chance for showers
and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of
a slow-moving cold front.

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front for late
in the upcoming week, with potential frost/freeze concerns
developing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00z update... Confidence remains quite high (90+%) in
VFR/unrestricted conditions through 00z Tuesday.

As a surface ridge shifts off the east coast later tonight and
Monday, low-level winds will switch into the S and SW and become
gusty (up to 20-25 kt) by midday Monday.

Outlook...

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE;
restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Bauco
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Beaty/RXR