164
FXUS61 KCTP 152001
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
401 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Wildfire smoke from Ontario, Canada and Minnesota will trigger
  code red/orange air quality alerts for Thursday and Friday
* Added chance of locally heavy rainfall Saturday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few damaging wind gusts or instances of hail may occur
over the next few hours across east-central PA

2) Hot temperatures and risk of heat related impacts peak this
afternoon

3) Wildfire smoke from Ontario, Canada and Minnesota will
trigger code red and orange air quality alerts Thursday and
Friday

4) Thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy rainfall to
start the weekend followed by cooling trend next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A few damaging wind gusts or instances of hail
may occur over the next few hours across east-central PA

Radar trends indicate somewhat vigorous convective development
over northeast PA on the leading edge of thick belt of smoke
moving southward from NY. SPC just issued MCD #1626 for this
area indicating brief wind/hail potential and unlikely
watch issuance (20%).

KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot temperatures and risk of heat related
impacts peak this afternoon

IPT, MDT, LNS, SEG, CXY, THV, and RVL have eclipsed the
century mark for max heat index so far today. MDT most likely
to challenge daily record high based on 19Z observations.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Wildfire smoke from Ontario, Canada and
Minnesota will trigger code red and orange air quality alerts
Thursday and Friday

Visible satellite loop shows wildfire smoke plume entering
northern PA this afternoon. The smoke will spread from north to
south through tonight and trigger air quality alerts for
Thursday and Friday.

The PA Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has issued
statewide code red and orange air quality alert for Thursday
and Friday, July 16-17th.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy
rainfall to start the weekend followed by cooling trend next
week

Thunderstorms are expected Saturday and could produce locally
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. PW values are
forecast to reach the 1.5-2.0" range which suggests intense rain
rates will be possible. The second half of the weekend looks dry
on Sunday. Additional bouts of rain/t-storms are possible into
the workweek with unsettled conditions. Temperatures will
trend near to below historical averages through late week with
some noticeable cooler nights possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Looking at largely VFR conditions into this evening.

An isolated shower or storm could form, but left out of the
TAFS, given low potential. The airmass is quite warm aloft,
so not a lot of support for much in the way of shower and
storm formation.

Smoke from fires up in Canada will be across the area through
Thursday. At this time the smoke is mainly elevated. For the
TAFS I did bring some smoke later tonight into Thursday.
I did not bring visibilities down real low at this time.

Outlook...

Fri AM...Mainly VFR, with areas of late night/AM fog. Some
reduced visibility possible from smoke, with an isolated late-
day SHRA/TSRA possible.

Fri PM-Sun...Chance of showers and t-storms, mainly during
the afternoon hours on Saturday into early Sunday aft.

Mon...Partial clearing.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high max temperatures for July 15th
_______________________
SITE    | RECORD/YEAR |
-----------------------
MDT     |   99/2024   |
-----------------------
IPT     |  103/1995   |
-----------------------
AOO     |   98/1995   |
-----------------------
BFD     |   88/2013   |
-----------------------
STCP1   |   97/1887   |
-----------------------

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ019-026>028-
035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl