790
FXUS61 KCTP 020952
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
552 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Showers and thunderstorms, some with locally heavy downpours,
  will diminish overnight
* Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely for
  mid to late week, with a high confidence of dry weather and
  seasonable temperatures on Independence Day
* Trending warmer and more humid this weekend; unsettled pattern
  returns by Sunday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Nighttime microphysics RGB sat loop shows fog and low clouds
filling in the areas that have cleared of the thicker/higher
clouds and rain showers. Thus far, DuBois, Clearfield and
Wellsboro are the only places dipping to 1/4sm as some places
are getting the low cloud deck vs fog. However, if the low
visbys spread, we may issue a dense fog advy. Have tweaked the
sky cover and wx grids to make more mentions of the low clouds
and fog vs what guidance was giving us.

Just lingering light showers currently over the SE (330 AM).
Mid-level trough does push east this morning, so those showers
should do so, as well. It`s tough to pick out a prominent cold
front without much dip in the dewpoints. BFD is still above
60F on Td, and probably won`t get down to 55F this aftn.
Elsewhere, the dewpoints/RH remain high and the air remains
sticky. The drier air won`t be all that much drier over the SE
with m-u60s still in store there even during peak mixing later
today. Maxes of 77-87F across the region seem fine, and are very
near seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly clear sky expected for most of the night, until the
approach of a weak cold front from the N. Weak ridging over the
area should allow for light wind and some fog. The fog should
not be as widespread as this (Wed) AM. The clouds coming in
with the front will try to make a shower around or just before
sunrise over the NW. Short wave trough aloft and a jet max of
70+KTs will help drive some taller showers and support a MRGL
risk of severe wx. Deep layer shear will be 40-60KTs, with the
higher values across the NE. The cells should be moving along
and PWATs much nearer to normal than of late (1-1.25"). So, not
expecting any flooding issues. Did add in a 20 PoP to the SE
after 00Z, but those SHRA/TSRA should dwindle quickly after
sunset and the passage of the good forcing in the early evening.
One more chance for fog (only in the valleys of the nrn mtns)
Fri AM.

Prev...
We continue to have high confidence/conviction in a really nice
Independence Day with a near zero chance for rain and great
viewing for fireworks. The wind will be pretty light, if not
calm, at 8-9PM, and may keep the smoke around with little
evacuation. Min temps Friday night will be quite comfortable in
the low 50s to low 60s.

Humidity levels start to creep upward to start the first
weekend of July; however it will remain dry with unsettled
weather expected to return Sunday into early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure approaching the Great Lakes by Sunday morning will
bring about increasing chances for precipitation for the second
half of the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Just enough wind above the ground to keep the fog and low
clouds from being too widespread and consistent. Fog in and
out at some aras overnight. A bit more widespread now, as the
sun comes up, but that is normal as the sun comes up.

Thus expect conditions to become VFR at all areas by mid
morning.

Other than maybe a few drops of rain at LNS early on, expect
a break from showers and storms today. The airmass will dry out
a bit, so not looking at much potential for fog tonight.

For Thursday, some chance of a gusty storm with brief heavy
rain, but any of these would not last long in any one spot,
plus that is beyond the time range of the 12Z TAF package.

Outlook...

Thu...Primarily VFR; stray PM shower/t-storm possible.

Fri-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-026-034-037-041-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Banghoff/NPB
AVIATION...Martin