438
FXUS61 KCTP 020810
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
410 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased clouds through the morning across the Northwest
  Mountains and introduced a 20-30 POP for snow showers there as
  a spoke of a cold pool aloft moves into NW PA.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and unsettled pattern continues this weekend with a
frost/freeze risk early today across Central and Northern PA and
again tonight and early Sunday across a larger area in Central
and Southern PA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cool and unsettled pattern continues this weekend
with a frost/freeze risk early today across Central and
Northern PA and again tonight and early Sunday across a larger
area in Central and Southern PA.

Several spokes of energy rotating around a broad, slow-moving
upper level closed low centered over Ontario and Quebec will
lead to variable amounts of clouds and a low probability for
rain and snow showers, primarily across the NW Mtns of PA
today.

Introduced the 20-30 POP for -SHSN across the NW Mtns this
morning as RAP Guidance shows 0.5 KM Wet bulb temps of -3 to -5C
there at 08Z Sat.

This pattern will bring variable amounts of clouds and scattered
late morning/afternoon sprinkles over roughly the NW half of the
state.

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories that are currently in
effect through 13Z today across Central and NW Pa will almost
certainly be issued again for tonight/early Sunday and expanded
to the SE into the Lower Susq Valley and Western Poconos as we
expect to see the lowest temperatures of this current cool
spell.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the southeastward
extent of frost as there will be a rather tight pressure
gradient across the region due to a developing area of low
pressure off of the coast.

Temperatures will be trending warmer for the beginning of the
week, but all guidance indicates that unsettled weather will
continue with multiple chances for rain next week, with the
highest PoPs Wed- Thu. Latest guidance also suggests a potential
return of frost/freeze conditions by Thursday and Friday
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers mainly limited to the eastern periphery of the forecast
area, with rain chances likely continuing at LNS for the next
hour before mentions are mostly out of region for the overnight
period. Model guidance suggests that skies will begin to clear
out toward sunrise, which may lead to patchy fog given wet
ground and light winds. Area of highest concern will be at BFD
with SKC in most recent observations, mainly in the 08-12Z
timeframe. Low ceiling development will also be possible at JST
based on recent GLAMP/HREF model guidance, so have outlines
this in the 06Z TAF package through sunrise.

Winds will shift from a prevailing southwesterly flow to a more
northwesterly one across the state by daybreak. Prevailing
winds will mostly be in the single digits (5-10 kts) with some
scattered gusts in the teens possible (10-15 kts). After
daybreak tomorrow across most TAF sites, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. JST may have the most trouble removing low
level clouds into the morning.

Outlook...

Sun...SHRA moves in late; otherwise, VFR expected.

Mon...SHRA potential increases during PM hours, some TSRA
possible across N/W PA. Restrictions possible.

Tue...SHRA becomes more widespread, TSRA chances expand across
much of central PA. Restrictions possible.

Wed...Scattered SHRA remain. Restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-041-042-045-046-049-050-056.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Colbert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Beaty/RXR