031
FXUS61 KCTP 140237
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1037 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Cold front moves in from the north tonight and slows/stalls
  over the state tonight. Isolated showers will linger into the
  overnight hours.
* Afternoon thunderstorms are possible Thursday, mainly S
* Dry Friday with low humidity before PM thunderstorms return
  Saturday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms across the area continue to diminish
with the loss of daytime heating and eastward propagation of an
upper trough/surface vort max currently overhead. A few
isolated showers are possible overnight as a cold front moves
into the region. The cold front should get into the central mtns
tonight and slow down considerably. Clearing skies, calming
winds, and high dewpoints should support widespread valley fog
by daybreak as lows fall into the upper 50s in the northwest
mountains and stay in the upper 70s in southeast PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to move slowly southeast during the
day on Thursday. That will leave a lifting mechanism in place
for the central and srn zones. The higher (30-40) PoPs should
be in the SE half with the NW staying dry as the dewpoints there
drop into the M50s - even while Lancaster Co holds onto
dewpoints in the L70s. Coverage of storms should be isolated to
scattered and the threat for severe weather or flash flooding
seems quite low.

More fog possible Thursday night, even as lower dewpoints move
into northwest PA. Friday morning will be the coolest of this
stretch as high pressure moves in and radiational cooling
supports lows perhaps starting with a 4 in the coldest parts of
northwest PA. Dewpoints will stay up in the southeast (mid 60s),
as the true drier/cooler airmass fails to truly clear the
Mason-Dixon Line.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lowering humidity on Friday will bring some minor/temporary
relief to summertime humidity, but overall there is no end to
our run of hot/above normal temperatures through mid August.

Minor plume of moisture along a weak trough will allow for a few
diurnal TSRA Saturday along the spine of the Appalachians.
A cold front then moves down into the area later Sunday, and
should have scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA in advance of and
along the front. The sfc high behind that front should be strong
enough to push the front to the srn border, but it could linger
nearby. That would lead to isold SHRA/TSRA into mid-week. So we
can`t quite shake 20-30 PoPs for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and storms will come to an end late this evening across
much of the airspace and skies may briefly clear our before fog
and low clouds develop across much of the region. A cluster of
storms may affect JST and possible AOO thru about 14/06Z. IFR
conditions appear most likely at BFD, JST, UNV, and LNS, though
all sites may see IFR cigs/visby at some point tonight. Fog and
low clouds will gradually dissipate after sunrise and VFR
conditions will return by 15Z.

Outlook...

Thu...Lingering showers/and a few PM storms possible across the
southern airspace.

Fri...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

Sat...Mainly VFR.

Sun...Mainly VFR, but chance of a shower or storm north late.

Mon...Chance of a shower early, then clearing.

&&

.CLIMATE...
It`s been a very dry period over the last 2 weeks or so. Here
are the precipitation totals and rankings for the first 12 days
of August (month to date):

MDT: T (2nd driest); last measurable rain 7/31
IPT: 0.00" (driest); last measurable rain 7/30
AOO: 0.01" (2nd driest); last measurable rain 8/6
BFD: 0.09" (T3rd driest); last measurable rain 8/6
STC: T (tied-driest); last measurable rain 7/28

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/Bowen
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Gartner/Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl