139
FXUS61 KCTP 212000
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
300 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Dry conditions prevail this weekend with high pressure building in
  and temperatures trending up.
* A couple fast-moving and moisture-poor systems could bring some
  fleeting rain or snow showers during the last week in February.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The air has cleared of flurries out our window high above Happy
Valley. The flurries over the wrn mtns should continue to
diminish this evening. They are pesky with moisture still
flowing in from the NW and just the right temp profile in the
clouds to keep them going. Latest sat images show the ice
appearing over wrn LE under the big area of clearing moving in
from MI/wrn OH. Expect the upslope flow to continue, though, so
the clouds may not go away by morning for the NW. Elsewhere
clearing will help the temps get into the teens everywhere. The
wind only drops off late tonight in the SE half of the area. So,
the temps may stay up in the 20s for much of the night there
before dipping into the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
I got the quiet part of the forecast. High pressure and
subsidence rule for a couple of days as the center of the high
settles to our south and blocks off all Gulf moisture. A couple
of nrn stream short wave troughs pass through during the
weekend, but it will remain dry with little moisture available
and the wind won`t veer enough to bring lake effect into the
CWA. Maxes rise 5-10F on Sat vs Fri, and another 3-5F for Sun
aftn. Mins stay mainly in the 20s then both Sat and Sun nights.
Expect the skies to not be clear for too long during any stretch
of the short term period due to the repeated shots of lift and
meager moisture aloft as those troughs pass.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure stationed to the north of central Pennsylvania on
Monday had recently kept mentions of precipitation; however,
drier air and slightly further north progression in model
guidance has nixed precipitation mentions on Monday. If any
precipitation is to make way into central Pennsylvania, it would
be limited to the northern tier in the form of a rain/snow mix
to rain and any accumulations would be light. Slightly better
chance of precipitation comes on Tuesday with a shortwave
bringing enhanced lift with slightly better (but still not
optimal) moisture, thus have kept chances on Tuesday. Mild
temperatures for the end of February are expected on Tuesday,
which will promote mainly rain showers; however, model guidance
(and soundings) have outlined some potential for wet snow
especially early Tuesday morning and Tuesday evening. Dry
conditions are expected to prevail early Wednesday morning and
last through much of the day as the best forcing/moisture moves
further away from the forecast area.

Latest model guidance continues to outline potential for a
larger storm system impacting the region in the Thursday/Friday
timeframe with the potential for rain and snow, and potentially
even a wintry mix (although confidence remains too low at this
time to mention anything outside of rain/snow) across portions
of the area. Rain at onset Thursday seems to be very plausible
with the transition into a wintry mix coming Thursday evening
into Friday. Timing/confidence on measurable precipitation
remains fairly close to previous forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering snow showers across the western half of the airspace,
mainly influencing conditions at BFD/JST as of 18Z Friday
observations. Recent observations also outline -SHSN at UNV/AOO;
however, drier air in the lower levels observed by dew point
depressions have limited visibility/ceiling restrictions with
VFR continuing to prevail. At IPT/MDT/LNS, current conditions
prevail at VFR with high (~80-90%) confidence in VFR conditions
prevailing through 18Z Saturday, with breezy winds being the
main concern throughout the TAF period, mainly between 18Z-23Z
Friday.

Light snow is expected to continue to bring restrictions at BFD
(~90-100% confidence) and JST (~40-50%) confidence through 22Z
Friday, with some signals in lower ceilings continuing at BFD
in recent HREF/RAP model guidance. These trends are also fairly
well-resolved in GLAMP guidance, while GLAMP guidance shows
slightly more disagreement at JST, thus lower confidence in the
TAF at JST. There will also be some potential at UNV to have
periods of MVFR ceilings between 18-22Z; however, this remains a
lower probability solution. Model soundings continue to outline
modest saturation in the lower levels at BFD, thus moderate-to-
high (~50-70%) confidence in MVFR ceilings continuing through
18Z Saturday with guidance starting to outline IFR/LIFR
conditions in the overnight period. High confidence in IFR
conditions at BFD between 06-12Z Saturday, with increasing
signals of LIFR in the 10-12Z timeframe. At JST, MVFR continues
to be the main restriction expected this evening with IFR
conditions outlined in a combination of GLAMP/HREF guidance
between 03-10Z Saturday. Low confidence on ceilings scattering
out after sunrise, so have went against guidance and kept lower
ceilings given no pronounced drier air/stronger winds to help
mix out ceilings.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR/no sig wx.

Mon...Rain and snow showers developing in the afternoon NW.

Tue...Rain and snow showers continue and become area wide.

Wed...VFR/no sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...NPB