902
FXUS61 KCTP 160101
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
801 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening; a
  strong/severe storm possible along/west of US-219
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow bands Sunday into
  Monday; snowy road conditions/hazardous travel possible
* Light rain/snow possible Tuesday followed by a slightly milder
  trend through the middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Elevated convection associated with a warm front has produced a
few lightning strikes across northeastern zones, but has cleared
the CWA as of 545 PM. For the next couple hours we`ll likely see
a bit of a lull in the action, before the next round of
showers/thundershowers moves in from the northwest by 9pm-12am,
just ahead of the cold front. Winds a few thousand feet above
the ground will increase to the 45-50 knot range by the time the
cold front enters northwest PA, so there will be at least some
potential for the convection to mix a few strong to marginally
severe wind gusts down to the surface. By that time, the sfc
stable layer which has prevented stronger winds from mixing down
with earlier convection will have eroded across our western
zones. SPC has maintained the marginal risk for severe weather
over far western portions of the CWA to highlight this
potential. The threat for severe weather will decrease with
eastward extent as the line of storms encounters more of the
residual stable layer east of US-219.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Much colder air will move into Central PA on Sunday behind the
departing cold front and will allow for lingering showers over
northwest PA to mix with and eventually change over to snow
during the morning. Lake effect snow becomes more likely
downwind of Lake Erie during the afternoon as colder air aloft
moves over the lakes and a Lake Huron connection develops
(perhaps even a connection back to Lake Superior). There is
still uncertainty regarding the placement of the heaviest snow
bands, but the low- level flow favors Warren and McKean counties
for the heaviest snowfall. Those areas may see as much as 3 to
6 inches of snow or more through Monday, with lesser amounts
expected as you move south and east. Much of the high res
guidance suggests the potential for lake effect bands/squalls to
reach as far south and east as I-80 and I-99 and even into the
Lower Susq Valley, which may lead to rapidly changing travel
conditions along those roadways.

A tight pressure gradient behind the departing system will also
support strong wind gusts over much of the area in the 30 to 45
mph range on Sunday. Confidence continues to increase in wind
gusts exceeding 45 mph over the Laurel Highlands and we have
issued a Wind Advisory for Cambria, Somerset, Bedford, and Blair
counties. The Wind Advisory may need to be expanded to include
more of central PA, given NW winds of 40-50 kts at the top of
the mixed layer during the diurnal max on Sunday. Winds remain
gusty Sunday night and Monday, but should stay below advisory
strength.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Snow showers and gusty winds gradually taper off Monday night as
high pressure briefly builds into the region. Models show the
next system for early next week ejecting out of the central
Plains (NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact southern stream
shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward through the Ohio
Valley toward the DelmarVA. Ensembles continue to show two
possible solutions for this system with around half of the
members keeping the bulk of the precip to our south, while the
other half shows a more northward track for this system. This
second solution would bring the potential for mixed precip to
the region.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip odds
trend higher into the end of next week. Most guidance shows this
system tracking to our west, which would result in an all rain
scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An approaching cold front will bring periods of rain to the
region tonight. Thunder is possible at BFD and JST, but recent
trends indicate the risk is waning with eastward extent. Ahead
of the front, strong winds aloft and light winds at the surface
will bring low level wind shear at all airfields. MVFR
conditions are likely as showers move through everywhere except
MDT and LNS.

After the cold front moves through tonight, northwest winds will
ramp up with frequent gusts of 20 to 30 kts overnight. Gusts
will strengthen further on Sunday, with 40kt gusts possible at
all airfields in the afternoon. As cooler and drier air moves in
behind the front, conditions will return to VFR at AOO, UNV, and
IPT while JST and BFD maintain restrictions.

Lake effect snow showers will develop as early as daybreak
Sunday across northwest PA and continue through much of the day.
IFR conditions are likely for some portion of the day on Sunday
at KBFD as snow showers will inevitably affect the airfield.
There remains some uncertainty with the duration of snow showers
and whether they`ll set up directly over the airfield or
oscillate to one side or other. In a worst case scenario, IFR or
LIFR visibility will prevail for much of the day, whereas a more
optimistic scenario would lead to longer periods with little or
no visibility restrictions.

Outlook...

Sun-Mon...SHSN NW. Windy. VFR conditions SE.

Tue...SHRA/SN possible early, otherwise dry.

Wed-Thu...Chance of a shower, but overall mainly dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night
for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night
for PAZ024-025-033-034.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Bauco
NEAR TERM...Colbert/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Colbert/Bauco
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco
AVIATION...Banghoff