315
FXUS61 KCTP 201007
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
607 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build southeast
  toward the Commonwealth today bringing cooler and dry weather
  for today through Monday morning.

* Another batch of showers will move across the region Monday
  afternoon and night, precede another warm front/cold front
  combo as the associated center of low pressure heads Northeast
  across the Upper Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The cold front that brought scattered, fast moving strong to
severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening (mainly over
the Northern Mountains and Southern Tier of PA), was pushing
south into Virginia early this Eastern Sunday.

Variable amounts of mid and high level clouds will continue to
stream northeast from the Ohio Valley through the day today as
much drier low level air advects SE into the state.

Northwest winds will be in the 8 to 15 mph range today with the
higher values occurring over, and to the east of the Susquehanna
Valley where a slightly tighter llvl p-gradient exists.

Max temps this afternoon will be near normal (in the upper 50s
to low 60s) across the Northern Mountains and about 4 to 8
degrees above normal (upper 60s to around 70) over Southern PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clouds thicken up and their bases lower late tonight into Monday
morning as a north/south llvl ridge axis slides to Eastern PA
before daybreak and near sfc winds become southeasterly, while
mean winds in the 850 to 700 mb layer become south-southwesterly
and freshen to above 30 kts across the Western third of PA.

This will lead to a rather mild night across the SW half of the
CWA with mins in the low to mid 50s. In contrast, across the
northeast corner of our CWA will be near 40F.

Warm front-cold front pair will arrive just a few hours apart
on Monday. Several showers and a few thunderstorms will affect
the area, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Spring is springing with no mentions of snow in the long term
fcst. This is thanks to long-wave ridging overhead and a
prolonged stretch of above average temperatures. One weather system
pushes through the region on Mon/Mon night bringing only light
rainfall amounts to the region (generally less than a quarter of
an inch). Then, we get a several day stretch of dry and mild
weather. 8H temps in the double digits above zero will mean
mild and even warm temps for most of the period. Another system
moves thru late in the period on Friday and Friday night,
bringing another chance for rain and perhaps some storms.

Highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s will be
trend. Mins should stay above freezing in all of Central PA
thru the period, with many nights only dipping into the m50s in
the S. Portions of northern PA who have not quite seen
grass/flowers takeoff yet should see a burst of green over the
next week or two.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Residual low level moisture in the wake of last evening`s cold
front will produce MVFR cigs across the Laurel Highlands during
the pre-dawn hours, while a downsloping northwest flow yields
mainly VFR conditions elsewhere. Model soundings then support
widespread VFR conditions after 11Z, as drier air arrives.

Northwest winds could gust over 20kts at times this morning,
especially over the Susq Valley, then diminishing winds and
widespread VFR conditions are anticipated this afternoon and
evening, as high pressure builds into the region from the Grt
Lks.

Outlook...

Mon...A brief shower/vis reduction possible W Mtns.

Tue...Early AM low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns.

Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Fitzgerald