477
FXUS61 KCTP 070324
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1124 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Several rounds of mainly afternoon and early evening showers
  and scattered thunderstorms will bring the risk for localized
  severe wind gusts and flash flooding this weekend, especially
  on Sunday, with the focus shifting mainly to the southern
  half of the state.

* Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
  additional rounds of showers and temperatures near to
  slightly below the seasonal averages.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Any remaining convection, which is already limited in coverage
late this evening, will continue to slide slowly to the SE
through the night. The loss of diurnal forcing should preclude
any risk for svr wx and heavy rainfall rates/flooding overnight.

The front will inch southeastward thru the night, and be
somewhere between UNV and MDT at sunrise Sat.

Mins tonight in the U50s-M60s thanks to the high dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to drift
to the SE Sat and limit deeper moisture and the threat of
strong convection to the SE part of the CWA on Sat.

Lighter SHRA will be possible back into AOO- UNV- IPT, but not
much farther NW than that line.

Some slightly drier air behind the front will not make any
progress SE on Sat, but will continue to dry out (L50s) over the
NW in the aftn.

Muggy air will The 60+F dewpoints will hang on until Sat night
in the SE half of the CWA. Sat night looks mainly dry, but
SHRA/TSRA move back in from the SW late in the night. Dewpoints
get into the L50s N and U50s S. That should be a refreshing but
brief change. Wind continues to veer from N-E-S Sat night-Sun-
Sun night bringing the mugginess back to the region. The risk
for svr wx returns to all but perhaps the far nrn tier on
Sunday, but could be limited by any clouds and precip in the
morning. PoPs in the categorical range are a solid bet. The
clouds/precip Sun should keep maxes a couple degs F lower than
Sat. While the E may be near normal, the SW (Laurels) may be
7-8F cooler than normal Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next period of dry weather will be mid-late week.
Temperatures close to normal for most of next week.

Earlier discussion below.

Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
rounds of showers likely as an amplified upper trough across the
Central US and Ohio Valley shears NE across the Glakes Region by
the middle of the week.

SFC and Upper level ridging over head and to our west will bring
drier conditions for much of the period Wednesday through early
Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z/11pm EDT Update: Little change this cycle outside of IPT
where precipitation has already cleared the airfield, allowing
for lower ceilings and visibility to occur. Given IFR conditions
are already into the airfield, higher confidence in LIFR
conditions with IFR conditions prevailing through much of the
overnight period.

Previous Discussion, issued 8:15 PM EDT (06/06/2025):
Current radar outlines a cluster of showers west of IPT/north of
UNV slowly, but surely, dropping southeast this evening.
Scattered showers also popping along a nearly stationary
boundary along BFD, which will bring moderate confidence in
vicinity showers over the next couple of hours, with the bulk of
model guidance indicating showers prevailing at BFD in between
00-02Z Saturday. Given current radar trends, next in line for
any precipitation mentions will likely be UNV; however, given
decreasing trends on radar and the slow nature of movement, have
nixed any mentions throughout much of the TAF period.

Scattered showers will remain possible overnight; however,
coverage is expected to decrease across much of the area, with
the bulk of model guidance indicating lower coverage across NW
PA (BFD) after 06Z Sat. This decreasing coverage promotes
removing VCSH mentions overnight, as the bulk of shower coverage
is likely straying away from central Pennsylvania airfields. In
terms of sensible weather overnight, recent RAP model soundings
favor patchy fog formation for areas where heavy rainfall
occurred today, which covers all airfields outside of
AOO/UNV/MDT. Model guidance remains split, but IFR-to-LIFR
conditions appear most likely (~70-80%) at this time. At
UNV/MDT, model soundings do indicate low-level moisture
remaining enough to promote some lower ceilings for a brief
period overnight.

Recent HREF/GLAMP guidance decrease precipitation mentions
after 12Z Saturday for many airfields, so have decided to take a
more targeted approach with VCSH/SHRA mentions given the
scattered nature. Highest potential (~60-80%) probabilities
outline favored upslope areas (JST/AOO) and SE PA (MDT/LNS) for
precipitation with much lower confidence at other airfields.

Outlook...

Sun...Next round of showers/t-storms spreads from SW
to NE into Sunday night.

Mon-Tue...Unsettled pattern continues with additional rounds of
showers and t-storms.

Wed...Scattered PM showers/storms; otherwise, VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Gartner
AVIATION...NPB