719
FXUS61 KCTP 021543
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1143 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely for
  today through Friday, with a high confidence of dry weather
  and seasonable temperatures on Independence Day
* Trending warmer and more humid this weekend; unsettled pattern
  returns by Sunday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Near to slightly below normal PWAT air with abundant sunshine
over the bulk of the CWA will give us a welcome break from the
humid and rainy conditions of the past several days.

Abundant sunshine with a spattering of fair weather cu will be
found across much of the region, with the NW edge of a layer of
higher clouds exiting the Lower Susq Valley this afternoon.

The drier air won`t be all that much drier over the SE with
Tds still holding in the upper 60s to low 70s (F).

Max temps this afternoon will vary from the upper 70s across the
higher terrain of the north and west, to the mid and upper 80s
respectively in the central and southern valleys, which are
very near seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly clear sky conditions are expected for most of the night,
until the approach of a weak cold front from the N. Weak
ridging over the area should allow for light wind and some fog.
The fog should not be as widespread as this (Wed) AM. The clouds
coming in with the front will try to make a shower around or
just before sunrise over the NW. Short wave trough aloft and a
jet max of 70+KTs will help drive some taller showers and
support a MRGL risk of severe wx. Deep layer shear will be
40-60KTs, with the higher values across the NE. The cells should
be moving along and PWATs much nearer to normal than of late
(1-1.25"). So, not expecting any flooding issues. Did add in a
20 PoP to the SE after 00Z, but those SHRA/TSRA should dwindle
quickly after sunset and the passage of the good forcing in the
early evening. One more chance for fog (only in the valleys of
the nrn mtns) Fri AM.

Prev...
We continue to have high confidence/conviction in a really nice
Independence Day with a near zero chance for rain and great
viewing for fireworks. The wind will be pretty light, if not
calm, at 8-9PM, and may keep the smoke around with little
evacuation. Min temps Friday night will be quite comfortable in
the low 50s to low 60s.

Humidity levels start to creep upward to start the first
weekend of July; however it will remain dry with unsettled
weather expected to return Sunday into early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure approaching the Great Lakes by Sunday morning will
bring about increasing chances for precipitation for the second
half of the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect a break from showers and storms today. The airmass will
dry out significantly across most of the state with excellent
vsby and sct-bkn fair weather cu.

Light wind, moist ground and significant radiational cooling of
the surface will lead to areas of 1/2SM vsbys in the deeper
stream/river valleys of the Central and North for 2-4 hour early
Thursday, possibly impacting the airfields of KAOO, KUNV KIPT
and KBFD.

For Thursday, a narrow wedge of moisture moves back into the
state from the west ahead of a Canadian airmass/cold frontal
boundary. There`s some chance of a gusty storm with brief heavy
rain (Especially across the North-Central Mountains and Mid
Susquehanna Valley), but any of these would not last long in
any one spot, plus that is beyond the time range of the 12Z TAF
package.

Outlook...

Thu...Primarily VFR; stray PM shower/t-storm possible.

Fri-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Banghoff/NPB
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin