705
FXUS61 KCTP 130927
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
527 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes to previous forecast

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of rain today with a marginal thunderstorm wind
threat precedes unseasonably cool/very chilly Thursday

2) Significant summerlike weekend warmup ramps into early next
week with the highest temperatures of the year so far

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of rain today with a marginal
thunderstorm wind threat precedes unseasonably cool/very chilly
Thursday

A seasonably strong upper level trough will dig through the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley today and develop into a closed low over
the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England region before
ejecting to the northeast on Friday. The associated sfc low
moving east from Lower Michigan toward northern New York will
drag a trailing cold front across the Alleghenies this afternoon
and evening. Periods of rain/showers and scattered thunderstorms
are expected along and ahead of the cold front. The pre-frontal
convective environment will feature weak to conditional
instability on 50-55F dewpoints, sufficient (30-40kt) deep layer
shear, and steepening low to mid level lapse rates to support a
marginal wind threat. The HREF/REFS show the primary frontal
band exiting the eastern portion of the CWA after 14/03Z.

Scattered showers linger into Thursday beneath the upper low
which will be the coldest day of the week. Max temps will be
unseasonably cool and quite chilly for mid May with highs in the
45-60F range or 10 to 20 degrees below the historical average
(frequent 20-25 mph wind gusts will only add to the chill).

Rainfall amounts will remain on the light side with fcst QPF
generally <0.25 inch through Thursday night. This won`t even
put a dent in the moderate/D1 to severe/D2 drought conditions
across far south central PA.

Conditions will dry out on Friday with daytime highs rebounding
+10-20 degrees vs. Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant summerlike weekend warmup ramps into
early next week with the highest temperatures of the year

After a cool start to May, guidance continues to signal a
significant warmup on the horizon for this weekend into early
next week. This large scale pattern shift should deliver a
rather sudden and perhaps long-awaited midsummer warm surge with
max temps projected to reach well into the 80s and even lower
90s. Daily record highs may be challenged based on the current
fcst Monday and Tuesday.

There may be some potential heatrisk considerations looming for
early next week. This stems not only with the forecast high
temperatures, but also from an acclimation perspective
especially after a rather cool stretch of weather during the
first half of May. Probabilistic heat risk shows >50% odds for
moderate or higher across south central PA with fcst heat index
values starting to exceed 95F Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As expected, the showers mainly stayed across the northwest
(BFD) sections of PA overnight.

Expect the activity to pick up some speed just after sunrise
here. Back edge of the showers just east of CLE and moving
along, but expect the back edge to slow down some later
today.

More information below.

Low pressure over MI will result in a few showers over the
northwest prior to 12Z today.

Most of the showers will be later today, as the warm and cold
fronts move into our area. There could be a thunderstorm, mainly
across the west. Left thunder out of the east for now.

The cold front will move east of the area later today, followed
by a windy and cold day on Thursday. As the upper level low
drops to the south on Thursday, moisture will wrap around the
low. This will result in clouds and showers across the region,
especially across the mountains.

Conditions will improve later on Friday, as the low moves away
from the area.

Borderline for LLWS early today, thus removed it.
CTPWRKTAF
Outlook...

Thu...Lingering clouds and showers with restrictions north/west
and improvement southeast.

Fri...VFR likely.

Sat and Sun...VFR is likely much of the time, although brief
restrictions are possible with isolated afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms.CTPWRKTAF

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temperature of 25 degrees was tied (1963) at
Bradford yesterday.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Martin/Lambrech
CLIMATE...Steinbugl