754
FXUS61 KCTP 030830
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
430 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure will bring abundant sunshine, lower humidity,
  and seasonable temperatures through Tuesday.
* Temperatures gradually increase into next week with a small
  uptick in humidity.
* Isolated to scattered showers/storms return to central PA by
  midweek, but dry conditions persist for many.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Nighttime microphysics shows fog in many of the river valleys
around Central, and the spatial extent of fog is higher this
morning than it was on Saturday morning. Near ideal radiational
cooling (light winds, clear skies) have led to morning lows well
down into the 40s (maybe even some isolated upper 30s) in our
normally chillier valley locales across northern PA.

Sunday will be another spectacular day for early August
standards. You may be hard to pressed to find a cloud in the sky
for much of the day today, though some wildfire smoke aloft
could bring a milky hue to an otherwise blue sky. Highs this
afternoon will tick up a few degrees compared to Saturday,
generally within a few degrees of 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fine summer weather will continue starting off the work week,
as a surface ridge stays anchored over the northeastern and Mid-
Atlantic states. This adds up to more rain-free weather, with
sunny skies by day, and mainly clear conditions at night.

Monday and Tuesday will continue the slight warming trend thanks
to return southwest flow as high pressure moves off the east
coast. That will correspond to highs in the 80s during the day
and lows from 55 to 65F. Daybreak fog is a good bet each morning
in teh deepest river valleys.

Present indications are that humidity levels will stay at
reasonable levels, with most of the hot, muggy conditions
staying off to the south and west of the Commonwealth. Despite
the low humidity, wildfire smoke in the sky may result in the
sky being less blue than it otherwise would be.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Regarding the large-scale, upper level pattern, general de-
amplification is expected with time next week, basically
reverting back to an expansive summertime upper ridge across the
southern CONUS, with a more progressive zonal type pattern near
the U.S., Canadian border.

Although, in time, the above described pattern may bring heat,
humidity, and more frequent convection back into PA, it looks
like our mostly rain-free weather could well last through the
latter part of next week, as an expansive surface high pressure
ridge only slowly nudges to the east.

Temperatures look seasonable for early August, with highs mostly
in the 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds generally around 3-5kts are progged by the bulk of model
guidance to trend calm overnight, with JST/AOO most likely to
retain a light breeze overnight. VFR conditions are virtually
certain ~100% confidence) through 00Z Monday at all airfields
outside of IPT/BFD. Valley fog formation across the northern
tier of Pennsylvania will bring about an outside chance of
restrictions at IPT (< 10% probability) with a low chance of
restrictions (~20-30%) at BFD in the 09Z-11Z timeframe. This TAF
cycle has went ahead an included MVFR restrictions for a brief
period at BFD, going off of persistence based of yesterday
evening`s observations under a similar synoptic set-up. After
12Z Sunday, virtually certain (~100% confidence) in VFR
conditions at the airfields with winds generally below 10kts.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...Dry with VFR conditions.

Wed-Thu...Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
possible, but for the most part, VFR continues.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The low temperature of 41 degrees in Bradford on Saturday
morning tied the previous record set in 1985.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...Banghoff