317
FXUS61 KCTP 140814
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
314 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure makes a fair day with normal temps.
* Clouds increase with periods of rain Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night; a gusty thunderstorm is possible
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow showers Sunday into
  Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLouds over the NE should slide E around sunrise. Some fog in
the valleys of the NW will linger til 9 AM. Axis of high
pressure should be over the CWA today, and warm advection should
start later in the day. Fair wx results. A streak of mid-high
clouds will dim the sun, but max temps won`t be far from
normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Warmer air flows in aloft tonight Laurels may not drop below
40F. It stays pretty cloudy and the upslope into the Laurels
may cause a little drizzle there. A little fog may form again in
the NW, but clouds may thwart it. Lift increases through the
morning and early afternoon, bringing rain/showers into the wrn
mtns. NAM makes some instability over the west, too, mainly
after 00Z. SPC has placed the far W into a MRGL risk of svr for
late Sat-Sat night. Temps rise 10F above Friday`s numbers. 55KT
LLJet pushes in from the W as a good short wave trough drops
across the Upper Great Lakes. CFRONT pushes through in the
night, wind goes NW and temps get cold enough to turn lake
effect rain showers to a mix or straight up snow by morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday into Monday period looks quite windy and colder with
brisk and blustery NW flow. Max gusts via NBM are currently in
the 30-40 mph range and could see a wind advisory being needed
in the coming days. The typical cold season post-frontal
pattern transition will be punctuated by a ramp up of
lake effect snow showers with potential for snow accumulation
in the favored snowbelts, ridgetops and summits along the
Allegheny Plateau.

Models show the next system for early next week ejecting out of
the central Plains (NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact
southern stream shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward
through the Ohio Valley toward the DelmarVA. Ensemble data keeps
the bulk of precip and max POPs with this system along and
south of the MD line centered on next Tuesday. Any shifts in the
track or speed/timing could introduce some ptype issues on the
northern edge of the precip. That said, this system could also
skirt by far enough to the south and not bring any precip.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip
odds trend higher into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC and satellite observations indicate clear/clearing skies as
high pressure begins to build into the airspace from the
southwest. VFR conditions are expected overnight for all TAF
sites, but BFD. BFD is running an MVFR ceiling and reporting UP
in recent SFC ob from residual lake effect. Winds there remain
moderate and gusty from the northwest and guidance suggests it
will be a few more hours until wind speeds diminish.

Elsewhere, winds will continue to diminish into the late
evening/overnight. There is low potential for LLWS this evening
as surface wind gusts drop off, but model soundings from the RAP
and HRRR suggest that the strongest winds will remain above
2000 feet.

Friday will feature VFR conditions with lighter winds than we
have seen the past few days.

Outlook...

Sat...Afternoon SHRA.

Sun...SHRA/SN esp NW half. IFR poss. Breezy.

Mon...Isold/SCT SHSN NW. Breezy.

Tue...SHRA/SN possible early, transitioning to RA. Restrictions
possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Gartner/Bauco