428
FXUS61 KCTP 290156
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
856 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Lake effect snow showers will start to wane this evening, but
  may not go away over the northern tier until close to sunrise.
* Brief periods of snow (Northern PA) and a wintry mix (Southern
  PA) are expected late Saturday Night and Sunday with light
  accumulations possible
* A more significant/widespread winter storm is possible on
  Tuesday
* Large scale pattern supports cold conditions into at least the
  first weekend in December

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SPS issued earlier until Midnight for portions of south central
PA, given some potential for snow showers, tempertures below
freezing, gusty winds and wet roads. Potential for squalls
mainly limited now to the far north, where heavy bands of snow
showers extend well inland from the lakes as of mid evening.

Temperatures came back up toward the low 30s earlier this
evening at the office, but are now edging back down. A deep
storm over eastern Canada will keep winds on the gusty side.
Current winter weather products go to 06Z, might need to extend
further out in time if bands hold together.

Earlier discussion below.

The closed low over QUE and it`s surrounding trough will be
sliding to the east tonight. The 1000-850 mean flow won`t change
much at all overnight, though, so the exit of LES SNSH is
likely to be a little later than we`d like. They may last all
night across the nrn tier. Model soundings for BFD keep the
cloud depth at least 5kft with the middle to top of the cloud in
the DGZ until nearly sunrise. So, our current expiration time
on the headlines up north (06Z) may need to be adjusted. On the
other hand, though, the inversion is lowering and the dewpoints
aren`t rising, so the SHSN may not be as intense as necessary to
warrant keeping the headlines going. So, for now, we`ll keep
the exp time as is.

The wind and gusts do gradually diminish thru the night as high
pressure starts to move in from the SW. Temps may dip close to
20F in lots of places by morning. The bigger urban areas will be
more in the m20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday will be the best day we will have for a while. Most
of the day should be dry. Adjusted the POPS for late Saturday
at the leading edge of the pcpn, to fit better with others.
Overall a minor change in the northwest corner of our area.

Earlier discussion below.

The last vestiges of the lake effect clouds and any flurries
should end early in the morning Sat. The upslope low deck in
the west will start to diminish, but high and mid clouds close
up any breaks of sun in the afternoon. The sun in the
southeastern half of the CWA will last thru a good part of the
day. Lift ahead of the next batch of precip will not hold precip
until after dark Sat evening, and perhaps not until close to
midnight, in the NW. The low center is well to our N and the fast
SW flow will pull the precip across the region quickly. The
majority of models and the meso ensembles all make very little
precip for the SE third of the CWA on Sunday. What does manage
to hit the ground there would likely be a mix in the morning or
plain rain from late AM on as temps warm up thru the day. Light
snow will be the predominant precip type for the northern mtns.
The best QPF is in the NW, too. The first swipe at snow totals
there could be near 3 inches in our NW 5-6 counties, and near 2"
in the NE. But, that would be the worst of it as the air is very
dry with little moisture coming in from the Gulf. Very little
signal for freezing rain that lasts more than an hour, but it is
worth mentioning inside the broader collection of "wintry mix."

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Precipitation will quickly taper off from west to east late
Sunday evening into early Monday, so most of Monday should be
dry.

Complex low pressure over the southeast states on Tuesday will
quickly race to the northeast. This may limit the pcpn some,
but often we get the snow more from the inverted trough.

Expect things to taper off rather fast by early Wed.

A fair amount of model spread as one gets toward next weekend,
other than to say, no real mild spells in store for the area
anytime soon.

Earlier discussion below.

Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as cold
air in the middle of the country sets up a strong baroclinic
zone over the eastern US. High pressure in the Plains should
keep cold air in place on the northern side of the precipitation
shield from a wave of low pressure progged to move out of the
Gulf. This system should move northeast around the base of the
aforementioned high pressure system, bringing increasing
moisture to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday next week.
It remains too early pin down details of timing, intensity, and
precipitation type delineation, the first widespread plowable
snowfall of the season is possible.

System at this time looks to be somewhat progressive with the
lack of a strong area of high pressure to slow the advance of
the system which will be a limiting factor in eventual snowfall
totals across the area. Location of the low-pressure system
still also have impact on where a transition zone from freezing
precipitation to rainfall will be observed across the area and
intensity of precipitation. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+
continue to outline low-end probabilities, thus no thoughts of
any mentions outside of the HWO. Continue to monitor the
forecast in the days ahead, especially if you have plans to
travel.

High pressure will regain control of our weather in the wake of
the aforementioned system for the middle to end of next week.
Prevailing upper troughing brings high confidence in continued
below normal temperatures and a chilly start to December.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue across the northern tier
of Pennsylvania overnight, with bands shifting closer to BFD in
the near-term. Widespread long-duration restrictions are not
expected at this time based on NBM/HREF/GLAMP guidance;
however, cannot rule out brief instances of MVFR-to-IFR
conditions at BFD in snow showers. Restrictions for the first
half of the overnight will be more based on visibilities before
lower ceilings begin to push towards longer duration of MVFR
conditions after 04-06Z Saturday. Low ceilings will also be
possible based on a combination of GLAMP/HREF model guidance at
JST between 03Z and 09Z Saturday. Model guidance keeps low
ceilings in at BFD through ~15-18Z Saturday, with clearing
elsewhere allowing for gradual improvement towards VFR after 12Z
Saturday.

Northwest winds will continue to gust 25-30 knots area wide
throughout the near-term, with winds beginning to taper off
closer between 06Z across the northwest (BFD) and 10Z across the
northeast (IPT). Some model uncertainty with respect to timing
does exist; however, expect winds to taper off over a three to
four hour period across all terminals of central Pennsylvania.

Outlook...

Sun...Light rain/wintry mix developing from west to east;
restrictions possible. Precip may turn to rain across the south
during the day.

Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely early on. MVFR likely. IFR
possible.

Tue...Snow possible, before a possible mix later in the day
across the south. Restrictions possible.

Wed...Trending drier, lingering snow across NW PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for
PAZ004>006.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ010-011-
037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Banghoff/Martin
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Martin
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Martin
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Martin/NPB
AVIATION...NPB