966
FXUS61 KCTP 031830
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
230 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure will bring abundant sunshine, lower humidity,
  and seasonable temperatures through Wednesday.
* Temperatures gradually increase with a uptick in humidity by
  next Sunday.
* Isolated to scattered showers/storms return to central PA by
  midweek, but dry conditions will persist across most of the
  area this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure overhead will keep clear skies, light winds,
and low PW values in place into Tuesday. Main change was to
lower min temperatures tonight and Monday night in line with
other offices such as BUF. Some readings well down in the 40s
earlier this morning. A very thin layer in smoke over the area
this afternoon, but hardly any type of clouds. A big change
from the heavy rain pattern of recent times.

Some fog late tonight, but like last night, mainly very limited
and more like ground and some river valley fog.

For Monday, looking at a large rise in temperature from morning
to late aft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As noted above, conditions will remain favorable for another
cool night Monday night, so I did edge low temperatures down
a bit Monday night.

Tuesday will be simiar to Monday, another dry day, as the high
pressure system remains over the region.

There is a small chance of a shower or perhaps a storm across
the southwestern sections of central PA on Wednesday, but most
of the region should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term will feature a more typical late summer pattern
with a ridge aloft over the southeast U.S. and a more zonal flow
across the Great Lakes and points north.

Wednesday night a wekness in the upper flow between the
aforementioned southeast ridge and ridging over the southwest
and western U.S. will at least introduce the chance for
isolated showers generally over south central PA. However,
surface high pressure may help keep the dry pattern going with
around (20%) chances for precip into Thursday morning.

The remainder of the extended looks to feature a slow increase
in humidity and temperatures with any organized precipitation on
the low chance side at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not a lot of change for the 18Z TAF package.

High pressure should keep light winds and clear skies across
the region into Tuesday.

For tonight, I looked at the obs from last night, as well as the
current and expected dewpoints. While cooling will result in
temperatures falling to near the dewpoints, the dewpoints are
fcst to drop as well, and we have had a chance to dry out.
Thus not expecting much in the way of fog or low clouds.

I did add in some SCT low clds to the UNV TAF late tonight,
based on last night.

The next chance of rain for the region is not to later Wednesday
into late week.

Outlook...

Tue...Dry with VFR conditions.

Wed-Fri...Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
possible, but for the most part, VFR continues.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The low temperature of 41 degrees in Bradford on Saturday
morning tied the previous record set in 1985.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Tyburski
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Banghoff