222
FXUS61 KCTP 190545
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
145 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Seasonably cooler this week with peak summer heat and
  humidity in the rear view mirror
* Little to no rainfall expected through Friday; best rain
  chances on Wednesday and over the weekend
* Refreshing taste of Fall likely to arrive into the last week
  of August

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Strong high pressure drifting eastward across Ontario and
Quebec will continue to deliver pleasantly cooler and less
humid conditions overnight. Veering and increasingly moist llvl
flow to the east/southeast will maintain and even expand the
low stratus overnight. The upslope flow may even bring some
patchy drizzle and/or ridgetop fog to portions of south central
PA. Low temps will range from 50-55F in the northern tier to
60-65F across the south central ridge/valley region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low cloud signal prevails to the east of the Allegheny Front on
Tuesday with a spotty shower possible over south central PA.
The cloud cover (with some PM breaks of sun) will again hold
temps in the 70s over the majority of the fcst area.

Shortwave trough diving southeast from the Great Lakes and sfc
wave in the Ohio Valley will bring the "best" chance of rain (in
the next 3 days) on Wednesday -- although QPF output continues
to look rather limited. Low temps Wednesday night should tick
higher by a few degrees with more low clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Increasing confidence in a dry end to the week thanks to large
scale subsidence to the west of departing Hurricane Erin. Rising
heights into the weekend will promote a warming trend with highs
rebounding back into the lower 80s by Friday.

Longer range model and ensemble data continues to show a more
formidable upper trough digging into the Great Lakes and
amplifying this weekend over the Eastern U.S. Moisture
returning northward from the Gulf along the leading frontal
boundary should provide a focus for showers and storms with max
POPs Sat-Sun as it moves slowly eastward from the Appalachians
toward the Mid Atlantic coast.

Taste of Fall on the horizon for at least the first part of next
week as cooler/more refreshing air filters into the region from
Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Current MVFR conditions across the western terminals
(BFD/JST/AOO/UNV) are expected to continue overnight with low
clouds once again progged to expand by the bulk of model
guidance through 12Z. VFR ceilings appear the most probable in
the Susquehanna Valley; however, recent GLAMP and RAP model
guidance indicates increasing confidence in ceilings at LNS/MDT
approaching MVFR thresholds slightly after sunrise for a two-
three hour period. Given this trend in model guidance, coupled
with current satellite trends, have decided to push MVFR
ceilings towards these Susquehanna Valley in the 12-15Z
timeframe with moderate (~50%) confidence.

Low ceilings are still expected to be very slow to improve
Tuesday morning, with MVFR conditions expected through at least
18Z. Southeasterly winds will range from 5 to 10 knots during
the afternoon. High clouds will begin to increase after 00Z with
an approaching shortwave with recent GLAMP guidance indicating
some chances for rain showers at BFD. There remains lower
confidence this far out, thus have decided to keep mentions
limited to a PROB30 group. Lower ceilings are increasingly
probable after 03Z Tuesday and into the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wed...Chc of SHRA/TSRA areawide.

Thu...A few lingering showers possible.

Fri...VFR

Sat...SHRA/TSRA possible in the afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Gartner
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco/NPB