950
FXUS61 KCTP 221711
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
111 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Breezy and pleasant today with a mix of sun and clouds
* Trending warmer Wednesday and Thursday with no precipitation
* Rain returns Friday night into Saturday followed by dry
  weather on Sunday to close out the last weekend of April

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Narrow rain band along sfc cold front fell apart during the
predawn hours as it moved southeast from the I99/US220
corridor. The post frontal upslope llvl flow from the west will
maintain low clouds over the Allegheny mtns early this morning.
Downsloping should scour any lower clouds from the lower ridges
through the Susquehanna Valley, but the latest HREF data along
with current IR/vis satellite trends indicate that a fair amount
of mid to high clouds will continue to stream across the
southeastern half of the CWA for the rest of today.

On balance, a breezy and pleasant day ahead with low humidity
and max temps 60-75F -- which is near to above late April
climo. 24hr max temp changes will be the greatest in the western
and southeastern edges of the CWA where daytime highs will be
-10 and +10 degrees warmer vs. Monday. Max wind gusts will be in
the 20-25 mph range. Will need to watch minRH for downside risk
into the afternoon.

High pressure migrates over CPA tonight into early Wednesday
morning. We leaned a bit cooler vs. NBM particularly over the
northern tier (using dewpoints as a floor) where areas of frost
are most likely to form with min temps in the mid 30s. HREF
suggests this area is most likely to experience the best
radiational cooling as high clouds peel away around daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly sunny, warmer and rain free conditions expected into
late week. Highs trend to the upside day over day with
Thursday`s maxT fcst to climb 10 to 20 degrees above the
historical average into the 70-80F range. Nights will also be
relatively mild for this time of year with a series of higher
lows into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A surface low is currently progged to arrive Friday night as it
crosses over the Great Lakes region into northern Pennsylvania.
This low, and the associated trailing cold front, is expected
to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms into the region at
the beginning of this extended period. Southerly gulf flow will
bring a plume of moisture into the mid-atlantic region ahead of
this system, providing ample deep moisture for afternoon
convection on Friday. These showers will likely linger well into
Saturday, with scattered thunderstorms associated with day time
heating possible behind the cold front, before precipitation
chances diminish into Saturday night.

Conditions are expected to dry out on Sunday with upper level
ridging building in as the 500mb jet lifts to the northeast
along with the associated short wave from Saturday. Temperatures
will remain cooler on Sunday with highs expected to be in the
mid 60s for most of central Pennsylvania. A warm up will then
begin to occur Monday into Tuesday. 850mb temps will be well
above 10C Tuesday, allowing for above average temps towards the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Few to scattered clouds are present over the airspace this
afternoon. No flight restrictions are expected for the next 24
hours with mainly clear skies expected to continue overnight
tonight. Winds this afternoon will be gusting out of the west up
to 25kts. Tonight after sundown winds will gradually diminish
and become calm.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Showers developing during the afternoon with restrictions
possible.

Sat...Showers and maybe a thunderstorm.

Sun...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Bowen