083
FXUS61 KCTP 190304
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1004 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick moving system will bring rain to the area tonight,
along with some elevation-driven wet snow. Mainly dry weather
returns for Wednesday and Thursday before another system may
bring some rain showers to the area Friday into Saturday. A
return to mainly dry weather arrives for the second half of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
short wave trough moving through OH and into wrn PA now. The
precip is on time. Sleet being reported at quite a few places
locally. All light stuff, though. HRRR progs precip to be out
to the east by mid-morning...perhaps a little slower than going
fcst. The visby and cigs have not come down to the ridges quite
yet. But, we do anticipate a significant lowering to the clouds
and some drizzle/fzdz may form later tonight. Mentions of fog
and mixed precip are in the grids, and feel comfortable with
those mentions.

Prev...
A fast moving low pressure system will move through the area
later today through tonight. Some warm air advection
precipitation ahead of this system has moved into parts of the
Commonwealth, but with dry air in place, much of this has been
virga or simply just very light precipitation. At some of the
higher elevations, temperatures are just cold enough at the
onset to start as some light snow, but any accumulations will be
minimal due to marginal temperatures and the light intensity of
the snow.

Tonight will be somewhat of a tricky forecast due to potential
wet bulbing allowing for temperatures to be a few degrees cooler
wherever there is steadier precipitation. This could allow for
rain to transition back to snow during the steadier
precipitation, especially at the higher elevations over east-
central PA near/along the I80 to US220 corridors in the 06-12Z
window. Snow accum is most likely on non-paved and elevated
surfaces with minimum temps hovering near to slightly above the
freezing mark. Precipitation should end/shift to the east by
7AM/12Z Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will bring mainly dry weather to the area for
Wednesday and Thursday, but lingering low level moisture will
likely keep clouds in place for most of the Commonwealth. Clouds
will be present area-wide on Thursday, but Wednesday may
actually have some sunshine for areas north of I-80. Seasonable
temperatures are expected with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another system will slide eastward from the Ohio Valley Friday
into Saturday, but there is a bit of uncertainty regarding how
far north the precipitation gets. Some guidance, such as the 12Z
ECMWF keeps most of the precipitation south of the Commonwealth,
while other guidance, such as the 12Z GFS, as the axis of
steadier precipitation moving right through PA. The NBM captures
this uncertainty relatively well with chance PoPs across most of
the area. After this system moves through, drier weather arrives
for the second half of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure will track south of the airspace overnight
supporting widespread light rain. The steadiest rain will be
from KUNV southward. Over higher elevations, rain will be mixed
with wet snow, and brief periods of sleet and freezing rain.
Most TAF sites will maintain a low VFR cigs overnight, but BFD
and JST, currently MVFR, are expected to drop to IFR overnight.

After the rain/snow moves out of the area by Wednesday morning,
there will still likely be some IFR ceiling restrictions around
through most of the morning on Wednesday. Some gradual
improvement is expected by late Wednesday morning/early
afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Partial improvement in
conditions, but some lingering restrictions possible due to
lower clouds.

Friday through Saturday...Rain and associated restrictions
likely.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner