297
FXUS61 KCTP 122240
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
640 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A rain-free stretch with unseasonably warm temperatures will
continue across central Pennsylvania through the last week of
astronomical summer.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCCX really picking up the updrafts/thermals on top of the
ridges, likely thanks to the bugs floating around and being
lifted. The cumulus will die away as we lose the sun. Temps
should be a few degs milder overnight than last night and the
nights before. So, there will probably be a little less valley
fog, too. However, there is some moisture hanging in the east
(where the most cu are at 18Z), and some model solutions make
fog and/or low clouds east of the Susq R. Will just hint at that
possibility with higher cloud cover and mentions of patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Big bubble, no trouble. High pressure will dominate for many
days. Sunrise Sat should mix away any AM fog or low- ish clouds.
An upper level spin should yield clouds, but no precip for us
later Sat and early Sat night. Diurnal/sfc- based cumulus are
expected again, and mid & high clouds should spread across the
state from NW-SE through the day. Many places could have 100%
cloud cover in the aftn, but only 50-70% opacity. There is a
only a very tiny (5-10%) chance that a drip or two could reach
the ground over the nrn tier. The 1) recent very-dry spell we
are going through and 2) the usually-drier northern stream track
of the system make measurable rain a very low probability
outcome. Dry again Sunday with less cloud cover. Both Sat and
Sun will hold similar temps. Maxes should get well (10F) above
normals both days, reaching the upper 80s in Greencastle and mid
80s for most other cities south and east of State College.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long term pattern remain very similar to the short term: High
pressure ridge overhead with unusually warm temps. The
possibility of a storm system developing along the East Coast is
still there, but most recent guidance has it farther south (GA-
SC) and not moving too much farther N. So, the PoPs have been
limited to just 15% in the far SE for mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Next to no chance of fog tonight or Saturday night, as high
pressure remains over the area with dry air.

Main thing going for fog will be brief isolated rounds of
fog.

For Saturday and Sunday, looking at a few clouds now and
then. Winds will remain light.

Can`t recall such a long period of dry fall weather with
little fog, as the fall season normally features foggy
mornings.

Outlook...

Sun-Wed...VFR except for AM valley fog.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Our dry spell is getting pretty long. The MinRH for many days
will dip into the 40s with some 30s over the Alleghenies Sat and
Sunday. There should be a gradual climb in RH/dewpoints through
the coming week, but an extremely small chance of appreciable
rainfall through the next 7 (plus?) days. Leaves are starting
to fall, whether due to drought stress or the regular autumnal
schedule. The leaves add more fine fuels to the mix. On the
other side of the coin, the wind will be light through that
time with high pressure overhead. So, we aren`t looking at red
flag conditions, but it is very crispy.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical fall officially begins with the autumnal equinox
on Monday, September 22, 2025 @ 2:19 p.m. EDT. The Autumn 2025
season will last 89 days, 20 hours, and 43 minutes. Daylight
saving time will end just after Halloween with clocks falling
back at 2 a.m. Sunday, November 2, 2025.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Martin
FIRE WEATHER...Dangelo
CLIMATE...Steinbugl