042
FXUS61 KCTP 191232
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
832 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* A dry afternoon for a change.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Today and Monday dry, but potential for storms with heavy
rain and damaging winds on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Today and Monday dry, but potential for storms
with heavy rian and damaging winds on Tuesday.

Still areas of low clouds and fog, along with some smoke still
this morning, but at least should remain dry for a change today.

Tuesday looks similar to what we had yesterday (Saturday) with
high PW values, and strong dynamics, as an abnormally deep low
tracks just north of the Lower Great Lakes. Already had 2 such
deep systems this summer, this would be the thired one. Main
threat from this will likely be strong storms with the potential
for damaging winds. Also heavy rain, but like Saturday, speed
of storms would likely limit the risk of widespread hydro
problems. Main concern with hydro is having the activity in the
same locations as where the rain was on Saturday. Some areas
yesterday had 1 to 2 plus inches of rain, while some spots
across the north and south had next to nothing. Some areas too
wet so far this July, while others are still too dry from the
lack of rain in June.

After mid week, temperatures will trend near to a bit below
normal, as we head into the end of July.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Areas of lower clouds and fog this morning, along with some
smoke still.

Thus a mixed bag of restrictions remain across the region the
next several hours, before things improve.

Dryer conditions will persist for the next two days behind the
front, and all airfields are expected to be VFR by 16Z today.

Outlook...

Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible in showers/t-storms with cold
FROPA expected between Tuesday/Wednesday.

Thu...VFR Conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Martin
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Martin
AVIATION...Martin/Bowen