809
FXUS61 KCTP 020533
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
133 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* After a notably warm and wet July, August begins with a
  cooler and dry stretch of weather.
* Following stubborn low clouds across south central PA today, high
  pressure will bring abundant sunshine, lower humidity, and
  tranquil conditions through Tuesday.
* Temperatures gradually increase into next week with rain
  chances returning to central PA by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Low clouds have been extremely slow to erode as of early this
afternoon as 925-850 mb winds remain northeasterly and parallel
to the stratus cloud shield across the southeastern half of PA.
Soundings indicate a stout subsidence inversion which will be
tough to mix above, however, the easterly progression of an
upper trough axis crossing the Great Lakes should eventually be
enough to shunt the low level moisture off to the south and
bring clearing skies for tonight. Water vapor imagery does show
some drier air aloft moving across western PA, but this may be
slower than originally progged, perhaps owing to a more
neutrally-tilted trough axis.

High pressure will continue to build in tonight and bring
clearing skies to south central PA. Valley fog will be a good
bet with low temperatures in the mid-upper 40s in north central
PA and low-mid 50s south. Where the fog develops will be highly
dependent on how fast clearing occurs. May not see as much
farther northwest owing to drier air/dewpoints, but will likely
be a sweet spot of development in valleys in between the drier
air north and later departing cloud cover south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Slightly below average daytime highs 70-80F and lows 50-60F are
forecast along with no rainfall and plenty of sunshine through the
first weekend of August. There could be some elevated wildfire
smoke for the second half of the weekend, which could make
sunrises and sunsets a bit more orange than normal. Otherwise,
picture-perfect weather! It doesn`t get much better than this
for this time of year. No matter if you`re headed out to garage
sales, camping, cooking out, doing yard work, or anything else,
it will be a spectacular weekend for outdoor activities. Enjoy!

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The dry spell and pleasant conditions/low humidity should last
through early next week with temperatures trending warmer/back
to seasonal averages for early August. Medium range models and
ensemble data show broad upper level troughing carving out and
shifting eastward across the Appalachians which should translate
into increasing rain chances by next Wednesday and Thursday.
Humidity and temperature levels will stay at reasonable levels
with no significant heat in sight.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few clouds remain overhead in south Pennsylvania, but most
sites will experience clear skies through the overnight hours
as high pressure and dry air continues to remain in control. VFR
condition are virtually certain at all airfields outside of
BFD/LNS throughout the entire TAF cycle. At BFD/LNS, patchy fog
formation is possible with dew point depressions already below
10F; however, low confidence (~10%) in any restrictions at the
airfield so have only highlighted VCFG in the 00Z cycle due to
guidance indicating that fog will make a closer approach to the
airfield in the 10Z-12Z timeframe. After 12Z, VFR conditions are
expected throughout the rest of the TAF cycle with very high
(~100%) confidence based on model consensus.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...Dry with VFR conditions.

Wed...SHRA and TSRA chances return.

&&

.CLIMATE...
* Top 10 warmest June+July
* Top 10 warmest July

For June + July 2025:

Harrisburg:     76.8F average temperature ranks 7th warmest
Williamsport:   74.0F average temperature ranks tied 7th warmest
Altoona:        73.1F average temperature ranks tied 3rd warmest
Bradford:       67.7F average temperature ranks 2nd warmest
State College:  73.3F average temperature ranks tied 3rd warmest

For July 2025:

Harrisburg:     79.8F average temperature ranks 8th warmest
Williamsport:   76.8F average temperature ranks tied 9th warmest
Altoona:        74.7F average temperature ranks 8th warmest
Bradford:       69.5F average temperature ranks tied 4th warmest
State College:  76.0F average temperature ranks 4th warmest

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guseman/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Guseman/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Guseman/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Guseman/Banghoff/Bauco
AVIATION...NPB/Bowen
CLIMATE...Banghoff