951
FXUS61 KCTP 142334
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
634 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased the probability of precip and amounts of wet snow
  northward into Central PA and with elevation (especially at
  elevations AOA 1500 ft MSL) later Sunday afternoon and Sunday
  night

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) With a short-term predictability barrier still to be
resolved, there are increased chances for wet snow on the
margin late Sunday/Sunday night for Central/Southeast PA


2) Welcomed warmup/thaw picks up some steam next week with an
active precip pattern Wednesday into the second-to-last weekend
of February

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: With a short-term predictability barrier still to
be resolved, there are increased chances for wet snow on the
margin late Sunday/Sunday night for Central/Southeast PA

18Z guidance and more-recent hi-res guidance have all kept QPF,
and increased slightly in many cases, for the srn half of the
CWA. Have nudged PoPs higher with high confidence of precip
occurrence. P-type reasoning is unchanged with WBZ dropping thru
the event, esp after sunset. Slushy accums are expected on the
hills, and probably in the SErn and east-central zones, too.
Confidence in amounts is very low due to the very wet, slushy
nature of the snow. SLRs in the 3-4:1 range for the SE third
around 00Z paint a picture of a sloppy mess.

Prev...
12Z Sat operational and EFS/NBM guidance has trended a bit
higher, further north and slightly colder leading to a generally
nuisance winter weather event with minor impacts throughout the
higher population centers in the Lower Susq Region and valleys
in southern and central PA.

Based of the Wet Bulb Zero will reside between 1-2 kft agl
today, before gradually dropping to near or below 1 kft across
the bulk of the CWA at the time of precip onset Sunday
afternoon/early evening.

This will lead to a highly elevation-dependent mixed rain/wet
snow event for the southern half to two thirds of the state,
with SLRs generally less than 8:1. Storm total QPF will vary
from 0.20 of an inch or slightly less near and just to the
south of the I-80 corridor to as much as 0.4 to 0.5 inch near
the PA/MD border.

Varied SLRs greatly by elevation Sunday/Sunday night, but storm
total snowfall amts still remain below advisory criteria.

This next bout of precip will be associated with a strong
southern stream shortwave and associated surface low tracking
from the Lower MS Valley to the Outer Banks of NC. This is due
to more interaction with a stronger (run/run) northern stream
shortwave coming into western PA Sunday night. The eventual
northern stream energy is coming onshore the Pacific NW this
morning, and once over land should be better
assimilated/initialized in subsequent short term and hires model
runs.

The other tricky aspects of the fcst include: relatively warm
boundary layer/road temps, precip rates/banding, onset timing,
elevation, and wet bulb effects. Without going to far into the
weeds, the key takeaway for this cycle is that odds have
increased on the margin for accumulating wet snowfall across
south central and particularly southeast PA Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. The largest % chance increase is for areas
to the east of I-81 with WPC, RRFS, and NBM showing low to
moderate chances (30-50%) of snowfall totals >1 inch. The
official NDFD fcst initialized off of the 14/01Z NBM is likely a
bit too low at this point and would anticipate/front-run an
uptick in POPs and snow amounts to be more in the C-1" range
with the next cycle. There is the potential for additional
changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours so continue to
monitor especially for possible early Monday morning commute
impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Welcomed warmup/thaw picks up some steam next
week with an active precip pattern Wednesday into the second-to-
last weekend of February

Max/min temperatures over the next 7 days (2/14-2/20) are
forecast to be above the historical average for mid/late
February. To better contextualize the welcomed warmup/thaw: in
some areas, a 7-day run of positive temp departures from normal
has not happened since late September 2025!

Surface low over the western High Plains by Tuesday should track
eastward across the Dakotas/Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes
by Thursday. A broad area of stratiform precip is fcst to the
north and east of the low track near a low level baroclinic
zone or temperature gradient with cold air closer to the
Canadian border. There may be southward flex of strong arctic
high that sends a weak backdoor front into PA; but outside of
that scenario (increasing the odds for mixed precip especially
over northern PA) the dominant ptype from midweek into the
weekend looks like rain. An organized low pressure system is
expected to develop across the Midwest and Ohio Valley to close
out the work week. 12-24hr precip signals are maximized on
Wednesday and Friday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue throughout the night for most sites
as high clouds begin to build in over the region ahead of the
upper level trough and surface low expected to arrive Sunday
afternoon. The only airfield expected to see flight restrictions
will be BFD overnight tonight. Little to no winds and increased
surface moisture could result in early morning fog or very low
stratus by daybreak. Everywhere else should see VFR through
Sunday morning with ~90% confidence.

Precipitation arrives late Sunday afternoon beginning in the
Laurel Highlands as a very cold rain. Expect visibility
reductions throughout the afternoon as this stratiform shield
of precip spreads from west to east. Most everywhere will see
MVFR conditions or worse by 00Z Monday due to low clouds and
precip. Mixing of rain and snow could occur where cooling is
most efficient, the greatest possibility to see rain mixed with
snow will be at LNS and MDT.

Outlook...

Mon...Low clouds linger much of the day. IFR expected NW.

Tue...Mainly VFR.

Wed-Thu...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until midnight EST Sunday night for PAZ057-
059-063-065-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bowen