708
FXUS61 KCTP 241544
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1144 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers/isolated t-storm likely near and southwest of US-322
this afternoon

2) Noticeably cooler start the last weekend of April with
periods of rain tapering off early Sunday

3) More seasonable end to what has been one of the warmest
April`s on record

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers/t-storm likely near and southwest of
US-322 this afternoon

Focus remains on a focused NW/SE channel of elevated
instability (925-850 mb LIs of -1 to -2C) this afternoon/early
this evening that will support the development and SE mvmt of
showers/sct TSRA near a KBFD to KFIG/KUNV and KHGR line during
the early to mid afternoon hours. The axis of this convection is
progged to likely shift slowly east this evening with a
weakening trend in the SHRA/TSRA after 00Z Sat as it encounters
relatively cooler/more stable air acrs the Susq Valley.

Although CAPE is thin/weak, a few gusty (below SVR limits) low-
topped TSRA are possible between 19-23Z.

Previous...

HREF/RRFS show rain showers or an isolated t-storm developing
this afternoon within llvl convergence zone (located near or
just to the SW of US-322) associated with a backdoor cold front.
Any t-storm is expected to be non severe given weak instability
and shear profiles. A couple of slow moving downpours are
possible as PW values gradually tick higher through the evening
to ~ 1 inch. Hires models signal a relative decrease in shower
coverage into tonight with max POPS over the northern and
western periphery of the CWA by 12Z Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Noticeably cooler start the last weekend of
April with periods of rain tapering off early Sunday

Weak area of low pressure slides east-southeastward from the
thumb of lower MI to the southern Delmarva/VA Tidewater region
Saturday. Passage of upper level trough and moist east/southeast
llvl flow will help support periods of rain into Saturday night
with total QPF amounts generally in the 0.25-0.75" range. CAD
pattern will result in a 24hr maxT change on the order of 15 to
20 degrees to the downside vs. Friday. Rainfall will be of the
beneficial variety particularly across the far south central and
southeastern zones were moderate /D1/ to severe /D2/ drought
conditions exist. Rain ends in time to salvage the second half
of the last weekend of April 2026. High pressure building in
Sunday night could introduce a frost risk in some parts of the
area early Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3: More seasonable end to what has been one of the
warmest April`s on record

Most sites are tracking top 5-10 warmest April-to-date through
the 23rd. The much above normal warmth is expected to fizzle
out through month-end as the pattern shifts cooler on the
margin with more seasonable days and nights near or slightly
below the historical average heading into May.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is likely to prevail through 00Z Saturday with flight
restrictions limited to SHRA across Central PA tomorrow morning
& afternoon.

A round of scattered showers will develop along an elevated,
nearly stationary boundary this afternoon and early this evening
(18Z-24Z) from near KBFD to KUNV and KHGR, driven relatively
weak instability (HREF mean SBCAPE around 500 J/kg).

Brief visibility restrictions will be more likely with these
showers given the diurnally driven instability in place, with
brief gusty winds also possible given the inverted-V profile in
place (primarily KJST/KAOO/KUNV).

For our other sites, spottier shower coverage is expected due
to greater distance from the frontal boundary & less moisture
being available on the drier side, though visibility
restrictions to 5-6SM are possible. Moreover, a few
thundershowers may develop given the instability, though the
low-topped nature of these showers (HRRR modeled cloud top
temperatures warmer than
-30 degrees C) precludes TSRA mentions at this time.


Outlook...

Sat-Sun..Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions.

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...VFR early, with restrictions west to east as ceilings
lower and showers move in.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Bowen/Teare