713
FXUS61 KCTP 181042
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
642 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic Region through
early next week. A cold front is likely to push through
Pennsylvania late Wednesday, followed by high pressure building
in from the Great Lakes late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide Central PA
with sunny skies and light winds today. After a cold start,
expect temperatures to rebound to above average levels by
afternoon with highs well into the 60s based on the 00Z GEFS 2m
temp anomalies. Very dry air above a weak inversion in the
forecast soundings supports undercutting NBM dewpoints later
today by several degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All model guidance keeps upper level ridging over PA through the
weekend, ensuring fair weather. Surface high pressure and low-
pwat air over the region should continue to support chilly
nights into the weekend with min temps likely dipping a bit
below NBM guidance given such favorable conditions for
radiational cooling. However, abundant sunshine should result in
warm afternoons. Ensemble 2m temp plumes support highs near 70F
over much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control into early next week.
Temperatures will continue to moderate as well, and we could
see highs in the 70s areawide by Monday and Tuesday.

By the middle of next week, an upper-level trough will dig into
the Great Lakes and push a cold front across the region later
Wed or Wed night. This will likely be our next chc at any
precipitation across central PA.

This front will be followed by a cool down for the later part
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any valley fog across north central PA will mix out and
dissipate by 12-13z, followed by plentiful sunshine and just a
light ~5 kt northerly breeze. This stretch of quiet weather will
persist through the upcoming weekend.

Outlook...

Fri-Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019-026>028-
045-046-056-063-064.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Martin/Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego/Colbert