089
FXUS61 KCTP 100157
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
957 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Fine tuned rainfall timing over the next 48 hours.
* Increasing confidence in widespread frost and freezing
  temperatures for Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of light rain/showers through Mother`s Day weekend

2) Frost/freeze risk Monday night into Tuesday morning over the
western and central Alleghenies

3) Cool/unsettled pattern through much of next week; sizable
warmup on the horizon? into third week of May

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of light rain/showers through Mother`s
Day weekend

A line of showers and a few thunderstorms has produced some
gusty winds across northwest PA along and ahead of a cold front,
but will continue to weaken with southeastward extent overnight.
Hi-res guidance indicates the line should fall apart and dry up
by 2 or 3 AM as they would be arriving in JST- UNV-IPT. There
should then be a break in precip until the late morning on
Sunday when precip is generated north of the front as the base
of the long- wave trough/low swings across the Great Lakes.
Models differ on the poleward extent of precip that should be
generated Sunday night and Monday.

Will keep a low chance of PoPs in the southeast through Monday
morning as the cold front won`t quite clear the region until
then. Rainfall amounts won`t be too impressive, with generally
less than a quarter inch for everyone.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze risk Monday night into Tuesday
morning over the western and central Alleghenies

Confidence is increasing for another frost/freeze situation
Monday night into early Tuesday morning over the western and
central Alleghenies (to the northwest of I-81).

But first...Clouds may slow cooling Sunday night over the NW.
But, there is certainly a low (20-40%) chc for frost/freeze in
the nrn tier Monday morning. The possibility is highest
then/there if no additional clouds move across LE into PA and
the high stuff clearing to the SE does as expected. Will
continue to mention frost for the nrn tier Monday AM.

The almost-certain time for a frost and freeze to happen next is
Monday night/Tuesday morning. Forecast min temps for Tuesday
morning have been dropping slowly and consistently over the
past few days. Clearing should be near-total. A light wind in
the SE and generally warmer temps should limit the frost
potential SE of Blue Mountain to a minimum. There is a medium to
high (60-80%) confidence in a freeze for the nrn Alleghenies,
even at this range (Day 3.5), given the constant downward trend
in all guidance minTs and favorable sky and wind. Frost is
expected (90-100%) NW of AOO-UNV-IPT. Even AOO and UNV and the
higher valleys S/SW of IPT should frost up Tuesday morning. As
we get closer to the event, we`ll likely be issuing frost
advisories and freeze warnings should the set up/pattern look
as it does right now.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Cool/unsettled pattern through much of next
week; sizable warmup on the horizon? into the 3rd week of May

Mean troughing keeps cool/unsettled pattern in place through
much of next week with below normal temperatures and several
opportunities for rain next Wednesday-Friday.

There are signs of a pattern shift starting next weekend (~May
15-16) that returns more typical/warmer late Spring conditions
to central PA heading into Memorial Day or the "unofficial"
start of Summer.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to traverse
northwest PA this evening, and brought a short period of
restrictions to KBFD. Little - if any - restrictions are
anticipated from this line of showers at any other airfield as
it is progged to fall apart with southeastward extent. The front
could create some LLWS concerns as it passes.

Weak south/southeast flow could result in some low clouds/fog in
the southeast late tonight, with restrictions favored at LNS and
possible at MDT/IPT. Uncertainty remains as to the westward
extent of restrictions, but we are already seeing fog in
southeast PA, leading to increased confidence in its expansion.

After fog mixes out on Sunday morning, VFR conditions will hold
until another in a series of weak upper level storms systems
brings another chance for showers and lower conditions again
late in the day on Sunday. Light/stratiform rain will be over
the central airfields (JST/AOO/UNV/IPT) during the middle of the
day and then move southeastward over MDT and LNS in the
afternoon/evening.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...VFR conditions expected to prevail.

Wed...Restrictions possible with rain.

Thu...Lingering clouds and showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Bowen
AVIATION...Banghoff