964
FXUS61 KCTP 081541
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1041 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* Breezy and unseasonably mild end to the week; nice start to
  the weekend
* Elevated to critical risk of wildfire spread today; outdoor
  burning is not recommended.
* Much needed rain arrives Sunday PM and tapers to showers early
  Monday; next period of rain during second half of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Plenty of sunshine over most of CPA today; watching stratocu
expanding downwind of the Great Lakes which should reach the
northern tier this afternoon.

Winds are starting to pick up and expect a breezy end to the
week with frequent gusts 20-30 mph through the afternoon into
the evening.

Coordination with fire partners lead to the expansion of the Red
Flag Warning and SPS issuance for elevated to high (critical)
risk of wildfire spread.

We made minor incremental adjustments to T/Td based on the
latest obs trends; will be another mild day by early November
standards with maxT range 55-70F from NW to SE or +10-15 degrees
above the historical average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shortwave trough diving across southern Ontario/Quebec will
push a moisture-starved cold front across Central PA late this
evening and early tonight. 8H temps drop below 0C over the NE
half of the state, and clear sky will help sfc temps drop into
the 20s N, and 30s S of I-80. The wind and RH only rising to
80-85% by morning will keep fog at bay for the most part. But,
there still could be a couple of patches, mainly in the NW
toward sunrise as the wind slackens a little there.

Another sunny day is in store for Saturday under strong, but
migratory high pressure. Any low clouds in the N in the AM will
go away. Maxes will be quite a bit cooler on Sat vs Fri - esp
in the SE where the temps will be 10-15F cooler in the aftn. No
downslope help there. Dry wx holds Saturday night, as the high
pressure dome continues to migrate eastward along the Mid
Atlantic coast. The wind turns around to the S overnight in the
west, and keep temps a little milder (m30s) there than the east
(l30s).

NBM data continues to support a very high probability (>80%) of
much needed rain spreading west to east later Sunday into
Sunday night associated with strong warm/moisture advection via
LLJ downstream of a stacked low pressure system tracking
eastward from the North-Central Plains into the Great Lakes. A
plume of +2-3SD pwat (1-1.2") overrunning an approaching warm
front supports high POPs in the aftn W and perhaps even into the
east in the early evening. The GFS is about 5-7hrs faster with
the rain arrival and exit vs the NAM. The good news is that
some much-needed rainfall will occur for the whole area. SOme
members of the SREF, GEFS and NBM do get close to an inch for
spots here and there, but the consensus is closer to half an
inch for most of the CWA. With the recent/record dryness,
hedging bets slightly lower is probably a good move. WPC puts
0.70" in wrn PA, and just 0.40" in the central mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Medium range guidance all track a weakening upper low north of
PA Sunday night, pushing an associated cold front through the
region. Showers should taper off from west to east overnight,
as drier air works in behind the exiting front. Most likely rain
totals by Monday morning based on latest ensembles is between
0.33 and 0.50 inches.

Generally fair and mild conditions appear likely Monday, as
large scale subsidence overspreads PA behind the departing
remnant upper low. There may be enough low level instability to
produce a few lingering showers over the N Mtns, but most
locations should be dry with a mix of sun and cumulus based on
model RH profiles. A secondary, moisture-starved cold front is
progged to push southeast across the state Monday evening,
perhaps accompanied by a few showers over the NW Mtns.

Fair and seasonable conditions currently look likely Tuesday
and Wednesday, as upper level ridging builds toward the area
from the Midwest. The next chance of rain comes Wed night into
Thursday, as the upper flow pattern across North America becomes
more amplified. There is remains considerable model agreement
that a cold front will be approaching from the Midwest by Wed
PM. However, there remains plenty of uncertainty with regard to
the exact timing of the fropa in Central PA or whether moisture
from the remnants of Rafael train north ahead of the front or
not. The latest EPS plumes still indicate some chance of a
significant (1 inch+) rainfall, but most members indicate only
modest rain totals owing to a lack of a tropical connection.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing over the majority
of the airspace over the next 24 hours. MVFR to low VFR cigs
are possible in the northern tier as secondary cold front
sweeps downwind of the lower Great Lakes later today. Sfc wind
gusts 20-25kts from 280-310 degrees will gradually fade this
evening into early tonight.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...Patchy AM valley fog possible, mainly north.
Otherwise, predominantly VFR.

Sun(late)-Mon...Widespread rain showers with restrictions
possible.

Tue...Lingering SHRA NW early; otherwise, VFR w/ no sig wx.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical (high) risk of wildfire spread today with
Red Flag Warnings and SPS headlines in effect until 6pm. Fire
partners have mentioned that some erratic fire behavior even
with RH>30%. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Low humidity is again expected on Saturday with no rise in fuel
moisture, but the wind will decrease due to high pressure moving
over the Commonwealth. No SPS is expected at this time post
coordination with fire partners.

A widespread wetting rainfall of 0.25"-0.75" is expected on
Sunday and Sunday night as a frontal system moves through the
state from west to east.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ019-
025>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...NPB/Steinbugl
FIRE WEATHER...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Banghoff