354
FXUS61 KCTP 040327
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1127 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions arrive tonight
  and continue through Independence Day.
* Trending warmer and more humid but rain-free this weekend.
* Hot and unsettled weather returns next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Isolated and showers and storms have moved out of Pennsylvania
this evening with a cold front now clear of the area. In its
wake, significantly drier air with dewpoints in the 50s are
pouring into the Commonwealth. By daybreak Friday, dewpoints
could be in the mid 40s across the northwest mountains thanks to
dewpoints dipping to under half an inch.

Could see some patchy valley fog tonight, both in the northwest
mountains where the deepest valleys could see the most efficient
radiational cooling and in the southeast where rainfall
moistened the ground. Significantly drier air pouring in will be
a limiting factor for fog potential, though.

Morning ranging from the upper 40s in the northwest mountains to
low 60s in the southeast will be a welcome change relative to
recent warm/humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday looks like a stellar Independence Day.

No risk of any precip, and humidity dipping to bone dry levels
in the afternoon. Will continue to deviate to the low side from
the NBM dewpoints for Fri and Sat afternoons, with Friday being
the largest diff in Td.

Light N wind and plenty of sunshine Fri. Very dry air just
above the sfc in the AM and mixing to ~5kft in the aftn could
drop dewpoints into the 40s across the Allegheny Plateau and
M50s in the SE. That may not be enough of a move, but will start
with that. High temps Friday in the U70s to M80s are very
seasonable, and we`ll probably see temps a few deg F higher Sat
aftn. High pressure building SE over the Commonwealth will
provide dry conditions for both days.

Dewpoints are going to be low enough on Sat AM that there won`t
be much, if any, fog. Then, the wind turns Swrly, and humidity
levels start to creep upward during the long holiday weekend,
but no rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Most of the day Sunday looks hot and mostly sunny with highs in
the upper 80s. PoPs increase into Monday and Tuesday as a
trough arrives and taps into some tropical moisture off the
East Coast. Very warm weather will continue on Monday with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Temps will fall a few degrees into
Tue. PoPs drop into the 20-40 pct range on Wed as heights
briefly rise over the area, before the PoPs rise again Thursday
with the approach of another shortwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Great weather overnight into the upcoming holiday weekend, as
high pressure build into the area with rather dry air to start
with for early July. Often the 4th of July can be active with
thunderstorms.

The potential for fog overnight is low, given most of the
area did not get rain today and now the drier air is working
into the area.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

Mon-Tue...Potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Colbert
AVIATION...Martin